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Stocks
Plains GP Holdings, L.P.
PAGP

PAGP Plains GP Holdings LP

Plains GP Holdings LP · NASDAQ
Market Closed
27.99
▲ ⁦+0.36%⁩ (+0.10)
Market Cap$5.5B
Beta0.45
52w Low52w High
16.6828.70
Last Week
⁦-1.27%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.60%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+12.50%⁩
Last Year
⁦+48.80%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall97
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
90
10.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
65
14.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
58
13.4%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
65
2.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
85
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
98
34.2%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
72
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$28
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$26
⁦-9%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$23–$28⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$202
⁦+622%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$26–$202⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$25.50
⁦-8.9%⁩
Current Price $27.99·Median $25.50
Low
$23.00
High
$28.00
Current price
$27.99
Average target
$25.50
Street summary

Analyst Forecast Analysis for PAGP Stock

Price targets for Plains GP Holdings have seen notable stability over the past thirty days, with the average price target settling at $25 following a slight upward revision of 1.63% in late June. This stability reflects limited variance among analysts (between $23 and $27), noting that the current stock price ($26.51) already exceeds the average forecast, suggesting a potential overvaluation from the perspective of current analysts.

As of 2026-07-23
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.27
Hold
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
1
6
6
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.13 → 3.27
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-06-03
    Goldman Sachs
    SellNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-05-20
    Morgan Stanley
    —· $26.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.00x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.98x
    3.36x26.89x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.31x
    2.12x16.98x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    42.8%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.2%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    309.2%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    7.8%
    7.8%72.1%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    13.4%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.92x
    0.40x3.19x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-08 data

Company Overview

Plains GP Holdings LP, listed under the ticker PAGP, operates in North American energy infrastructure, with an increasing focus on crude oil transportation and storage and connecting production regions, particularly the Permian Basin, to end markets. Its cash-generation capacity depends on fees associated with asset utilization, alongside commercial optimization opportunities arising from timing, location, and quality differentials and market volatility. The company is targeting a transition into a pure-play crude oil midstream business following the sale of its natural gas liquids assets, while benefiting from Cactus III and simplifying its cost structure.

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue reached $17.7 billion, gross profit was $1.1 billion, and net income was $389 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 6.2% and a net income margin of approximately 2.2%. These results compare with revenue of $12.5 billion and net income of $20 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal year 2026, the company recorded revenue of $52.3 billion, gross profit of $4.1 billion, and net income of $554 million.

Quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 showed that the crude oil business was the largest contributor to adjusted operating earnings, generating $582 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, compared with $145 million for the natural gas liquids business, while the total attributable to PAGP was approximately $730 million. The natural gas liquids business benefited from higher cross-border flows, increased recovery production, and improved fractionation spreads in March 2026, while the crude oil business was affected by winter weather, maintenance, and the timing of minimum volume commitments.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On May 8, 2026, management raised the midpoint of its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance for fiscal year 2026 by $130 million to $2.88 billion, comprising a $70 million increase for the natural gas liquids business and $60 million for the crude oil business.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company expects to generate approximately $1.85 billion in adjusted free cash flow in fiscal year 2026, excluding changes in assets and liabilities and proceeds from the sale of the natural gas liquids assets, supporting debt reduction and capital distributions within its stated framework.
  • The company estimates net proceeds from the sale of the natural gas liquids assets at approximately $3.3 billion, $100 million above the previous estimate, and intends to use slightly more than $3 billion to repay debt. The sale would reduce pro forma leverage from 4.1 times at the end of quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 to approximately 3.5 times, with a target of approaching the lower end of the 3.25 to 3.75 times range by the end of fiscal year 2026.
  • Cactus III supports the growth trajectory through its full-period contribution in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 and the availability of phased expansions linked to customer demand and commercial contracts. Management also noted the addition of approximately 15 drilling rigs and estimated that 200 thousand to 300 thousand barrels per day of production capacity was constrained behind pipelines in the Permian Basin, which could increase volumes as natural gas transportation constraints ease.
  • Operational simplification initiatives are targeting annual efficiencies of $50 million in fiscal year 2026, followed by an additional $50 million in fiscal year 2027. On May 8, 2026, management confirmed that implementation was proceeding according to plan, without raising the total target of $100 million through fiscal year 2027.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance to $2.88 billion for fiscal year 2026 reflects stronger performance in natural gas liquids and optimization opportunities, a large portion of which has been secured, rather than merely an assumption that elevated commodity prices will persist.
    • +The sale of the natural gas liquids assets for expected net proceeds of $3.3 billion could bring leverage back to approximately 3.5 times after repaying more than $3 billion of debt and subsequently move it closer to the lower end of the target range.
    • +The combination of Cactus III, higher long-haul transportation volumes, improved margins, and additional interest from producers in Canada and the United States gives the company growth avenues linked to existing assets, new connections, and phased expansions.
    • +Expected adjusted free cash flow of $1.85 billion in fiscal year 2026 provides flexibility to fund investments, distribution growth, and the redemption of preferred securities or repurchase of units, depending on leverage levels and available opportunities.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Fiscal year 2026 guidance assumes that crude oil production in the Permian Basin will remain approximately flat year over year, while increased activity continues to be constrained by natural gas transportation capacity and producers' need for greater clarity on the forward price curve. Therefore, PAGP's benefit from additional volumes may be delayed until fiscal year 2027 or beyond.
    • −The calculated gross margin declined from approximately 7.8% in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 to approximately 6.2% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, despite revenue increasing from $12.5 billion to $17.7 billion, highlighting that revenue growth does not necessarily translate into gross profit at the same rate.
    • −The natural gas liquids asset transaction with Keyera faces a legal challenge from Competition Bureau, according to the May 8, 2026 call. Although management said the lawsuit does not prevent closing, the dispute represents regulatory and legal risk to completing the transaction and achieving the planned debt reduction and operational transition.
    • −Part of the increase in crude oil business guidance depends on optimization opportunities and market differentials related to volatility, prices, location, and quality, and management explained that the continuation of these conditions is difficult to predict beyond a period of only 60 to 70 days. Hedging at levels of approximately $60 to $65 per barrel also limited fiscal year 2026's benefit from higher oil prices.
    • −Pro forma leverage reached 4.1 times at the end of quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 following the acquisition of Cactus III, above the target range of 3.25 to 3.75 times. Reducing it to approximately 3.5 times depends on completing the sale of the natural gas liquids assets and directing more than $3 billion of the proceeds toward debt repayment.
    • −No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, limiting the ability to assess valuation through an earnings multiple. The range of analyst targets from $23 to $28 is also relatively wide and reflects a meaningful divergence in estimating the impact of debt reduction and growth versus execution and regulatory risks.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $25.4, a low of $23, and a high of $28. The average is approximately 10% below the 52-week range high of $28.28, while the highest target nearly matches it. The stock's 52-week range is $16.68 to $28.28, but the absence of an available price-to-earnings ratio makes valuation more dependent on achieving the $2.88 billion adjusted earnings guidance, completing the sale of the natural gas liquids assets, and reducing leverage amid the dispute with Competition Bureau.

    BuyAnalyst target: $25.4(-9.3%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the core business supporting PAGP stock after the sale of the natural gas liquids assets?

    Plains GP Holdings LP is targeting a transition into a pure-play crude oil midstream company after selling its natural gas liquids assets. The crude oil business generated $582 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026, compared with $145 million for the natural gas liquids business. The business relies on transportation, storage, and connectivity networks in major production regions such as the Permian, in addition to optimization opportunities associated with timing, location, and quality differentials.

    Why did PAGP raise its fiscal year 2026 guidance?

    On May 8, 2026, management raised the midpoint of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance by $130 million to $2.88 billion. A $70 million increase came from the natural gas liquids business due to outperformance in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 and continued ownership of the assets through May 2026, while $60 million came from the crude oil business. Crude oil drivers included secured optimization opportunities, higher FERC tariffs, and increased spot-tariff and West Coast volumes.

    How will the sale of the natural gas liquids assets affect PAGP's balance sheet?

    The company expects net proceeds of $3.3 billion from the sale, $100 million above its previous estimate. It plans to use slightly more than $3 billion to repay a term loan, outstanding commercial paper, and a $750 million note due during fiscal year 2026. Management expects pro forma leverage to decline from 4.1 times at the end of quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 to approximately 3.5 times after deploying the proceeds.

    How important is Cactus III to PAGP's growth?

    Cactus III made a full-period contribution to quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 results and is one of three drivers identified by management for growth, alongside the sale of the natural gas liquids assets and operational simplification. The system has expansion capacity that can be added in phases instead of through one large expansion project, subject to demand and commercial contracts. Management estimated that 200 thousand to 300 thousand barrels per day of oil was constrained behind pipelines in the Permian, which could support volumes when natural gas transportation constraints ease.

    What are the main risks to PAGP's fiscal year 2026 results?

    The company assumes Permian production will remain approximately flat during fiscal year 2026, and natural gas transportation constraints continue to limit the conversion of production capacity into actual volumes. The Keyera transaction also faces a lawsuit from Competition Bureau, despite management's confirmation on May 8, 2026 that the lawsuit does not prevent the parties from closing. In addition, the continuation of volatility-related optimization opportunities is difficult to guarantee, while hedging near the $60 to $65 per barrel range reduced the guidance's benefit from higher oil prices.

    What does analyst consensus indicate about PAGP stock's valuation?

    The analyst consensus rating for the stock is “Buy,” and the average price target is $25.4. The target range extends from $23 to $28, compared with a 52-week range of $16.68 to $28.28, and the average target is approximately 10% below the annual high. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so the stock's valuation largely depends on achieving the $2.88 billion adjusted earnings guidance and reducing leverage after the sale of the natural gas liquids assets.