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Home
Stocks
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketTurnaroundF 4/9Grey zoneBetter than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
84
9.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
59
18.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
49
7.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
74
0.7x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
66
1.63%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
83
29.2%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
91
13▲3Top tier
OXY

OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
61.46
▲ ⁦+0.49%⁩ (+0.30)
Market Cap$60.8B
Beta0.16
52w Low52w High
38.8067.45
Last Week
⁦+0.90%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.06%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+7.64%⁩
Last Year
⁦+36.15%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$61
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$70
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$63–$79⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$116
⁦+88%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$70–$116⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$70.00
⁦+13.9%⁩
Current Price $61.46·Median $70.00
Low
$63.00
High
$79.00
Current price
$61.46
Average target
$70.00
Street summary

Limited Improvement in OXY Targets Amid Continued Divergence

Bullish tilt

Occidental Petroleum’s consensus price target rose to 70 from 66.23 over the last 30 days, an increase of 5.69%, while the number of analysts remained at five. Over the last seven days, the consensus edged up from 69.55 to 70, indicating limited recent improvement rather than a broad revaluation. The target range is between 63 and 79, reflecting a clear divergence in expectations compared with the current price of 61.46.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+5.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.46
Hold
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
38%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
26%
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
2
7
15
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.22 → 3.46
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Evercore ISI Group
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Seaport Global
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.51x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.05x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.05x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.6%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.5%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    280.1%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    22.3%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    7.0%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.67x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.6%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    13.8%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.02
    -1.814.34
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Occidental Petroleum Corporation operates through an integrated portfolio that includes oil and gas production in the United States and international markets, alongside marketing and transportation, OxyChem, and Low Carbon Ventures projects. Its production in Q2 FY2026 was approximately 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with domestic performance relying on the Permian Basin and the Gulf of America, while the marketing and transportation business benefits from gas price differentials and crude marketing margins. The company holds resources estimated at approximately 16.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 88% of which are within the United States, and says this base provides a low-cost development runway extending beyond 30 years.

In Q2 FY2026, Occidental reported revenue of $8.1 billion, net income of $3.0 billion, and reported diluted earnings per share of $2.75, compared with adjusted earnings of $2.40 per share. Net income equates mathematically to approximately 37% of revenue, while the company generated nearly $3 billion of free cash flow before working capital changes, its highest quarterly level since Q3 FY2022. FY2025 data show revenue of $21.6 billion and net income of $2.3 billion, highlighting the strength of the latest quarter's result compared with the previous annual base.

The Q2 FY2026 performance mix was broad but uneven across segments: production exceeded the upper end of guidance, and the marketing and transportation segment recorded adjusted pre-tax income of approximately $960 million, more than double the midpoint of prior guidance, supported by improved gas marketing, crude margins, and sulfur prices at Al Hosn. Strength in the Permian and OxyChem also supported results, while Middle East disruptions reduced international volumes. The company ended the quarter with approximately $4.2 billion of unrestricted cash after reducing principal debt to $11.8 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Occidental raised its FY2026 production guidance after Q2 FY2026 production reached approximately 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the guidance midpoint by 23 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day; it expects Q3 FY2026 production of between 1.40 and 1.44 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
  • The plan targets more than $4 billion of sustainable annual cash flow by 2030 compared with FY2025, with approximately 85% of the improvement expected to be achieved even in a lower-price environment. Management says more than $1.2 billion of cash flow improvement is expected in FY2026, followed by approximately $700 to $800 million of additional improvement in FY2027.
  • The company reduced principal debt by $1.5 billion since the previous call to $11.8 billion, lowering its future annualized interest rate to approximately $760 million, nearly $630 million below FY2025 payments. Management is targeting principal debt of $10 billion, with maturities of no more than $414 million through the end of 2029.
  • Operational efficiency continues to support production and cash flows; domestic lease operating expenses were $7.80 per barrel of oil equivalent in Q2 FY2026, 6% better than guidance. In the Permian, the company plans to reduce the rig count by three rigs in Q4 FY2026 while bringing 15 additional wells into production, reflecting a strategy of delivering more production with fewer resources.
  • The plan to reduce sustainable capital by $900 million through 2030 relies on lowering the base decline rate from approximately 25% to 20% and improving well costs by a targeted 12%. Enhanced recovery trials in unconventional Permian reservoirs showed an increase of more than 45% in estimated ultimate recovery, with three commercial projects scheduled to begin showing effects in 2028 and 2029.
  • In August 2026, the board approved an 8% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.28 per share, supported by deleveraging and structural cost improvements. At the same time, the company maintained FY2026 capital expenditure guidance of between $5.5 and $5.9 billion and set $5.9 billion as the expected starting point for FY2027.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +The Q2 FY2026 result combines net income of $3.0 billion with free cash flow of nearly $3 billion, while production exceeded guidance and the marketing and transportation segment recorded a quarterly record of approximately $960 million in adjusted pre-tax income.
  • +The balance sheet has improved meaningfully; principal debt declined to $11.8 billion and net principal debt to $7.6 billion, with $4.2 billion in cash and only $414 million of maturities through the end of 2029, giving the company greater flexibility in the face of energy price volatility.
  • +The plan to add more than $4 billion of annual cash flow by 2030 is based on cost savings, lower interest expense, and lower sustainable capital, rather than solely on production growth or higher oil prices; management expects approximately 85% of the improvement could be achieved in low-price scenarios.
  • +The company's resources of 16.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, alongside enhanced recovery results that increased estimated ultimate recovery by more than 45% in Permian trials, provide a foundation for reducing decline rates and extending asset life without relying on new acquisitions.
  • +The 8% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.28 per share supports the capital return thesis, with management affirming that a sustainable and growing dividend is a foundational priority within its cash flow allocation policy.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $69.2, within a range of $63 to $79, with the consensus rated Buy; the average is slightly above the 52-week range high of $67.45, while the highest target is clearly above that high. No price-to-earnings ratio is provided in the data, so the stock's valuation here is based on the breadth of the target range compared with the 52-week range of $38.8 to $67.45, and on the company's ability to convert its $4 billion cash flow plan by 2030 into actual results despite commodity price and execution risks.

BuyAnalyst target: $69.2(+12.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove OXY's results in Q2 FY2026?

Occidental reported revenue of $8.1 billion, net income of $3.0 billion, and reported earnings per share of $2.75 in Q2 FY2026. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.40, while free cash flow before working capital changes reached approximately $3 billion, the highest since Q3 FY2022. Results were supported by production of 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, record marketing and transportation income of approximately $960 million, and the performance of the Permian and OxyChem.

How does Occidental plan to add $4 billion to cash flow by 2030?

The company is targeting more than $4 billion of sustainable annual improvement compared with FY2025 and expects to achieve approximately half of it by the end of FY2027. The plan includes reducing sustainable capital by $900 million, lowering the base production decline rate from approximately 25% to 20%, and reducing well costs by a targeted 12%. It also includes reducing interest expense by approximately $740 million compared with FY2025 and the conclusion of nearly $400 million in Low Carbon Ventures spending as Stratos transitions to operations.

Has Occidental succeeded in reducing its debt?

Principal debt was $11.8 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026 after being reduced by $1.5 billion since the previous call, its lowest level since Q2 FY2019. Net principal debt was $7.6 billion after accounting for $4.2 billion of unrestricted cash. The company is targeting principal debt of $10 billion, while maturities through the end of 2029 do not exceed $414 million, and the future annualized interest rate declines to approximately $760 million.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Occidental's earnings and cash flows remain highly sensitive to oil and gas prices; management attributed the strength of Q2 FY2026 results partly to higher commodity prices and explained that opportunities to generate additional value above the base plan improve when prices rise, meaning that lower prices could pressure results despite structural savings.
  • −Middle East disruptions already reduced international volumes in Q2 FY2026, and the company expects FY2026 international volumes to be marginally below the previous estimate. It also warned that shipping cost volatility could pressure sulfur selling prices at Al Hosn or delay and disrupt sales.
  • −Management expects marketing and transportation income to decline in Q3 FY2026 as the gas price differential between Waha and the Gulf Coast narrows. The segment's adjusted pre-tax income was approximately $960 million in the previous quarter, but the addition of nearly 3 billion cubic feet per day of transportation capacity and the potential addition of another 2 billion cubic feet by the end of Q4 FY2026 reduce the likelihood of a recurrence of the price dislocations that supported the record performance.
  • −Domestic lease operating expenses are expected to rise to $8.75 per barrel of oil equivalent in Q3 FY2026, from $7.80 in the previous quarter, due to the scheduling of maintenance work and weather contingencies in the Gulf of America. The company also noted increasing pressure on carbon dioxide costs linked to higher oil prices, despite maintaining FY2026 guidance at $8.10 per barrel of oil equivalent.
  • −Executing the 2030 plan requires interim spending and financing before all savings materialize; the FY2027 plan starts from expected capital expenditure of $5.9 billion, while estimated sustainable capital for that year ranges from $5.0 to $5.1 billion before declining to $4.5 billion by 2030. The Stratos project also underwent repairs and commissioning work on trains 3 and 4, with full plant startup targeted near the end of 2026 and transition to operations in 2027.
  • −Share repurchases will remain a lower priority than debt reduction and accumulating cash to redeem preferred shares in August 2029; therefore, management does not expect a sustained, substantial repurchase program before that redemption. This sequencing may limit support for the stock through repurchases even as cash flow improves.
How important are the Permian and enhanced recovery technologies to the OXY thesis?

Strong performance from new wells and the production base in the Permian contributed to production exceeding guidance in Q2 FY2026. Carbon dioxide injection trials in the Midland and Delaware reservoirs showed an increase of more than 45% in estimated ultimate recovery, which could raise average recovery from an unconventional well from approximately 10% to nearly 15%, with an ambition to reach 20% through repeated injection cycles. The company also plans to reduce three rigs in Q4 FY2026 while bringing 15 additional wells into production, demonstrating the impact of drilling and development efficiency.

What are the main operational risks facing OXY during the second half of FY2026?

The company expects marketing and transportation income to decline in Q3 FY2026 as the gas price differential between Waha and the Gulf Coast narrows following the addition of transportation capacity. Expected domestic lease operating expenses will also rise to $8.75 per barrel of oil equivalent due to maintenance and weather contingencies in the Gulf of America. Internationally, Middle East disruptions reduced volumes in Q2 FY2026, and shipping volatility could affect sulfur selling prices or the timing of Al Hosn sales.

What do the dividend and repurchase policies mean for OXY shareholders?

The board increased the quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.28 per share in August 2026, supported by debt reduction and improvements in costs and cash flows. Management describes a sustainable and growing dividend as a foundational priority but ties any further growth to the balance sheet's and cash flow's ability to support it throughout the energy price cycle. Share repurchases will remain opportunistic and a lower priority than debt reduction and accumulating cash for the preferred share redemption scheduled for August 2029.