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Stocks
Northwest Natural Holding Company
NWN

NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company

Northwest Natural Holding Company · NYSE
Market Closed
48.44
▼ ⁦-1.26%⁩ (-0.62)
Market Cap$2.1B
Beta0.43
52w Low52w High
40.9055.99
Last Week
⁦-1.62%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.02%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.44%⁩
Last Year
⁦+17.86%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall37
Weak — below market medianTurnaroundF 5/9DistressBetter than 37% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
57
16.1x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
54
4.4%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
40
6.2%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
25
5.7x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
35
4.03%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
62
22.9%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
39
4▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$48
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$54
⁦+11%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$50–$58⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$54.00
⁦+11.5%⁩
Current Price $48.44·Median $54.00
Low
$50.00
High
$58.00
Current price
$48.44
Average target
$54.00
Street summary

Price Forecast Analysis for Northwest Natural Holding (NWN)

NWN stock shows complete stability in the average target price at 55.25 dollars over the past thirty days, with an absence of any recent revisions by analysts. The price range between the low (50 dollars) and the high (58 dollars) indicates limited variance in expectations, as the stock is currently trading near the lower end of the targets, reflecting a conservative market outlook at the moment.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.50
Buy
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Target dispersion
17%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
3
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.38 → 3.50
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-11
    Wells Fargo
    Equal-WeightUnderweight· $50.00
  • = Reiterate2026-04-16
    TD Cowen
    Hold· $58.00
  • = Reiterate2026-03-04
    Stifel Nicolaus
    —· $58.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.15x
    4.50x36.01x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    14.59x
    4.35x34.77x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.11x
    3.07x24.54x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -13.0%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Below average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.4%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    18.6%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    45.2%
    9.8%69.4%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    6.2%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.74x
    1.28x10.25x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    4.0%
    1.4%6.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    65.2%
    35.0%95.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.68
    0.573.91
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Northwest Natural Holding Company operates through three main utility platforms: Northwest Natural Gas, SiEnergy, and Northwest Natural Water, in addition to the MX3 gas storage project. Its economic model relies on investing capital in gas and water networks, then recovering these investments and earning a return on them through regulatory frameworks, while SiEnergy adds a high-growth engine in Texas thanks to customer growth of more than 15% and more than 260 thousand future meters in its backlog.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $243.6 million, net income was $0.6 million, and earnings per share were $0.01, compared with the same earnings per share of $0.01 in the corresponding period. Trailing twelve-month revenue was $1.3 billion, net income was $122.9 million, and earnings per share were approximately $2.94; the data do not include a gross profit figure that would allow a reliable gross margin calculation.

At the operating mix level in Q2 fiscal 2026, Northwest Natural Gas generated earnings per share of $0.09, SiEnergy approximately $0.05, and Northwest Natural Water approximately $0.05. The gas contribution declined from $0.12 a year earlier due to higher operating and maintenance, depreciation, and financing expenses, while SiEnergy's contribution increased from $0.03, supported by customer growth and the contribution from Pines, and the water contribution declined from $0.07 due to platform integration and centralization costs.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management is targeting fiscal 2026 earnings per share in the upper half of the guidance range of $2.95 to $3.15, after first-half earnings per share reached $2.33 versus adjusted earnings per share of $2.28 in the corresponding period of fiscal 2025.
  • SiEnergy's customer count grew by more than 15% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and its backlog includes more than 260 thousand future meters; the company expects customer growth to continue at approximately 15% to 20% annually through 2030.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The new Washington rates took effect on August 1, 2026, after Northwest Natural received more than 80% of the requested revenue requirement increase, with a 9.5% return on equity and a capital structure evenly split between equity and long-term debt.
  • The Oregon alternative rate mechanism agreement provides for a revenue requirement of $13 million compared with an original request of $15.6 million, and management expects a decision during fiscal 2026 and the new rates to begin on October 31, 2026.
  • MX3 represents a clearly defined long-term growth option: a $300 million investment to add 4 to 5 billion cubic feet of storage capacity, fully contracted for 25 years with a 12.5% return on equity. The company expects a notice to proceed by the end of 2027 and the project to enter service in 2029, and after the notice, it expects to raise its long-term earnings growth framework from 4%–6% to 5%–7%.
  • The fiscal 2026 capital expenditure plan is approximately $500 to $550 million, and Northwest Natural invested more than $165 million in infrastructure during the first half. Available liquidity also totaled $628 million at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, and the water platform issued $75 million in bonds after its debt received an A- rating.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +NWN combines a regulated utility base with higher-growth drivers, as management expects SiEnergy and Northwest Natural Water together to contribute approximately 25% of earnings per share in fiscal 2026, alongside SiEnergy customer growth of more than 15%.
    • +Regulatory outcomes support the investment recovery path, particularly the implementation of Washington rates on August 1, 2026, along with the proposed Oregon settlement that provides a $13 million revenue requirement beginning October 31, 2026, if the expected decision is issued.
    • +MX3 provides long-term contractual visibility through capacity coverage under 25-year contracts and a regulated return on equity of 12.5%, with the potential to raise long-term earnings growth to 5%–7% after the notice to proceed.
    • +Earnings per share in Q2 and the first half of fiscal 2026 exceeded management's expectations, prompting it to target the upper half of the annual earnings per share range of $2.95 to $3.15, with Northwest Natural's operating and maintenance expenses expected to be below the original plan.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Northwest Natural Gas earnings face pressure from growth in capital and operating costs; segment earnings per share declined to $0.09 in Q2 fiscal 2026 from $0.12 a year earlier, as higher operating and maintenance, depreciation, and financing expenses offset the impact of improved margin resulting from Oregon rates.
    • −Northwest Natural Water's performance in the first half of fiscal 2026 was slightly below plan, and segment earnings per share declined in Q2 to $0.05 from $0.07 a year earlier due to higher operating and maintenance costs associated with platform integration and centralization.
    • −The outlook depends on incomplete regulatory and legal outcomes; the SiEnergy rate case remains under review, the Oregon settlement requires a decision, and the guidance assumes no material changes in prevailing policies, laws, or regulatory outcomes.
    • −The MX3 project was appealed before the Land Use Board of Appeals following approval of the conditional use permit, and although management kept the schedule unchanged, the targeted earnings growth of 5%–7% remains contingent on receiving the expected notice to proceed by the end of 2027.
    • −The fiscal 2026 capital expenditure plan of $500 to $550 million requires financing that includes approximately $150 million of net long-term debt and an equity issuance of approximately $40 to $50 million through the ATM program, creating risks of higher financing burdens and shareholder dilution.
    • −The analyst consensus on NWN is "Neutral," and the average target of $55.33 is close to the top of the 52-week range of $55.99, indicating that analyst estimates do not assume a significant move above the previous high. Net insider activity over three months also totaled negative $229,419.75 across three sales with no purchases through August 18, 2026, with the caveat that insider sales may be prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to demonstrate a weak operating outlook.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on NWN is "Neutral," with an average price target of $55.33 and a target range of $50 to $58. The average target is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $40.9 to $55.99, while the spread of targets between $50 and $58 reflects relatively limited disagreement over the impact of SiEnergy and MX3 growth versus regulatory and financing risks and utility cost pressures.

    HoldAnalyst target: $55.33(+14.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What prompted Northwest Natural to improve its outlook for earnings per share in fiscal 2026?

    Earnings per share in the first half of fiscal 2026 were approximately $2.33, compared with adjusted earnings per share of $2.28 in the corresponding period of fiscal 2025. Management indicated on the August 5, 2026 call that Q2 and first-half results exceeded its expectations, with improved visibility for the second half and cost discipline. It therefore now targets the upper half of the annual guidance range of $2.95 to $3.15 per share.

    Why is SiEnergy considered an important growth driver for NWN stock?

    SiEnergy generated organic customer growth exceeding 15% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and segment earnings per share increased to $0.05 from $0.03 a year earlier. Its backlog includes more than 260 thousand future meters, while management expects customer growth of approximately 15% to 20% annually through 2030. Its results also benefited from a full-quarter contribution from Pines following its acquisition on June 2, 2025.

    What is the importance of the MX3 project to Northwest Natural Holding Company's growth?

    MX3 is a $300 million gas storage expansion project targeting the addition of 4 to 5 billion cubic feet of capacity. The project is fully contracted under 25-year agreements, with a 12.5% return on equity and a capital structure consisting of 50% equity. The company expects a notice to proceed by the end of 2027 and entry into service in 2029, and after the notice, it expects to raise its long-term earnings growth target from 4%–6% to 5%–7%.

    How do regulatory decisions in Oregon and Washington affect NWN's earnings?

    In Washington, the company received more than 80% of the requested revenue requirement increase, with a 9.5% return on equity, and the new rates took effect on August 1, 2026. In Oregon, the multi-party agreement provides for a revenue requirement of $13 million versus an original request of $15.6 million. Management expects a decision during fiscal 2026 and the rates to begin on October 31, 2026, supporting its expectation of stronger second-half performance compared with the corresponding period.

    What are the key financial risks that should be monitored for NWN?

    The company plans capital expenditures of between $500 and $550 million in fiscal 2026 across its three utility platforms. Expected financing includes approximately $150 million of net long-term debt issuance, in addition to $40–50 million of equity through the ATM program. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the impact of higher depreciation and financing costs was already evident in the decline in Northwest Natural Gas earnings per share to $0.09 from $0.12 a year earlier, despite available liquidity of $628 million at quarter-end.