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Otter Tail Corporation
OTTR

OTTR Otter Tail Corporation

Otter Tail Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
88.06
▲ ⁦+0.15%⁩ (+0.13)
Market Cap$3.7B
Beta0.43
52w Low52w High
74.1595.00
Last Week
⁦-0.92%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.11%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+5.31%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.65%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall37
Weak — below market medianMomentum TrapF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 37% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
46
18.9x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
17
-0.2%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
39
7.3%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
51
2.6x2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
49
2.50%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
67
9.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
37
33Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$88
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$81
⁦-8%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$81–$81⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$81.00
⁦-8.0%⁩
Current Price $88.06·Median $81.00
Low
$81.00
High
$81.00
Street summary

Otter Tail (OTTR) Stock Forecast Analysis

Bearish tilt

Otter Tail stock shows a state of stagnation in analyst estimates, with the target price stabilizing at 81 dollars without any change over the periods (past 1, 7, 30 days). Notably, there is a negative gap between the current market price (86.77) and the target price, indicating that the stock is trading at a premium exceeding current analyst estimates by approximately 7%.

As of 2026-06-05
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
0%
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.25 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-29
    UBS
    Reduce
  • = Reiterate2024-11-06
    Williams Trading
    —· $81.00
  • ⬆ Upgrade2022-11-28
    Siebert Williams Shank & Co
    Hold
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.94x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.31x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.49x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -2.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.2%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -31.7%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    29.1%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    7.3%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.62x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.5%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    47.5%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.89
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Otter Tail Corporation operates through three interconnected engines: the Otter Tail Power electric utility, the manufacturing platform, and the PVC pipe plastics segment. The electric utility generates regulated earnings supported by investment in the rate base and rate decisions, while manufacturing benefits from value-added manufacturing services and diversified end markets, and the plastics segment provides additional earnings and cash flows for reinvestment in the company’s utility-first model.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $334.7 million, and the company recorded an EDGAR net loss of $7.6 million and earnings per share of negative $0.18. On an adjusted basis excluding the after-tax $1.84-per-share impact of the PVC pipe litigation settlement, the company generated diluted earnings per share of $1.66, down 10% from $1.85 in the comparable period; the data do not include a consolidated gross margin for this quarter.

The earnings mix in Q2 fiscal 2026 was mixed: Electric segment earnings declined slightly, manufacturing earnings increased by $0.03 per share, or 38%, due to product mix and volumes, while adjusted plastics earnings declined by $0.14 per share, or 11%, as the average PVC pipe price fell 14% despite a 15% increase in volumes. In manufacturing, the net income margin was about 5% during the first six months of fiscal 2026, with an opportunity to improve it through higher volumes and fixed-cost leverage.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Otter Tail raised its adjusted diluted earnings-per-share guidance range for fiscal 2026 to $5.68–$6.08, compared with the original range of $5.22–$5.62, after manufacturing and plastics outperformed expectations in Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • The company reaffirmed a 10% five-year compound annual growth rate for Otter Tail Power’s rate base, supported by a $1.9 billion investment plan, and expects utility earnings to grow at a similar pace over the planning period without requiring external equity issuance.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The total first-stage large-load opportunity pipeline increased to 1,400 megawatts after an increase of approximately 350 megawatts, with data centers accounting for about 35% and the remainder associated with clean fuels and thermal storage; these opportunities are incremental to the base growth plan and are not required to achieve it.
  • Regulated infrastructure projects advanced during Q2 fiscal 2026 as two 345-kilovolt MISO Tranche 1 transmission lines, totaling approximately 200 miles, received route permits; the company also targets placing Solway Solar in service in the first half of 2027 and Abercrombie Solar and the battery storage project in 2028.
  • In plastics, sales volumes increased 15% year over year, and the company recorded the highest quantity of pipe sold in any quarter, benefiting from expanded capacity in Phoenix; in manufacturing, higher volumes in construction, recreational vehicles, horticulture, and industrial markets supported a 38% increase in segment earnings.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Otter Tail Power’s $1.9 billion investment plan and 10% rate-base growth trajectory provide a long-term regulated engine, while available liquidity exceeding $600 million and a 60% equity layer allow the plan to be funded without external equity issuance, according to management’s expectations.
    • +The increase in adjusted earnings-per-share guidance for fiscal 2026 to $5.68–$6.08 supports an improving operating outlook, as the company raised its expectations for both manufacturing and plastics while maintaining its Electric segment outlook, which assumes a 14% increase in earnings from the prior year.
    • +The manufacturing platform gives the company additional growth leverage, as segment earnings increased 38% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and the expanded Georgia facility still has available capacity to accommodate additional growth from existing customers.
    • +The 1,400-megawatt large-load opportunity pipeline could add growth above the current plan, with diversification across data centers, clean fuels, and thermal storage, and proposed tariffs that include long-term contracts and financial guarantees to limit stranded-asset risk.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The normalization of plastics earnings represents the largest visible structural pressure in the data; the average PVC pipe price declined 14% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management expects segment earnings to continue declining through the end of 2027 before reaching a range of $45–$50 million in 2028, while acknowledging that the timing and level could differ materially from the estimate.
    • −The strength of plastics volumes in Q2 fiscal 2026 may have pulled demand forward from later periods, as management believes customers placed orders ahead of announced increases in PVC resin prices; therefore, it expects weaker volumes in the second half of fiscal 2026 and an average full-year price approximately 15% below the prior year.
    • −The company recorded a net loss of $7.6 million and earnings per share of negative $0.18 in Q2 fiscal 2026 following the impact of the PVC pipe antitrust litigation settlement; it agreed to pay $103.5 million, which it had deposited in full into an escrow account by the end of July 2026, while the settlements remain subject to final judicial approval expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
    • −The manufacturing business faces continued weakness in the agriculture market due to higher costs, relatively low agricultural commodity prices, and trade disruption, limiting the breadth of the recovery evident in the construction, recreational vehicle, horticulture, and industrial markets.
    • −Operating and maintenance costs in the Electric segment increased during Q2 fiscal 2026 due to a planned outage at a coal facility, the timing of vegetation-management work, and higher labor costs. Corporate costs also increased by $0.07 per share, and management expects them to exceed its original assumptions due to lower investment income and a reduced tax benefit.
    • −Insiders recorded three sales and no purchases during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 11, 2026, for a net value of negative $394,044.25; this is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged and do not by themselves establish a deterioration in fundamentals.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus rates OTTR stock as “Neutral,” with an average target of $81, and the highest and lowest estimates both equal $81, indicating no visible range of disagreement among the available targets. This target lies within the 52-week range of $74.15–$95.09 and below its peak, while the data do not include a valid price-to-earnings multiple; therefore, the raised fiscal 2026 guidance and rate-base growth should be weighed against the normalization of plastics earnings and the large legal settlement.

    HoldAnalyst target: $81(-8.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did Otter Tail record a loss in Q2 fiscal 2026 despite reporting strong adjusted earnings?

    The EDGAR net loss was approximately $7.6 million, equivalent to negative $0.18 per share, on revenue of $334.7 million in Q2 fiscal 2026. In contrast, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.66 after excluding the after-tax $1.84-per-share impact of the PVC pipe litigation settlement. The company deposited the full $103.5 million settlement amount into an escrow account by the end of July 2026, and the settlement does not admit any wrongdoing or liability.

    What prompted Otter Tail to raise its fiscal 2026 outlook?

    The company raised its adjusted diluted earnings-per-share range for fiscal 2026 from $5.22–$5.62 to $5.68–$6.08. It maintained its Electric outlook, which assumes a 14% increase in segment earnings, and raised its manufacturing outlook due to improved demand, pricing, and fixed-cost leverage. It also raised its plastics outlook following Q2 fiscal 2026 results that exceeded its estimates and a slowdown in the rate of decline in PVC pipe prices.

    Why is Otter Tail Power’s investment plan important for OTTR stock?

    The customer-focused investment plan totals $1.9 billion, and the company targets a 10% compound annual growth rate in the utility rate base over five years. Projects include Solway Solar, targeted to enter service in the first half of 2027; Abercrombie Solar and the battery storage facility, targeted for 2028; and two 345-kilovolt MISO Tranche 1 lines totaling approximately 200 miles. Management says available liquidity exceeding $600 million and a 60% equity layer allow the plan to be funded without external equity issuance.

    Will the plastics segment remain an earnings driver for Otter Tail?

    The segment generated 15% higher sales volumes in Q2 fiscal 2026, but the average PVC pipe price declined 14% and adjusted segment earnings fell 11%. Management expects the average price in fiscal 2026 to be approximately 15% below the prior year, with weaker volumes in the second half after customers pulled orders forward into the second quarter. Over the longer term, it expects plastics earnings to continue declining through the end of 2027 before reaching $45–$50 million in 2028, with the actual outcome potentially differing materially from this estimate.

    What is Otter Tail Power’s large-load opportunity?

    The first-stage large-load opportunity pipeline reached 1,400 megawatts after increasing by approximately 350 megawatts during Q2 fiscal 2026. About 35% of the opportunities are associated with a data center, while the remainder is divided between clean fuels and thermal storage. The company filed large-load tariffs with regulators in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota that include long contract periods, financial guarantees, and direct allocation of new-load costs to the new customer.

    How do analysts view OTTR stock’s valuation?

    The analyst consensus is “Neutral,” and the average price target is $81. The highest and lowest available targets both equal $81, so there is no visible dispersion among the analyst estimates provided. The target lies within the 52-week range of $74.15–$95.09, while the data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings multiple that can be used for comparison.