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Stocks
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall69
Strong — clearly above market medianTurnaroundF 6/9SafeBetter than 69% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
71
15.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
18
-1.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
46
8.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
56
3.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
54
2.56%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
94
17.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
61
7▲3Around median
PAG

PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
215.91
▼ ⁦-0.32%⁩ (-0.70)
Market Cap$14.2B
Beta0.83
52w Low52w High
140.12224.45
Last Week
⁦-1.69%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.96%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+26.25%⁩
Last Year
⁦+15.72%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$216
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$210
⁦-3%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$190–$225⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$108
⁦-50%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.0⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$108–$210⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$208.75
⁦-3.3%⁩
Current Price $215.91·Median $210.00
Low
$190.00
High
$225.00
Current price
$215.91
Average target
$208.75
Street summary

A slight improvement in consensus while the outlook remains cautious

Bearish tilt

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 207.50 to 208.75, an increase of 0.6%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and 1 day. The number of analysts increased from 3 to 4, but the target range remains wide, between 190 and 225, with a median of 210, all below the current price of 216.86, reflecting limited upside expectations according to the consensus.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.30
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦10 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
20%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
16%
Analyst ratings over time10 analysts rating
1
1
8
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.91 → 3.30
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-19
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-24
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-23
    Citigroup
    BuyNeutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.69x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.40x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.02x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.4%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.6%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -11.6%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    16.1%
    12.0%66.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    8.0%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.82x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.6%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    40.2%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.08
    -2.656.14
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Penske Automotive Group operates through a diversified model combining new and used vehicle sales, maintenance services and parts, commercial truck retailing, as well as its stake in Penske Transportation Solutions and its commercial vehicle and power systems businesses in Australia. During Q2 fiscal 2026, the company sold approximately 125 thousand new and used vehicles and more than 5,400 commercial trucks, while benefiting from sales revenue, service and parts margins, and equity income from Penske Transportation Solutions. International operations represented an important part of the mix, generating revenue of $3.2 billion, while Premier Truck Group generated revenue of $928 million and gross profit of $143 million.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue increased 6% to $8.5 billion, while gross profit according to EDGAR data reached approximately $1.4 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of about 16.5%. Net income reached $260.4 million and earnings per share were $3.96, compared with net income of $234.5 million and earnings per share of $3.56 in Q1 fiscal 2026. The results included a gain of approximately $30 million from dealership sales; excluding it, adjusted net income was $238 million and adjusted earnings per share were $3.62.

Revenue for the twelve months ended in 2026 reached approximately $32.9 billion, with gross profit of $5.3 billion, net income of $936 million, and earnings per share of approximately $14.24, compared with revenue of $31.8 billion and net income of $935.4 million in fiscal 2025. During the quarter, same-store new and used vehicle units increased 5%, same-store service and parts revenue rose 2%, and gross profit increased 3%, with the margin for this business improving by 60 basis points year over year and 80 basis points sequentially.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The non-binding proposal from Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. to acquire the remaining shares for cash at $210 per share is a key factor for the stock; on August 10, 2026, the independent special committee appointed Moelis & Company as financial advisor and Paul, Weiss as legal advisor to evaluate the proposal, without announcing a definitive agreement.
  • Management expects most of Premier Truck Group's backlog of approximately 10,400 trucks to convert into sales during the second half of 2026, after Class 8 truck orders increased 170% in the quarter and the industry's order backlog reached 186 thousand units, equivalent to approximately 8.5 months of production.
  • Used truck sales at Premier Truck Group increased 65% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while gross profit per unit rose by more than $2,000 sequentially and approximately $1,900 year over year, supported by improving spot freight rates and tightening capacity in the transportation market.
  • International operations generated revenue of $3.2 billion, up 10%, driven by a 14% increase in new units in the United Kingdom and a 7% increase in used units at comparable international stores. In Australia, off-highway business revenue increased 63%, and the company secured orders exceeding $300 million during the quarter, raising secured orders for 2026 to approximately $660 million.
  • The company generated $418 million in operating cash flow and $829 million in EBITDA during the first half of 2026, then reduced long-term debt by $141 million during the quarter. It also raised the quarterly dividend to $1.44 per share, marking the twenty-third consecutive quarterly increase, and repurchased 265 thousand shares for $43 million during the first half.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Penske Automotive Group's diversification across automobiles, commercial trucks, services and parts, Penske Transportation Solutions, and power systems provides multiple sources of profit; this was reflected in Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 6% to $8.5 billion, with net income rising sequentially to $260.4 million.
  • +The truck business has a clear operating catalyst, as the company expects to deliver approximately 10 thousand trucks in the second half of 2026, compared with approximately 6 thousand in the first half, alongside Premier Truck Group's backlog of 10,400 units and improving used truck demand and margins.
  • +The balance sheet supports capital allocation flexibility; liquidity was approximately $1.4 billion at the end of June 2026, non-vehicle-related long-term debt was $2.5 billion, and the leverage ratio remained at 1.7 times after debt was reduced by $141 million during the quarter.
  • +The Australian operations provide a growth path distinct from automotive retailing, with a market share exceeding 75% in power solutions with capacity above 1,250 kilowatts, secured orders of approximately $660 million for 2026, and a stated target of reaching 1 billion Australian dollars in data center revenue by 2030.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analysts' average price target is $208.75, within a range of $190 to $225, while the consensus rates the stock as “Neutral.” The average is approximately 8% below the 52-week range high of $227 and is also close to the initial non-binding acquisition offer of $210, making the outcome of the special committee's review an important valuation factor without any guarantee that the transaction will be completed. The wide 52-week range between $140.12 and $227, together with pressures in the United Kingdom, rental operations, and interest rates, indicates the need to balance the offer catalyst against operating risks.

HoldAnalyst target: $208.75(-3.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were PAG's most important results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Penske Automotive Group generated revenue of $8.5 billion, up 6%, and gross profit of approximately $1.4 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026. Net income was $260.4 million and earnings per share were $3.96, while adjusted earnings per share reached $3.62 after excluding a gain of approximately $30 million from dealership sales. The group also sold approximately 125 thousand new and used vehicles and more than 5,400 commercial trucks during the quarter.

What is the status of the proposal to take Penske Automotive Group private?

The company received an initial non-binding proposal from Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. to purchase the remaining shares for cash at $210 per share. The board of directors formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate the proposal, and on August 10, 2026, the committee appointed Moelis & Company as financial advisor and Paul, Weiss as legal advisor. The data do not include an announcement of a definitive agreement or a timeline for completing the transaction, so the proposal remains under evaluation.

Why does PAG expect the truck business to improve in the second half of 2026?

Industry Class 8 truck orders increased 170% during Q2 fiscal 2026, and the order backlog reached 186 thousand units, equivalent to approximately 8.5 months of production. Premier Truck Group's backlog reached approximately 10,400 units, and management expects to deliver most of them in the second half of 2026, with approximately 10 thousand deliveries expected versus about 6 thousand in the first half. Used truck sales also increased 65%, and profit per unit improved by more than $2,000 sequentially.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The automotive environment in the United Kingdom remains challenging due to taxes, affordability, reductions in Motability programs, and electric transition requirements; the zero-emission vehicle mandate is 33% in 2026 versus a market share of 25%, with the mandate set to rise to 38% in 2027.
  • −The company faces intensifying competition in the United Kingdom, where the share of Chinese brands increased from 7.5% to more than 15% and exceeded 16% in June 2026. Although Penske's focus there is weighted toward the premium segment, the group has begun adding Chinese brands at ten locations, reflecting a material change in the market structure.
  • −The rental business at Penske Transportation Solutions remains under pressure; rental revenue declined 12% and logistics revenue declined 2% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while gains from used truck sales decreased by $13 million as the fleet was reduced from 414 thousand vehicles in June 2025 to just under 380 thousand.
  • −Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased 3% and represented 71.8% of gross profit in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with 69.8% a year earlier, due to higher employee, benefits, information technology, rent, and vehicle maintenance costs. Other interest expense also increased by $11 million because of borrowing costs associated with acquisitions, and the company estimates that a 25-basis-point change in interest rates affects interest expense by approximately $15 million.
  • −Premier Truck Group relies exclusively on Daimler Truck North America under a framework that currently prevents it from acquiring competing brands within the product lines covered by Daimler. Although management indicated that Daimler represents approximately 40% of the market and that the group has room to grow within its network, this relationship limits brand diversification in the truck business.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 2, 2026, recorded two sales and no purchases, for net sales of approximately $495,808. This remains a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data contain no evidence to the contrary.
How important is Penske Transportation Solutions to PAG's results?

Equity income from Penske Transportation Solutions reached approximately $57 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 7% from $54 million. Performance improved due to higher fleet utilization and lower operating and interest costs, despite a 12% decline in rental revenue and a $13 million decrease in gains from used truck sales. The business ended the quarter with a fleet of just under 380 thousand vehicles, compared with approximately 414 thousand at the end of June 2025, after selling 9,170 units during the quarter.

How do the Australian operations contribute to PAG's growth?

The commercial vehicle and power systems business in Australia derives approximately one-third of its revenue from on-highway operations and two-thirds from off-highway operations, including mining, defense, rail, marine, and power solutions. Off-highway business revenue increased 63% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the company secured orders exceeding $300 million, raising secured orders for 2026 to approximately $660 million. The company holds a share exceeding 75% of the Australian power solutions market above 1,250 kilowatts and targets 1 billion Australian dollars in data center revenue by 2030.

Can PAG fund dividends and acquisitions while reducing debt?

The company generated $418 million in operating cash flow during the first half of 2026, and its capital expenditures were $134 million. During the same period, it acquired two Lexus dealerships with estimated annual revenue of approximately $450 million, repurchased 265 thousand shares for $43 million, and raised the quarterly dividend to $1.44 per share. At the end of June 2026, liquidity was approximately $1.4 billion and leverage was 1.7 times, after reducing long-term debt by $141 million during the quarter.