| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 84 | 4.9x | 17.6x | Top tier | |
Growth | 83 | 79.7% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 68 | 1.3% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 22 | 17.4x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 66 | 19.54% | 2.15% | Around median | |
Momentum | 23 | -6.2% | 2.3% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 64 | 3 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Orchid Island Capital manages a portfolio of mortgage assets and finances it extensively through repurchase agreements, while using interest rate swaps, TBA positions, futures, and swaptions for hedging. The portfolio averaged $11.4 billion in Q2 FY2026, and all of its holdings had 30-year maturities and were concentrated primarily in 5%, 5.5%, and 6% coupons, with the 5.5% coupon being the largest component. Economic returns depend on the spread between asset yields and the cost of funding after hedging, so results are affected by interest rate levels, the shape of the yield curve, mortgage spreads, and prepayment speeds.
Revenue was $164.2 million in Q2 FY2026, up 4.1% from $157.8 million in Q1 FY2026. The company went from a net loss of $20.0 million and negative EPS of $0.11 in Q1 FY2026 to net income of $89.2 million and EPS of $0.44 in Q2 FY2026; net income equaled approximately 54.3% of revenue, while the provided data did not include a gross profit figure.
Book value rose from $7.08 at the beginning of Q2 FY2026 to $7.22 at the end, and the quarter's total return was 6.2% versus negative 1.3% in the previous quarter. By contrast, the economic net interest margin declined by 6 basis points, as the portfolio yield fell from 5.75% to 5.74% and the economic funding cost rose by 5 basis points, while the quarterly dividend was reduced from $0.36 in Q1 FY2026 to $0.30 in Q2 FY2026.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The consensus analyst target is $7.50, which is both the highest and lowest target, and falls within the 52-week range of $6.31 to $8.40; it is approximately 10.7% below the top of the range and approximately 18.9% above its bottom. The consensus recommendation is Neutral, and no P/E ratio is available in the data, making book value, dividend sustainability, and net interest margin more relevant reference points than a traditional earnings multiple. The improvement in book value during Q2 FY2026 supports the valuation case, but the dividend reduction and the subsequent estimated decline in book value justify the analysts' cautious stance.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Orchid Island Capital holds a portfolio of mortgage assets and finances a large portion of it through repurchase agreements, then earns a return from the spread between asset yields and the cost of funding after hedging. The portfolio averaged $11.4 billion in Q2 FY2026, and all holdings had 30-year maturities and were concentrated in 5%, 5.5%, and 6% coupons. The portfolio yield was 5.74% in that quarter, while the economic funding cost rose by 5 basis points. This led to a 6-basis-point decline in the economic net interest margin.
Yes, revenue rose to $164.2 million in Q2 FY2026 from $157.8 million in Q1 FY2026. The company generated net income of $89.2 million and EPS of $0.44, following a net loss of $20.0 million and negative EPS of $0.11 in the previous quarter. Book value rose from $7.08 at the beginning of the quarter to $7.22 at the end. Total return was 6.2% versus negative 1.3% in Q1 FY2026.
The company reduced the quarterly dividend from $0.36 in Q1 FY2026 to $0.30 in Q2 FY2026. Management calculated the dividend yield on average book value for Q2 FY2026 at approximately 16.8%, compared with a portfolio yield under GAAP measures of approximately 16.7%. However, hedges cover 91% of repurchase agreement funding rather than 100%, so management acknowledged on July 24, 2026 that a portion of higher funding costs could flow through to earnings. Dividend sustainability will depend on the balance between funding costs and yields on new and existing assets.
The company increased the percentage of repurchase agreement funding covered by hedging instruments from 72% at the end of Q1 FY2026 to 91% at the end of Q2 FY2026. The notional swap balance increased from approximately $7.9 billion to $10.1 billion, and the company added a $500 million five-year swap and a $300 million ten-year swap. The percentage of repurchase agreement funding covered by swaps alone was 70% versus 65% at the end of the previous quarter. The company also selectively uses short TBA positions, futures, and swaptions.
The primary risks are high leverage and the sensitivity of book value to interest rates and mortgage security spreads. Economic leverage was 7.3 times at the end of Q2 FY2026, and management subsequently indicated during the July 24, 2026 call that it had reached approximately 7.73 times. Management also estimated that book value had declined by 4.3% from quarter-end when including the accrued dividend, or 2.9% when excluding it. Additional risks include the 6-basis-point decline in the economic net interest margin and the reduction of the quarterly dividend to $0.30.
The analyst consensus classification in the data is Neutral, and the average price target is $7.50. The highest and lowest targets are both $7.50, so there is no range of estimates providing additional variation among analysts. This target falls between the bottom of the 52-week range at $6.31 and its top at $8.40. The recovery in Q2 FY2026 earnings supports the positive outlook, while the dividend reduction, book value volatility, and leverage risk offset it.
