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Home
Stocks
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketTurnaroundF 6/9Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
89
6.7x▲17.4xTop tier
▸
Growth
54
14.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
49
8.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
60
2.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
81
7.88%▲0.18%Top tier
▸
Momentum
88
52.8%▲1.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
77
7▲3Top tier
PAA

PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. · NASDAQ
Market Open
24.09
▲ ⁦+0.12%⁩ (+0.03)
Market Cap$17.0B
Beta0.49
52w Low52w High
15.6926.39
Last Week
⁦+1.56%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.24%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+5.52%⁩
Last Year
⁦+44.17%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$24⁩
  • Discounted cash flow model
    ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate · follows analysts' earnings estimates, then ⁦0%⁩ growth
    ⁦$34⁩
    ⁦+40%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$25⁩–⁦$47⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦−47%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Next year's earnings × ⁦14.8⁩, median of 33 companies
    ⁦$27⁩
    ⁦+14%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$22⁩–⁦$39⁩⁩
  • Analyst targets
    6 analysts
    ⁦$26⁩
    ⁦+9%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$24⁩–⁦$30⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+18%⁩

The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today

  • Value with no growth
    Today's after-tax operating profit, held flat forever, at a ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate
    ⁦$13⁩
    ⁦−46%⁩

⁦46%⁩ of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.

1
methods value it above the price
2
methods near the price
0
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.31%⁩ as of ⁦2026-10-05⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$26.22
⁦+8.8%⁩
Current Price $24.09·Median $26.00
Low
$24.00
High
$30.00
Current price
$24.09
Average target
$26.22
Street summary

Modest increase in the average price target

Bullish tilt

The average price target rose over 30 days from 24.88 to 26.22, an increase of 5.39%, while the number of analysts remained at 6. The average and the number of analysts have not changed over the last 7 days. The current price target ranges from 24 to 30, with a median of 26, reflecting variation among estimates despite the improvement in the average.

As of 2026-10-05
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+5.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.35
Hold
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
25%
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
2
6
7
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.26 → 3.35
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-21
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-21
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-21
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    6.70x
    3.47x27.77x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.00x
    3.20x25.63x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.64x
    2.04x16.29x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    14.0%
    -20.3%17.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.2%
    -19.4%63.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    297.5%
    -142.3%261.9%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    7.8%
    7.9%72.0%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    8.0%
    -11.7%20.9%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.91x
    0.41x3.25x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    7.9%
    0.0%9.1%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    48.4%
    13.8%148.4%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-08-29Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. operates infrastructure for gathering and transporting crude oil and connecting it to storage, refining, and export hubs in North America, with a major presence in the Permian Basin and routes to Corpus Christi, Houston, and Cushing. Following the sale of its Canadian natural gas liquids business in May 2026, the company has become more focused on crude oil; its revenue and cash flows come from gathering systems, pipelines, and related contracts, as well as marketing opportunities that capitalize on timing, quality, and location differentials and market volatility.

In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported revenue of $17.7 billion, gross profit of $1.1 billion, and net income of $1.8 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 6.2% and a net income margin of approximately 10.2%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization attributable to Plains were approximately $738 million, including $690 million from the crude oil segment and $40 million from the natural gas liquids segment, noting that the latter segment's contribution reflects the closing of its sale in mid-May 2026.

For the last 12 months ended in 2026, revenue was $45.3 billion, gross profit was $3.8 billion, and net income was $1.1 billion, compared with revenue of $44.3 billion and net income of $1.4 billion in fiscal year 2025. Fiscal Q2 2026 results reflect improvement in the crude oil segment driven by Cactus III savings, efficiencies, and market opportunities, and also included a nonrecurring environmental remediation expense of $14 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its forecast for Permian Basin production growth in 2026 to between 100 thousand and 200 thousand barrels per day on an exit-to-exit basis compared with 2025, up from a previous forecast of nearly flat production, attributing the increase primarily to gas takeaway capacity coming online earlier than expected.
  • The company approved an expansion of Cactus III to add 75 thousand barrels per day, increasing the pipeline's total capacity to 725 thousand barrels per day, and said its marketing affiliate can immediately fill the space until it is gradually converted to term contracts.
  • Plains increased 2026 growth capital spending from $350 million to a range of $400–450 million to fund quick-turn expansions in the Permian, Canada, and Cactus III; the dedicated acreage for the POPB joint venture in the Permian increased to approximately 5.1 million acres.
  • The company is targeting $50 million in efficiencies by the end of 2026 and had achieved slightly less than half of that amount through fiscal Q2 2026, along with an additional $50 million targeted by the end of 2027 through simplifying the organizational structure, aligning trucking operations, and consolidating certain marketing offices.
  • Management expects to generate approximately $1.75 billion in free cash flow in 2026 while maintaining adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance at $2.88 billion, plus or minus $75 million; pro forma leverage also declined to 3.3 times after debt was reduced by approximately $2.9 billion following the sale of the natural gas liquids business.
  • The company recorded all-time-high crude oil exports through the Gulf Coast in fiscal Q2 2026, while management noted that utilization of the Corpus Christi and Houston markets is approaching 90% and that new buyers are interested in contracts providing greater supply security.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The increase in expected Permian production growth to 100–200 thousand barrels per day in 2026 represents a direct growth driver for the Plains network, particularly with the POPB joint venture having approximately 5.1 million dedicated acres and expansions supported by producer commitments.
  • +The Cactus III expansion adds 75 thousand barrels per day of capacity at a cost management described as being in the tens of millions of dollars, with the marketing affiliate able to use it quickly and the potential to convert it later to term contracts.
  • +The sale of the Canadian natural gas liquids business reduced debt by approximately $2.9 billion and brought pro forma leverage to 3.3 times, giving the company flexibility among funding organic growth, additional acquisitions, and returning cash to unitholders.
  • +The free cash flow target of approximately $1.75 billion in 2026, together with targeted efficiencies of $50 million in 2026 and an additional $50 million in 2027, supports the company's ability to fund its expansions and maintain its capital allocation framework.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analysts' average price target is $24.88, within a relatively narrow range of $23 to $27, and the stock has a consensus “Buy” rating. The average target is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $15.69–$25.75, while the highest target exceeds that level; no price-to-earnings ratio is available to use in validating the valuation, and the positive targets should be weighed against unchanged 2026 earnings guidance and higher capital spending.

BuyAnalyst target: $24.88(+3.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove PAA's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Plains generated revenue of $17.7 billion, gross profit of $1.1 billion, and net income of $1.8 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization attributable to Plains were approximately $738 million, including $690 million from the crude oil segment. Management attributed the segment's improvement to Cactus III savings, efficiencies, market opportunities, and the absence of headwinds that appeared in fiscal Q1 2026. Results also included a nonrecurring environmental remediation expense of $14 million, which the company does not expect to recur in the second half of 2026.

Why is the Cactus III expansion important for PAA stock?

The expansion adds 75 thousand barrels per day to Cactus III, increasing its total capacity to 725 thousand barrels per day. Management said on the August 7, 2026 call that it was completed faster and at a lower cost than expected and that its cost was in the tens of millions of dollars, excluding the announced earn-out amount. The marketing affiliate can quickly fill the new capacity and benefit from market volatility, but the long-term goal is to convert it to term contracts. Subsequent expansions will take longer and require firm customer commitments.

How did Plains' outlook for Permian Basin production change in 2026?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The business model has become more concentrated in crude oil following the sale of the Canadian natural gas liquids business in May 2026, to the point that management is considering discontinuing separate reporting of the natural gas liquids segment beginning in fiscal Q3 2026; this increases the dependence of results on crude oil volumes, price differentials, and activity in the Permian and Canada.
  • −Management maintained 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance at $2.88 billion, plus or minus $75 million, despite raising its Permian production growth forecast; it explained that the greatest impact from the new volumes will appear in 2027 and that the second half of 2026 already assumes strong performance.
  • −2026 growth capital spending was increased to $400–450 million from $350 million, and management expects some spending on projects spanning 18 to 24 months to continue into 2027 and potentially 2028; this increases execution and contracting risks if the expected increase in demand does not translate into cash flows at the planned level.
  • −The long-term benefit from the new Cactus III capacity depends on securing appropriate contracts; the marketing affiliate can currently fill the additional 75 thousand barrels per day, but the ultimate goal is to convert it to term contracts, while subsequent expansion phases will require firm customer commitments.
  • −Results remain exposed to oil volatility, price differentials, and geopolitical disruptions; the company hedged only approximately 70% of its pipeline loss allowance revenue for the remainder of 2026 at an average WTI price of approximately $62, and management also confirmed that it does not include additional market opportunities in its forecasts until they are realized.
  • −Insider activity recorded one sale and no purchases during the three months ended June 29, 2026, resulting in net activity of negative 51,494.7 units. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data does not provide evidence that it reflects operational deterioration.

Plains expects growth of between 100 thousand and 200 thousand barrels per day in 2026 compared with 2025 on an exit-to-exit basis, up from a previous forecast of nearly flat production. Management attributed the increase primarily to gas takeaway capacity coming online earlier than expected and also noted that observed volumes from July to August 2026 were trending positively toward this range. Nevertheless, the company maintained 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance at $2.88 billion, plus or minus $75 million. Management believes the greater impact of volume growth will provide momentum to the business in 2027 rather than justify an increase to 2026 guidance.

What did Plains achieve from the sale of the Canadian natural gas liquids business?

Plains closed the sale of the Canadian natural gas liquids business in mid-May 2026. The transaction contributed to reducing debt by approximately $2.9 billion and bringing pro forma leverage at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 to 3.3 times. The natural gas liquids segment recorded adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $40 million in that quarter, a contribution reflecting the mid-May closing date. The company is considering beginning to report adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization within a single segment in fiscal Q3 2026.

How does PAA plan to use cash flow and capital in 2026?

Plains expects to generate approximately $1.75 billion in free cash flow in 2026. It increased growth capital spending from $350 million to a range of $400–450 million to fund expansions in the Permian, Canada, and Cactus III, while reducing maintenance capital to $175 million. Its capital allocation priorities are to increase targeted distributions by $0.15 per unit annually, pursue additional acquisitions and accretive organic projects, and maintain a strong balance sheet. Spending on some projects that take between 18 and 24 months may extend into 2027 and potentially 2028.

What are the main risks to monitor in the analysis of PAA?

The impact of the company's increasing concentration in crude oil following the sale of the Canadian natural gas liquids business in May 2026 should be monitored because results have become more closely tied to crude oil volumes and price differentials. In addition, 2026 earnings guidance remained unchanged despite the increase in the Permian production forecast, while growth spending rose to $400–450 million. The new Cactus III capacity needs to transition gradually from use by the marketing affiliate to term contracts, while any subsequent expansions require firm customer commitments. Market volatility remains influential because only approximately 70% of pipeline loss allowance revenue for the remainder of 2026 was hedged at an average WTI price of approximately $62.