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Oscar Health, Inc.
OSCR

OSCR Oscar Health, Inc.

Oscar Health, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
32.77
▲ ⁦+0.58%⁩ (+0.19)
Market Cap$8.4B
Beta2.38
52w Low52w High
10.6934.23
Last Week
⁦+8.04%⁩
Last Month
⁦+17.46%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+47.41%⁩
Last Year
⁦+92.54%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 3/8Better than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
68
21.1x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
98
42.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
95
28.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
76
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
34
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
97
55.4%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
35
6▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$33
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$29
⁦-13%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$16–$39⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$271
⁦+728%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$29–$271⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$27.25
⁦-16.8%⁩
Current Price $32.77·Median $28.50
Low
$16.00
High
$39.00
Current price
$32.77
Average target
$27.25
Street summary

Oscar Health (OSCR) Price Target Revision Analysis

Oscar Health stock has seen an upward revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising from $24.2 to $27.25, an increase of 12.6%. However, the stock is currently trading at $32.3, a level that exceeds both the average forecast and the median price ($28.5), indicating that the market price has surpassed current analyst estimates despite stable forecasts over the last seven days.

As of 2026-08-19
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.36
Hold
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
27%
Target dispersion
70%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
3
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.09 → 3.36
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Wells Fargo
    Mixed
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
    Goldman Sachs
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-06
    Barclays
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.14x
    3.94x44.30x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    31.19x
    4.64x37.16x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.19x
    3.77x30.13x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    39.7%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    42.8%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    324.6%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    44.9%
    12.8%90.7%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    28.7%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Oscar Health operates in the individual health insurance market, focusing on ACA coverage aimed at individuals outside employer-sponsored plans, including self-employed workers, part-time workers, and early retirees. Its growth depends on increasing membership and pricing insurance premiums by market, while risk adjustment payments and medical care costs directly affect profitability. The company is expanding its model through ICHRA, where the ICHRAx platform enables employers to shift from defined benefits to defined contributions, with conversion revenue that management said is not subject to regulatory constraints like insurance revenue, does not require reserves, and carries higher margins.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue rose 70% year over year to $4.9 billion, driven by membership growth and price increases, partially offset by higher risk adjustment payment accruals. The company ended the quarter with 2.96 million active members, up 46%, while the medical loss ratio improved by approximately 12 points to 79.2% and the selling, general, and administrative expense ratio declined 450 basis points to a record 14.2%.

Income from operations reached $389 million at an operating margin of 8%, representing year-over-year improvements of $619 million and 16 percentage points, respectively, while net income reached $362 million. During the first half of fiscal year 2026, the company recorded approximately $1 billion in net income and diluted earnings of $3.16 per share. The membership mix included members shifting from Silver plans to higher-deductible Bronze plans and to Gold plans, and management said these categories performed in line with or better than its adjusted expectations.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Oscar Health raised its fiscal year 2026 income from operations guidance range by $250 million to $500–700 million, while maintaining its revenue outlook at $18.7–19.0 billion and improving its medical loss ratio range to 81.5%–82.5%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Active membership increased 46% year over year to 2.96 million members in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, supported by open enrollment growth above the market and strong member retention, despite a 12% contraction in total ACA market membership to 19.2 million members.
  • Technology investment delivered measurable operating results; the claims platform processes most claims in less than 48 hours with first-pass accuracy of 98.7%, while technology and AI efficiencies helped bring the selling, general, and administrative expense ratio to 14.2%.
  • The radiology pilot program through Oswell Agent showed that one in four members chooses the care location recommended by the platform, generating average savings of $75 per appointment, and management expects pharmacy and utilization analytics tools to deliver tens of millions of dollars in annual savings.
  • ICHRAx opens an additional path for growth; the platform includes competing insurers and connects plan selection with broker tools, and management said the solution could reduce employer costs by up to 26%. It also pointed to a potential market of 115 million people at small and middle-market companies who could be affected by shifts in working patterns.
  • Oscar Health ended the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 with approximately $10.2 billion in cash and investments, including $462 million at the parent company, while capital and surplus at its insurance subsidiaries totaled $1.9 billion, including $994 million in excess capital.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The second quarter of fiscal year 2026 reflects a strong turnaround in profitability, with net income of $362 million and income from operations of $389 million, representing year-over-year improvements of $590 million and $619 million, respectively.
    • +Revenue growth of 70% and membership growth of 46% support the market share gain thesis, particularly as management attributed the results to open enrollment growth above the market and strong member retention.
    • +The improvement in the medical loss ratio to 79.2% and the decline in the selling, general, and administrative expense ratio to 14.2% provide numerical evidence of the impact of disciplined pricing, operating leverage, and the efficiency of the technology platform.
    • +ICHRAx and Lucie could expand growth sources beyond traditional individual ACA policies, with an opportunity to generate higher-margin conversion revenue and offer products from Allstate Health, Aflac, and others to platform members.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Growth remains exposed to the health of the individual ACA market; total market membership declined 12% year over year to 19.2 million members, and management expects further contraction, although the trajectory through the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 was better than pricing assumptions.
    • −Management expects the medical loss ratio to rise sequentially during the second half of fiscal year 2026 as members exhaust their deductibles, while outpatient utilization was elevated during the first six months despite inpatient, professional care, and pharmacy utilization being in line with expectations.
    • −Results for the first half of fiscal year 2026 benefited from $232 million of favorable prior-period development, including $164 million in the second quarter, with the final 2025 risk adjustment report accounting for approximately $160 million of the quarterly amount; therefore, not all of the improvement represents a recurring source of earnings.
    • −CMS eligibility verification measures increase the risk of member attrition in the second half of fiscal year 2026; management revised its attrition forecast from 1%–2% per month to a rate closer to twice that level, while confirming that the expected impact is included in revenue guidance.
    • −Risk adjustment represents a structural burden because Oscar Health members tend to be younger, healthier, and more concentrated in urban areas than the market, making the company typically a net payer within the system; risk adjustment amounted to approximately 20% of direct premiums in the first half of fiscal year 2026.
    • −Insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026, showed net sales of $104.9 million across 33 sales and no purchases; this is a weak trading signal on its own because such sales may be prearranged unless the data indicates otherwise.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus is neutral, with an average price target of $27.25 and a wide range between $16 and $39. The average is approximately 19% below the 52-week range high of $33.548, while the highest target exceeds that high. A meaningful traditional price-to-earnings multiple is unavailable because of a trailing twelve-month net loss of $39.4 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $0.12, despite the strong profitability recorded in the first half of fiscal year 2026; therefore, the dispersion in analyst targets reflects uncertainty about the sustainability of the improvement after the impact of reserve development and risk adjustment.

    HoldAnalyst target: $27.25(-16.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were OSCR's key results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

    Oscar Health's revenue reached approximately $4.9 billion, up 70% year over year. Net income reached $362 million, while income from operations was $389 million and the operating margin was 8%. The medical loss ratio also improved to 79.2%, and the selling, general, and administrative expense ratio declined to 14.2%. The company ended the quarter with 2.96 million active members, up 46%.

    What is Oscar Health's guidance for fiscal year 2026?

    The company expects revenue of between $18.7 billion and $19.0 billion in fiscal year 2026. It raised its income from operations guidance by $250 million to a range of $500–700 million. It also lowered its expected medical loss ratio range to 81.5%–82.5% and its selling, general, and administrative expense ratio range to 15.6%–16.1%. It expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed income from operations by approximately $115 million.

    How does Oscar Health use AI to reduce costs?

    The claims platform processes most claims in less than 48 hours with first-pass accuracy of 98.7%. Oswell Agent uses claims history and clinical interactions to recommend care providers based on cost, location, and availability, and one in four members selected the recommended radiology location and saved an average of $75 per appointment. The company's models also analyze pharmacy activity and utilization, provider, broker, and member data to detect anomalies. Management expects these tools to generate tens of millions of dollars in annual savings.

    Why is ICHRAx important to OSCR's growth?

    Oscar Health built the ICHRAx platform from a CMS-certified electronic data exchange it acquired in fiscal year 2025. The platform allows an employee to choose a plan from Oscar Health or participating competing insurers, easing employers' concerns about the breadth of provider networks. Management said the benefit selection tools could reduce employer costs by up to 26%. The company sees an opportunity involving approximately 115 million people at small and middle-market companies, in addition to conversion revenue that it described as higher-margin than regulated insurance revenue.

    What are the main operating risks facing Oscar Health in the second half of fiscal year 2026?

    Management expects the medical loss ratio to rise sequentially as members exhaust their deductibles, and outpatient utilization was elevated during the first half. It also expects membership attrition to be closer to twice its previous estimate of 1%–2% per month due to CMS eligibility verification measures. Results for the first six months benefited from $232 million of favorable prior-period development, support that should not be assumed to recur at the same level. Nevertheless, management confirmed on the August 6, 2026 call that the expected effects of eligibility verification are included in fiscal year 2026 guidance.

    What do analyst views and insider trading look like for OSCR stock?

    Analyst consensus is neutral, with an average price target of $27.25, a high target of $39, and a low target of $16. This $23 spread indicates substantial divergence in estimates of the sustainability of profitability and growth. During the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026, insider net sales totaled $104.9 million across 33 sales and no purchases. These sales alone are insufficient to support a bearish thesis because they may be prearranged unless the data proves otherwise.