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Home
Stocks
On Holding AG
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall86
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 6/9Better than 86% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
64
18.7x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
93
19.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
89
18.8%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
82
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
38
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
11
-16.2%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
85
14▲3Top tier
ONON

ONON On Holding AG

On Holding AG · NYSE
Market Closed
27.41
▲ ⁦+2.07%⁩ (+0.56)
Market Cap$9.1B
Beta2.08
52w Low52w High
26.6051.08
Last Week
⁦-1.40%⁩
Last Month
⁦-27.00%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-32.02%⁩
Last Year
⁦-41.13%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$27
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$40
⁦+46%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$20–$82⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$22
⁦-19%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦8⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$22–$40⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$42.20
⁦+54.0%⁩
Current Price $27.41·Median $40.00
Low
$20.00
High
$82.00
Current price
$27.41
Average target
$42.20
Street summary

A Gradual Decline in ONON’s Average Price Targets Amid High Dispersion

ONON’s average price target fell to 42.2 from 45.09 7 days ago and 46.62 30 days ago, a decline of 6.41% and 9.48%, respectively, while the number of analysts remained unchanged at 5. The daily change is negligible, indicating short-term stability after estimates were lowered during the month, but the target range between 20 and 82 reflects a wide divergence of opinions.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-9.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.04
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
82%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
226%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
7
16
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.96 → 4.04
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Bernstein
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Barclays
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    18.69x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.03x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.7%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.0%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    200.0%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    64.8%
    12.0%66.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    18.8%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-11 data

Company Overview

On Holding AG designs and markets premium athletic footwear and apparel, with its technological identity centered on platforms such as CloudTec, LightSpray, Helion HF, and SenseTec. The company generates revenue through direct-to-consumer sales, including e-commerce and owned stores, and through the wholesale channel; in Q2 FY2026, direct-to-consumer sales reached CHF 388 million and represented 45.7% of total sales, making this the fastest-growing channel and the strongest contributor to margins, according to management. Footwear remains the largest business, but apparel, tennis, and training have become additional expansion drivers, with a geographic presence spanning the Americas, EMEA, and APAC.

In Q2 FY2026, On recorded net sales of CHF 850 million, up 21.6% on a constant-currency basis and 13.5% on a reported basis. Gross profit margin reached 65.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.8%, while adjusted EBITDA growth exceeded 30% on a constant-currency basis. Direct-to-consumer sales grew 34.3% on a constant-currency basis, compared with 12.7% for wholesale, while footwear sales rose 18.9% and apparel sales increased 56.2% on a constant-currency basis, showing that the improved mix toward higher-margin channels and categories partially offset the wholesale slowdown.

Geographically, Q2 FY2026 net sales grew 54.7% on a constant-currency basis in APAC and 20.5% in EMEA, compared with 13.0% in the Americas, where weakness was concentrated in wholesale. These operating results are consistent with the company’s longer-term expansion: FY2025 revenue rose to $3.0 billion from $2.3 billion in FY2024, while gross profit increased to $1.9 billion from $1.4 billion. However, the August 11, 2026 results fell short of market estimates for net sales, causing the stock to decline 19% in a reaction that reflected concerns about slowing wholesale sales, tariffs, and consumer caution.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The direct-to-consumer channel is the clearest financial driver; it grew 34.3% on a constant-currency basis in Q2 FY2026 and increased its share to 45.7% of sales, with e-commerce performance exceeding management’s expectations across all regions and a further increase in the share of full-price sales.
  • Growth is broadening beyond core footwear; apparel rose 56.2% on a constant-currency basis, the training category grew 40%, and tennis apparel sales nearly tripled in Q2 FY2026. Apparel also accounted for a record 28% share of net sales from the running campaign, and every style in the Zendaya collection exceeded expectations in the United States by triple-digit percentages.
  • The new product cycle supports premium demand; Cloudmonster 3 Hyper LightSpray releases sold out immediately after launching in March 2026, and independent testing showed a 1.6% improvement in running economy for Cloudboom Strike 2 compared with leading competing shoes. After Cloudsurfer 3 featuring SURREAL technology was presented, retail partners doubled their orders for the Spring/Summer 2027 season.
  • APAC is recording the fastest regional expansion, growing 54.7% on a constant-currency basis and 43.1% on a reported basis in Q2 FY2026, with strength in Japan, Korea, and Greater China. In EMEA, constant-currency growth reached 20.5%, while the Champs-Élysées store was the best-performing store globally and the Stockholm store was operating at twice the expected level two months after opening.
  • Management expects FY2026 net sales growth in the low-twenties percentage range on a constant-currency basis, a gross profit margin of at least 65%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 20%. The higher gross margin outlook is based on an increased direct-to-consumer mix, while excluding any potential benefit from tariff refunds.
  • Brand awareness reached 30%, and consumers under 34 years old now represent more than one-third of the customer base. This was reflected in 190% year-over-year growth for the Cloudtilt franchise, with three of its styles ranking among the top five sellers at Foot Locker Europe in Q2 FY2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +On’s model combines growth exceeding 20% with high margins; in Q2 FY2026, net sales grew 21.6% on a constant-currency basis, gross profit margin reached 65.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.8%.
  • +The shift toward direct-to-consumer provides a dual lever for growth and profitability, as the channel grew 34.3% on a constant-currency basis and reached 45.7% of sales, while the company maintained a higher share of full-price sales instead of relying on discounts.
  • +Growth drivers are distributed across APAC, apparel, training, tennis, and Cloudtilt, rather than relying exclusively on everyday running shoes; APAC grew 54.7%, apparel 56.2%, and training 40% on a constant-currency basis in Q2 FY2026.
  • +The company ended Q2 FY2026 with more than CHF 1.2 billion in net cash after increasing its cash balance by CHF 185.2 million, giving it internal capacity to fund innovation, stores, and brand building. Insider activity through August 14, 2026 also showed net purchases of $3.9 million over three months, with two purchases versus one sale.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $46.17, compared with a wide range of $20 to $82, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 9.6% below the 52-week range high of $51.08, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 60.5%. This dispersion reflects significant disagreement over the value of direct-to-consumer growth and innovation versus the wholesale slowdown, and the stock’s 19% decline following the August 11, 2026 results confirmed the valuation’s sensitivity to any revenue shortfall despite the gross margin reaching 65.4%.

BuyAnalyst target: $46.17(+68.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why did ONON stock decline after the Q2 FY2026 results?

On reported net sales of CHF 850 million on August 11, 2026, but the figure fell short of market estimates, causing the stock to decline 19%. Weakness was concentrated in wholesale in the Americas, where some everyday running franchises sold at a pace below management’s ambitions amid a promotional market. The company chose to reduce sell-in to the channel rather than build inventory that could threaten full-price sales, while news reports also linked the pressure to U.S. tariffs and cautious consumer spending.

Is On still achieving strong growth despite the wholesale slowdown?

Q2 FY2026 net sales grew 21.6% on a constant-currency basis and 13.5% on a reported basis to CHF 850 million. Direct-to-consumer led growth with a 34.3% constant-currency increase, compared with 12.7% for wholesale, and the direct-to-consumer share rose to 45.7%. Geographically, APAC achieved 54.7% growth and EMEA achieved 20.5% growth on a constant-currency basis, partially offsetting slower growth of 13.0% in the Americas.

What are On’s most important products that could support growth in FY2026 and FY2027?

Cloudmonster 3 Hyper LightSpray sold out immediately after its March 2026 launch, while Cloudboom Strike 2 demonstrated an independently measured 1.6% improvement in running economy compared with leading competing shoes. The company began expanding Cloudsurfer 3 featuring SURREAL foam with specialty running partners in October 2026, after their orders for the Spring/Summer 2027 season doubled following its presentation at the Paris Running Summit. The refresh cycle also includes Cloudsurfer Max 2 and the return of Flow, as part of a plan to update all everyday running franchises with new technologies within 14 months of the August 11, 2026 call.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Wholesale weakness in the Americas represents the most immediate operating risk; wholesale sales grew only 12.7% on a constant-currency basis and 4.8% on a reported basis in Q2 FY2026, with some everyday running franchises performing below management’s ambitions. These conditions prompted the company to restrict sell-in to the channel during Q2 and Q3 to protect inventory levels and full-price sales, pressuring revenue before the new product cycle arrives.
  • −Q2 FY2026 net sales fell short of Wall Street estimates, and the August 11, 2026 announcement caused the stock to decline 19%. News reports indicated that cautious consumer spending and a difficult environment for premium consumer goods contributed to revenue weakness, which could limit On’s ability to maintain its growth pace if demand pressure persists.
  • −On operates in a highly promotional and competitive athletic market, and management stated that discounting by other brands affected sales of some everyday running franchises within multi-brand retail channels. The company’s commitment to a $160 entry price for everyday running shoes, with prices reaching $290 for LightSpray products, protects the brand image but increases demand sensitivity if the price gap with competitors widens.
  • −The company raised its FY2026 gross profit margin outlook to at least 65%, but maintained its adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at 19.5% to 20%. Management explained that the lower revenue outlook reduces operating leverage, alongside continued investment in marketing, digitalization, and growth; marketing expenses reached 14.0% of net sales in Q2 FY2026.
  • −U.S. tariffs and the supply chain remain sources of cost pressure, even though On was able to absorb the tariffs and increase its gross margin to 65.4% in Q2 FY2026. The margin outlook does not include any tariff refunds, while management did not specify the value of the refunds it expects to recognize partially in Q3 FY2026.
  • −Inventory rose 30% at the end of Q2 FY2026, with management attributing most of the increase to volume growth and currency movements. Although net working capital improved by CHF 14.9 million from the previous quarter and remained below 20% of sales, higher inventory becomes a greater risk if weak sales of everyday running franchises in U.S. wholesale persist.
  • How does On maintain high margins despite U.S. tariffs?

    Gross profit margin reached 65.4% in Q2 FY2026, driven by a higher direct-to-consumer mix, full-price sales discipline, operational efficiencies, shipping mix, and some positive currency effects. These factors helped the company absorb U.S. tariffs without relying on any refunds during the quarter. Management expects a gross margin of at least 65% and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 20% for FY2026.

    Does On’s expansion extend beyond running shoes?

    Apparel grew 56.2% on a constant-currency basis in Q2 FY2026 and represented 28% of net sales from the running campaign. The training category achieved 40% growth, while tennis apparel sales nearly tripled, supported by collections such as Tennis Court and Zendaya and technologies such as SenseTec. In lifestyle, the Cloudtilt franchise grew 190% year over year, with three of its styles ranking among the top five sellers at Foot Locker Europe.

    What do the balance sheet and insider activity indicate about On’s position?

    On ended Q2 FY2026 with more than CHF 1.2 billion in net cash after increasing its cash balance by CHF 185.2 million during the quarter. Net working capital improved by CHF 14.9 million from the previous quarter and remained below 20% of sales, despite a 30% increase in inventory due to volume growth and currency movements. Through August 14, 2026, insider activity over three months showed net purchases of $3.9 million, with two purchases versus one sale, a supportive signal that does not replace monitoring wholesale and inventory performance.