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Stocks
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall46
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 6/9Better than 46% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
33
26.9x▼17.2xBottom tier
▸
Growth
62
8.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
78
38.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
56
2.2x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
43
0.00%▼0.19%Around median
▸
Momentum
34
-18.4%▼0.5%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
47
17▲3Around median
ORLY

ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
84.90
▼ ⁦-0.15%⁩ (-0.13)
Market Cap$70.4B
Beta0.52
52w Low52w High
82.59105.39
Last Week
⁦-1.42%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.38%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+0.78%⁩
Last Year
⁦-19.66%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$85⁩
  • Analyst targets
    5 analysts
    ⁦$108⁩
    ⁦+27%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$94⁩–⁦$115⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+21%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Next year's earnings × ⁦18.1⁩, median of 44 companies
    ⁦$64⁩
    ⁦−25%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$40⁩–⁦$82⁩⁩
  • Discounted cash flow model
    ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate · follows analysts' earnings estimates, then ⁦8%⁩ growth
    ⁦$61⁩
    ⁦−28%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$46⁩–⁦$84⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦−45%⁩

The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today

  • Value with no growth
    Today's after-tax operating profit, held flat forever, at a ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate
    ⁦$27⁩
    ⁦−68%⁩

⁦68%⁩ of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.

1
methods value it above the price
0
methods near the price
2
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.29%⁩ as of ⁦2026-09-30⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$106.09
⁦+25.0%⁩
Current Price $84.90·Median $108.00
Low
$94.00
High
$115.00
Current price
$84.90
Average target
$106.09
Street summary

Slight Decline Amid Diverging Analyst Outlook

The average price target remained stable at 106.09 with no change over the last day, but declined from 107.30 to 106.09 over the last 7 and 30 days, a decrease of 1.21 or 1.13%, while the number of analysts remained at 5. Current targets range between 94 and 115, reflecting a notable divergence in valuations, although the average and median of 108 remain above the current price of 85.03.

As of 2026-10-01
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.97
Buy
Analyst coverage
29
Buy conviction
79%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
25%
Analyst ratings over time29 analysts rating
5
18
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.93 → 3.97
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-29
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Citigroup
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    26.87x
    4.38x35.02x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    24.12x
    3.57x28.53x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.11x
    2.74x21.95x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    3.9%
    -27.3%18.0%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.5%
    -14.2%31.0%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    154.6%
    -157.0%134.9%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    51.6%
    11.5%66.2%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    38.9%
    -23.7%21.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.24x
    0.65x5.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.0%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-08-27Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

O'Reilly Automotive operates an automotive parts retail network in North America serving professional customers and vehicle owners who perform maintenance themselves. The network comprised approximately 6,700 stores and more than 95,000 employees in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and its revenue model is based on selling parts through stores while providing inventory availability, delivery services, and technical tools; the professional customer business was the largest contributor to comparable sales growth, while the DIY business remained an additional source of growth.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, sales increased 7.9% according to the July 30, 2026 report, and comparable sales rose 6%, including growth of approximately 10% among professional customers and low-single-digit growth in DIY. Gross margin remained unchanged year over year at 51.4%, and diluted earnings per share increased 10%, while $367 million of sales growth came from stores, including $100 million from stores opened in 2025 and 2026 that had not yet entered the comparable-store base.

EDGAR data for Q1 of fiscal year 2026 showed revenue of $4.6 billion, gross profit of $2.3 billion, net income of $604.2 million, and earnings per share of $0.72. On a trailing-twelve-month basis through 2026, revenue reached $18.2 billion, gross profit $9.4 billion, and net income $2.6 billion, compared with revenue of $17.8 billion and net income of $2.5 billion in fiscal year 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company raised its comparable sales growth guidance range for fiscal year 2026 from 3%–5% to 4%–6%, also raised its diluted earnings per share forecast to $3.20–$3.30, and projected annual revenue between $18.9 billion and $19.2 billion.
  • The professional customer business achieved comparable sales growth of approximately 10% during Q2 of fiscal year 2026, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with mid-single-digit ticket-count growth and its continued position as the largest contributor to the company's growth.
  • O'Reilly targets 225–235 net new store openings in fiscal year 2026 after opening 110 stores during the first half across 31 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada, and has allocated expected capital expenditures of between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion for this purpose and for developing its distribution network and technology.
  • Free cash flow reached $1.5 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2026, compared with $904 million in the corresponding period, and the company maintained its annual forecast of between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion. This supported the repurchase of 34 million shares for $3.1 billion from the beginning of fiscal year 2026 through the earnings announcement on July 29, 2026, including 17 million shares at an average of $90.40 during Q2.
  • The company maintained gross margin guidance of 51.5%–52% and operating margin guidance of 19.3%–19.8% for fiscal year 2026; the first-half gross margin reached 51.5%, up 11 basis points, while the operating margin expanded 21 basis points and operating profit dollars increased 10%.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Comparable sales growth of 6% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with performance in every month of the quarter exceeding management's expectations, supports the view that O'Reilly continues to gain market share, particularly in the professional customer business, which grew approximately 10%.
  • +The company combines clear organic expansion with high profitability; it targets 225–235 net new stores in fiscal year 2026, with a gross margin range of 51.5%–52% and an operating margin range of 19.3%–19.8%.
  • +Free cash flow in the first half of fiscal year 2026 increased to $1.5 billion from $904 million, providing funding for investment in stores, inventory, and distribution, followed by capital returns through share repurchases.
  • +The increase in comparable sales guidance to 4%–6% and earnings per share guidance to $3.20–$3.30 reflects the incorporation of first-half fiscal year 2026 outperformance into higher full-year expectations, while second-half expectations remain unchanged.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates ORLY shares as “Buy,” with an average price target of $107.30 and a relatively wide range of $98 to $115. The average is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $82.59–$108.72, while the highest target exceeds that level; these targets balance the raised fiscal year 2026 guidance against the risks of slowing inflation benefits, pressure on DIY transactions, and operating costs. The available data do not provide a valid comparable earnings multiple, so the stock's valuation here is based on the target range and the 52-week range instead of inferring an unstated multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $107.3(+26.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ORLY's results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Sales increased 7.9% and comparable sales rose 6% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, exceeding management's expectations in every month of the quarter. The professional customer business grew approximately 10%, with mid-single-digit ticket-count growth, while the DIY business achieved low-single-digit growth driven primarily by a higher average ticket value. Gross margin remained at 51.4%, and diluted earnings per share increased 10%.

What is O'Reilly's guidance for fiscal year 2026?

The company expects revenue of between $18.9 billion and $19.2 billion in fiscal year 2026. It raised its comparable sales growth range to 4%–6% from 3%–5% and increased its diluted earnings per share forecast to $3.20–$3.30. It maintained gross margin guidance of 51.5%–52%, operating margin guidance of 19.3%–19.8%, and free cash flow guidance of $1.8 billion–$2.1 billion.

How important is the professional customer business to O'Reilly's growth?

The professional customer business was the largest contributor to comparable sales growth during Q2 of fiscal year 2026. It achieved growth of approximately 10%, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with mid-single-digit ticket-count growth. However, the faster growth of this business also pressures the gross margin mix compared with some DIY sales.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Pricing support is expected to slow significantly in the second half of fiscal year 2026; management expects same-SKU price inflation to decline from 5.5% in Q2 to 1%–2%, approaching the lower end of the range in Q4, increasing growth's dependence on transaction volumes and market-share gains.
  • −DIY transaction counts declined by low single digits during Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and came in below management's expectations, partly due to weakness in hot-weather categories. Management also warned of volatility in consumer demand under pressure from fuel and oil prices and economic conditions, despite improvement in seasonal categories during the first weeks of July 2026.
  • −The margin mix faced pressure from faster growth in professional customer sales and from the product mix; therefore, the Q2 fiscal year 2026 margin was approximately 51.4%, slightly below the annual guidance range of 51.5%–52%, although consistent with management's seasonal expectations.
  • −SG&A expenses per store increased 4.8% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with pressure from fuel, self-insurance, and legal items, while SG&A leverage as a percentage of sales deteriorated by 9 basis points. The outlook assumes that growth in these expenses will slow in the second half to reach 3.5%–4% annually, making the achievement of operating leverage dependent on those pressures easing.
  • −Energy, transportation, tariff, and supply-chain costs remain sources of volatility; the company cited pressures from higher crude oil and fuel prices and a volatile tariff environment, although it described ocean freight effects through Q2 of fiscal year 2026 as minor and is working to diversify countries of origin.
  • −The adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR ratio increased to 2.17 times at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026 from 2.03 times at the end of fiscal year 2025, alongside additional borrowing and substantial share repurchases as the company pursued a leverage target of 2.5 times. Insiders also recorded four sales and no purchases, with net sales of $8.4 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 12, 2026, but these sales are a weak standalone signal and may have been prearranged unless disclosures indicate otherwise.
  • How is O'Reilly using its cash flows in fiscal year 2026?

    Free cash flow reached $1.5 billion during the first half of fiscal year 2026, compared with $904 million in the corresponding period. The company prioritizes investment in stores, the distribution network, inventory, and technology, with expected annual capital expenditures of between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion. After those investments, it repurchased 34 million shares for $3.1 billion from the beginning of fiscal year 2026 through the earnings announcement on July 29, 2026.

    What are the main risks to ORLY's growth slowing in the second half of fiscal year 2026?

    Management expects same-SKU price inflation support to decline from 5.5% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 to 1%–2% in the second half, with further moderation by Q4. DIY transaction counts also declined by low single digits during Q2, amid weather sensitivity and pressure from fuel prices on consumers. In addition, SG&A expenses per store increased 4.8% in Q2, requiring expense moderation to achieve the targeted annual range of 3.5%–4%.

    How does O'Reilly plan to expand its network in fiscal year 2026?

    The company opened 110 net new stores during the first half of fiscal year 2026 across 31 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. It targets 225–235 net new store openings for the full year, supported by a network of approximately 6,700 stores. The new 690,000-square-foot Atlanta distribution center also supports expansion in the southeastern United States and import-processing capacity.