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ON Semiconductor Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall56
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 4/9SafeBetter than 56% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
25
56.2x▼17.2xBottom tier
▸
Growth
37
-3.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
65
4.8%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
78
1.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
39
0.00%▼0.19%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
62
47.3%▲0.5%Around median
▸
Sentiment
68
20▲3Top tier
ON

ON ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
84.89
▲ ⁦+6.01%⁩ (+4.81)
Market Cap$33.0B
Beta2.00
52w Low52w High
44.56134.92
Last Week
⁦+9.96%⁩
Last Month
⁦+17.35%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-10.35%⁩
Last Year
⁦+75.57%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$85⁩
  • Discounted cash flow model
    ⁦14.3%⁩ discount rate · follows analysts' earnings estimates, then ⁦20%⁩ growth
    ⁦$126⁩
    ⁦+49%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$109⁩–⁦$150⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦−45%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Next year's earnings × ⁦34.3⁩, median of 70 companies
    ⁦$126⁩
    ⁦+48%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$80⁩–⁦$202⁩⁩
  • Analyst targets
    16 analysts
    ⁦$95⁩
    ⁦+12%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$62⁩–⁦$150⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+21%⁩

The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today

  • Value with no growth
    Today's after-tax operating profit, held flat forever, at a ⁦14.3%⁩ discount rate
    ⁦$6.92⁩
    ⁦−92%⁩

⁦92%⁩ of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.

2
methods value it above the price
1
methods near the price
0
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.29%⁩ as of ⁦2026-09-30⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 16 analysts setting price target
$99.50
⁦+17.2%⁩
Current Price $84.89·Median $95.00
Low
$62.00
High
$150.00
Current price
$84.89
Average target
$99.50
Street summary

Slight Decline in Consensus and Wider Target Range

The average price target remained at 99.5 across 16 analysts, unchanged over one day and up marginally by 0.06% over seven days. However, compared with August 26, consensus declined by 5.17 points, or 4.94%, from 104.67 to 99.5. The current range is between 62 and 150, versus a current price of 77.2, reflecting a clear divergence among analyst estimates despite consensus remaining above the current price.

As of 2026-09-25
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-4.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.53
Buy
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
104%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
2
12
16
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.47 → 3.53
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-22
    Seaport Global
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-17
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    56.22x
    7.22x57.79x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    23.16x
    5.29x42.31x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    24.05x
    4.59x36.75x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    4.5%
    -57.2%11.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -3.1%
    -20.2%64.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    39.8%
    -163.9%188.1%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    37.7%
    13.2%79.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    4.8%
    -62.6%26.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.14x
    0.26x3.21x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.0%1.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.13
    -9.9014.38
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-08-28Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

ON Semiconductor Corporation, commercially known as onsemi, operates in power semiconductor, sensing, connectivity, and control solutions aimed at automotive and industrial applications and AI data center infrastructure. The company generates revenue from the Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group, with a portfolio spanning high-voltage solutions such as EliteSiC and low-voltage power delivery near the processor, as well as the Treo analog and mixed-signal platform, 10BASE-T1S products, and inductive and ultrasonic sensing.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $1.6 billion, up 9% year over year and 6% sequentially, while net income according to EDGAR was approximately $226.8 million and diluted GAAP earnings per share were $0.56. GAAP gross margin was 38.4%, while non-GAAP gross margin was 39.3% after rising 80 basis points sequentially, and operating margin reached 16.1% on a GAAP basis and 20.8% on a non-GAAP basis. Free cash flow also increased to $425 million, and its trailing-twelve-month margin reached a record 24%.

Automotive represented the largest end market in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenue of $781 million, down 2% sequentially and up 7% year over year, followed by industrial applications at $423 million, up 1% sequentially and 4% year over year, then the Other category at $400 million, up 34% sequentially, driven primarily by AI data centers. At the business-group level, the Power Solutions Group generated revenue of $829 million and year-over-year growth of 19%, compared with $546 million for the Analog and Mixed Signal Group, down 2% year over year, and $229 million for the Intelligent Sensing Group, up 7% year over year. On a fiscal 2025 basis, the company recorded revenue of $6.0 billion and net income of $121 million, while the trailing-twelve-month figures provided for 2026 were approximately $6.2 billion in revenue and $630.2 million in net income.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 3, 2026, onsemi raised its fiscal 2026 AI data center revenue outlook from doubling to more than doubling compared with 2025, and expects EliteSiC revenue in these applications to grow by approximately 60%. This is supported by the expansion of the company’s role in the NVIDIA MGX ecosystem, two power-supply platform wins at Great Wall, and designs related to power supplies and backup battery systems at AWS.
  • The company expects fiscal 2026 third-quarter revenue of between $1.65 billion and $1.75 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of between 40% and 42%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of between $0.81 and $0.93. Management expects the Other category, which includes the AI data center business, to grow by a high-teens percentage sequentially, compared with low-single-digit growth in automotive and approximately flat industrial applications.
  • Capacity utilization increased to 83% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 from 77% in the previous quarter, and the company estimates that each additional percentage point of utilization could add between 25 and 30 basis points to gross margin, assuming a constant mix. It also expects annual savings of approximately $35 million from the sale of the Mountain Top and Philippines facilities, with the impact beginning in 2027 and becoming fully realized in 2028.
  • In China, automotive revenue increased 13% during the first half of fiscal 2026 despite a 4% decline in total vehicle sales, supported by higher content with customers such as Geely Zeekr and Xiaomi. onsemi expects automotive EliteSiC revenue in China to grow between 60% and 70% year over year, and it also secured power content on the Rivian R2 platform, including MOSFET modules for power distribution and EliteSiC solutions for onboard charging.
  • onsemi expects energy storage system revenue to grow by approximately 40% during fiscal 2026, and it launched a hybrid EliteSiC module with 99.3% efficiency and began sampling a 500-kilowatt hybrid platform with 20% higher power density than its previous platform. In addition, the book-to-bill ratio has remained well above one for several quarters, and average lead times extended from approximately 27 weeks to nearly 32 weeks.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The growth trajectory combines accelerating AI data center demand with a recovery in automotive and industrial applications; revenue grew 9% year over year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, while the company expects AI data center revenue to more than double during fiscal 2026.
  • +The results demonstrate clear operating leverage, as non-GAAP gross margin increased for the fourth consecutive quarter to 39.3%, and the company is targeting 40% to 42% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Free cash flow reached $425 million in the second quarter, with $332 million returned to shareholders through share repurchases.
  • +The power portfolio spanning the grid to the processor provides multiple content opportunities instead of relying on a single product; the company expects its content in data center racks with 800-volt distribution to increase from approximately $15 thousand to $115 thousand as the architecture evolves. Management expects this architecture to begin ramping near the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028, with gradual growth as racks and data centers are deployed.
  • +Content gains in China and the United States support diversification of automotive growth drivers, with automotive revenue in China increasing 13% during the first half of fiscal 2026 and the company securing content in the Rivian R2. Products launched during the previous two years, including 10BASE-T1S and inductive and ultrasonic sensing products, also represent a growing share of new design wins.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $104.67, with a consensus Buy rating, but it is below the 52-week range high of $134.92. The wide target range between $40 and $150 limits the significance of the average alone, as it reflects substantial differences in estimates of the impact of the automotive and industrial application recovery, accelerating AI data center demand, and cost and capacity risks. The available data does not provide a usable earnings multiple, so the valuation assessment is based on the target range, the 52-week range, and actual financial performance rather than an unavailable earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $104.67(+23.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ON’s growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026?

onsemi’s revenue reached approximately $1.6 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up 9% year over year and 6% sequentially, with the strongest demand coming from AI data centers. The Other category, which includes this business, increased 34% sequentially to $400 million, while the Power Solutions Group delivered 19% year-over-year growth to $829 million. Improved mix and manufacturing performance contributed to raising non-GAAP gross margin to 39.3%, up 80 basis points sequentially.

How large is onsemi’s AI data center opportunity?

Management expects AI data center revenue to more than double during fiscal 2026 compared with 2025, and EliteSiC revenue in these applications to grow by approximately 60%. The wins include an expanded role in NVIDIA MGX, two platform wins at Great Wall, and power-supply and backup-battery designs at AWS. The company also expects its content in 800-volt distribution racks to increase from approximately $15 thousand to $115 thousand, with this architecture expected to begin ramping near the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028.

Is ON’s automotive business improving despite the sequential decline?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Demand arriving faster than the four-to-six-month manufacturing cycle created constraints in some power product lanes, forcing onsemi in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to prioritize AI data center shipments over some automotive and industrial application orders. The extension of average lead times from approximately 27 to 32 weeks increases the risk of delayed order fulfillment or lost opportunities if demand continues to accelerate before production catches up.
  • −The company faces increases in raw material and external manufacturing costs, and management confirmed on August 3, 2026, that the prices it receives from suppliers are not trending downward and that some increases will take effect in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. onsemi has begun a second round of price increases, but pricing actions in the second quarter only offset costs and did not add a meaningful improvement to margin.
  • −The recovery remains uneven across businesses; automotive revenue declined 2% sequentially to $781 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and the company expects industrial revenue to remain approximately flat in the third quarter. Analog and Mixed Signal Group revenue also declined 2% year over year, and parts of the traditional industrial market remained in contraction.
  • −Inventory stood at 192 days in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 despite declining by nine days sequentially, while internal inventory was 125 days and distribution-channel inventory was 10.1 weeks. The persistence of this elevated level remains an operational risk if demand signals weaken after capacity utilization was raised to 83%.
  • −Completion of the announced agreement to acquire Synaptics remains subject to customary approvals, with closing targeted for mid-2027. Therefore, the expected benefits from combining Synaptics’ connected computing capabilities with onsemi’s power, sensing, and control portfolio cannot be treated as realized benefits before the transaction is completed.
  • −The analyst target range of $40 to $150 reveals sharp divergence in value estimates, even though the average target is $104.67 and the consensus rating is Buy. The stock’s 52-week range, from $44.56 to $134.92, also reflects high sensitivity to expectations for the semiconductor cycle and the pace at which AI growth is converted into sustainable revenue and margins.

Automotive revenue declined 2% sequentially in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to $781 million, but it increased 7% year over year and grew by approximately 6% during the first half of fiscal 2026. In China, automotive revenue grew 13% during the first half despite a 4% decline in total vehicle sales, supported by higher content with Geely Zeekr and Xiaomi. The company expects automotive EliteSiC revenue in China to grow between 60% and 70% year over year, while the Rivian R2 platform also includes MOSFET modules and EliteSiC solutions from onsemi.

What do onsemi’s profitability and cash flows look like?

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company recorded EDGAR net income of $226.8 million and GAAP earnings per share of $0.56. GAAP gross margin was 38.4%, compared with 39.3% on a non-GAAP basis, while free cash flow reached $425 million. The company returned $332 million through share repurchases during the quarter, and its trailing-twelve-month free cash flow margin reached a record 24%.

What is onsemi’s outlook for the third quarter of fiscal 2026?

The company expects revenue of between $1.65 billion and $1.75 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to range between 40% and 42%, while non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to range between $0.81 and $0.93. Management expects low-single-digit sequential growth in automotive, approximately flat industrial applications, and high-teens growth in the Other category driven by AI data centers.

What are the main risks to monitor for ON stock?

Operational risks include the extension of average lead times from approximately 27 to 32 weeks, constraints in some power product lanes, and higher raw material and external manufacturing costs. Inventory also stood at 192 days in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, despite declining by nine days, while the company raised factory utilization to 83%. In addition, the agreement to acquire Synaptics remains subject to customary approvals until the targeted closing in mid-2027, while the analyst target range extends widely from $40 to $150.