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Home
Stocks
Olin Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall14
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketValue TrapF 4/9DistressBetter than 14% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
74
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
16
0.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
17
-0.6%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
35
8.2x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
33
4.65%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
16
-20.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
62
6▲3Around median
OLN

OLN Olin Corporation

Olin Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
17.20
▼ ⁦-0.66%⁩ (-0.12)
Market Cap$2.0B
Beta1.20
52w Low52w High
16.7330.46
Last Week
⁦+1.36%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.12%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-33.23%⁩
Last Year
⁦-26.90%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$17
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$21
⁦+22%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$20–$31⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-2.53
⁦-115%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.7⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-2.53–$21⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$23.63
⁦+37.4%⁩
Current Price $17.20·Median $21.00
Low
$20.00
High
$31.00
Current price
$17.20
Average target
$23.63
Street summary

Slight Decline and Greater Dispersion in OLN Targets

The consensus price target did not change over the day or week, remaining at 23.63 versus a current price of 17.2. Over 30 days, the consensus declined by 0.50, or 2.07%, from 24.13 to 23.63, alongside a decrease in the number of covered analysts from 9 to 4; therefore, the change reflects a decline in coverage more than a broad new reduction in targets. Current targets range between 20 and 31, with a median of 21, indicating clear dispersion among estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦13 (-5)⁩
Buy conviction
8%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
64%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
1
11
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.07 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Goldman Sachs
    Neutral
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-06-30
    Citigroup
    NeutralUnderperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    22.70x
    3.70x29.59x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.20x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    9.4%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    0.6%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -1368.6%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    6.9%
    7.6%58.9%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    -0.6%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    8.21x
    0.22x3.72x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    4.6%
    0.2%5.5%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.54
    -11.4212.56
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Olin Corporation operates through three interconnected operating pillars: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and commercial and military Winchester ammunition. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business relies on sales of caustic soda, chlorine, and their derivatives, including EDC and VCM, while the Epoxy business generates revenue from resins and related products in the United States and Europe. Winchester benefits from commercial ammunition sales, alongside domestic and international military sales and projects.

In fiscal 2026 quarter 2, Olin recorded revenue of $1.7 billion and gross profit of $170.2 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 10.0%, but incurred a net loss of $13.3 million and a loss per share of $0.12. The result improved significantly compared with fiscal 2026 quarter 1, when revenue was $1.6 billion, gross profit was $75.8 million, and the net loss was $83.0 million, but the continued loss confirms that the operating recovery has not yet translated into a net profit.

The operating improvement came from several areas within the mix: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls benefited from higher export prices for caustic soda and EDC, Epoxy delivered its best performance in more than three years and returned to profitability, while Winchester's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization improved, supported by recovering commercial demand and strong military sales. Conversely, the unplanned outage at the VCM facility in Freeport, Texas, reduced adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by approximately $40 million during the quarter.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The planned merger with Huntsman represents the most prominent strategic catalyst, as it aims to create an integrated chemicals company focused on North America with sales exceeding $12 billion, expected savings of $400 million, and anticipated transaction closing in the first half of fiscal 2027, following the special shareholder meeting scheduled for August 25, 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The Beyond250 program supports the path to improved profitability, as Olin targets more than $100 million of additional structural cost savings in fiscal 2026, and management is increasingly confident that it will exceed the $250 million target by fiscal 2028. Within Epoxy alone, new supply agreements in Stade and the closure of the Guarulhos plant reduced structural costs by more than $50 million annually.
  • The Epoxy business returned to positive earnings and delivered its best results in more than three years in fiscal 2026 quarter 2, after implementing price increases to offset higher raw material and transportation costs. Management expects its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to remain positive in fiscal 2026 quarter 3, despite an anticipated sequential decline due to higher European FIFO costs.
  • Winchester's dynamics are improving, with monthly commercial ammunition sales growing year over year and strong domestic and international military sales. Management expects Winchester's earnings to improve sequentially in fiscal 2026 quarter 3, supported by the fall hunting season and price increases, and also believes that the business's savings will exceed its $30 million target following the efficiency assessment at the Lake City facility.
  • Olin expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $100 million and $200 million for fiscal 2026 quarter 3, with relatively stable chemicals earnings and modest improvement at Winchester. Export volumes of caustic soda and EDC are expected to improve, but lower export prices will offset most of the impact, while reduced available capacity and planned industry shutdowns could support supply conditions in fiscal 2026 quarter 4.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The improvement from a net loss of $83.0 million in fiscal 2026 quarter 1 to $13.3 million in fiscal 2026 quarter 2 shows that price increases, cost reductions, and recovery in certain markets have begun to narrow losses, alongside an increase in gross profit from $75.8 million to $170.2 million.
    • +Beyond250 provides an internal lever that does not depend entirely on a recovery in chemicals markets; the company targets more than $100 million of additional structural savings in fiscal 2026 and expects to exceed $250 million by fiscal 2028, in addition to more than $50 million of annual reductions achieved in Epoxy.
    • +Available liquidity of $1.2 billion and the absence of bond maturities before 2029 give the company room to manage the weak cycle and fund targeted capital expenditures of approximately $200 million in fiscal 2026, with any excess cash flows directed toward debt reduction.
    • +The planned merger with Huntsman could increase efficiency and scale if completed as planned, as it targets combined sales exceeding $12 billion and savings of $400 million. This adds a potential source of value above the ongoing operating improvements within Olin, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of fiscal 2027.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −End-market demand remains weak in important parts of the portfolio; Epoxy demand in Europe remained stable without the usual seasonal improvement, while management described underlying demand linked to housing and automobiles as stable but not yet recovering. Management also said it is not relying on an improvement in the European market in the near term because of high energy costs and weak housing and industrial demand.
    • −The outlook for fiscal 2026 quarter 3 indicates limited earnings momentum, as management expects adjusted chemicals earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to remain approximately stable, Epoxy earnings to decline sequentially, and weaker export prices to offset most of the benefit from improved caustic soda and EDC volumes. The range for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization remains wide at $100 million to $200 million, reflecting high volatility in the operating outlook.
    • −The outage at the VCM facility in Freeport demonstrated operational reliability risks after reducing adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by approximately $40 million in fiscal 2026 quarter 2. The facility will continue operating at reduced rates during fiscal 2026 quarter 3 while repairs are completed, with an additional estimated impact of approximately $20 million.
    • −High leverage represents a clear financial burden, as Olin expects to end fiscal 2026 with leverage of approximately 4.5 times and higher debt than at the end of fiscal 2025. This is partly related to legacy litigation payments of approximately $195 million during fiscal 2026, of which $93 million was paid in the first half and $100 million is expected in the second half.
    • −Margins are exposed to volatility in raw materials, energy, and supply chains; higher hydrocarbon costs will pressure the FIFO impact in Epoxy during fiscal 2026 quarter 3, while Winchester faces higher copper and brass costs despite price increases. Supply disruptions provided temporary pricing support in fiscal 2026 quarter 2, but export prices for caustic soda and EDC declined as markets rebalanced.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $23.63, within a wide range of $20 to $31, with a neutral consensus; the average is below the 52-week range high of $30.46, while the highest target is close to that high. No usable price-to-earnings multiple is available while the net loss continues, so the valuation depends more heavily on successful cost reductions, recovery in operating earnings, and a reduction in leverage of approximately 4.5 times expected at the end of fiscal 2026, alongside execution of the Huntsman merger and its targeted savings.

    HoldAnalyst target: $23.63(+37.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Which businesses drive Olin Corporation's results?

    Olin operates through Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester commercial and military ammunition. In fiscal 2026 quarter 2, the chemicals business benefited from higher caustic soda and EDC prices and improved Epoxy product pricing, while recovering commercial demand and strong military sales supported Winchester's results. Epoxy delivered its best performance in more than three years and returned to positive earnings, but the outage at the VCM facility in Freeport reduced adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by approximately $40 million.

    Did Olin return to profitability in fiscal 2026 quarter 2?

    Olin did not return to net profitability, as it recorded a net loss of $13.3 million and a loss per share of $0.12 in fiscal 2026 quarter 2. Nevertheless, the result improved compared with fiscal 2026 quarter 1, which recorded a net loss of $83.0 million and a loss per share of $0.73. Gross profit increased between the two periods from $75.8 million to $170.2 million, narrowing the loss but not eliminating it.

    Why is Olin's planned merger with Huntsman important?

    On June 16, 2026, Olin announced a planned merger with Huntsman to create an integrated chemicals company focused on North America with sales exceeding $12 billion. The transaction targets savings of $400 million, and Olin shareholders began voting ahead of the special meeting scheduled for August 25, 2026. Management expects the transaction to close in the first half of fiscal 2027, with pre-closing integration planning beginning during fiscal 2026 quarter 3.

    What is Olin's outlook for fiscal 2026 quarter 3?

    Management expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $100 million and $200 million in fiscal 2026 quarter 3. Chemicals earnings are expected to remain approximately stable, with improvement in Chlor Alkali offset by a slight sequential decline in Epoxy due to higher European FIFO costs. The company also expects modest improvement at Winchester, supported by commercial volumes and pricing, while corporate and metals costs remain pressure factors.

    What is the state of Olin's liquidity and debt?

    Olin ended fiscal 2026 quarter 2 with available liquidity of $1.2 billion, including undrawn capacity under its revolving credit facility, and there are no bond maturities before 2029. Working capital increased by $183 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, including $93 million of legacy litigation reserve payments. The company expects to pay an additional $100 million in the second half of fiscal 2026 and end the year with leverage of approximately 4.5 times, while allocating any excess cash flows to debt reduction.

    What does the Beyond250 program offer Olin shareholders?

    Beyond250 targets structural cost reductions exceeding $250 million by fiscal 2028, and management says it is increasingly confident that it will exceed this target. In fiscal 2026 alone, the company targets more than $100 million of additional structural savings. New supply agreements in Stade and the closure of the Guarulhos plant contributed to reducing Epoxy costs by more than $50 million annually, while Winchester targets savings of $30 million that management may exceed following the assessment of the Lake City facility.

  • −The neutral analyst consensus and targets ranging from $20 to $31 reflect significant divergence in valuation estimates, while the average is $23.63 and remains below the 52-week range high of $30.46. This caution is consistent with continuing losses and a trailing-twelve-month net loss of $195.8 million in one of the latest EDGAR readings, in addition to the execution risks associated with the Huntsman merger and achieving its $400 million of savings.