EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
NatWest Group plc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall83
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/8Better than 83% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
93
4.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
26
6.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
83
——Top tier
▸
Safety
10
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
60
2.05%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
84
36.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
77
4▲3Top tier
NWG

NWG NatWest Group plc

NatWest Group plc · NYSE
Market Closed
18.89
▲ ⁦+2.55%⁩ (+0.47)
Market Cap$37.6B
Beta0.81
52w Low52w High
13.5619.42
Last Week
⁦+1.61%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.84%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+21.40%⁩
Last Year
⁦+32.65%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$19
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$18
⁦-4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$18–$18⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$18.20
⁦-3.7%⁩
Current Price $18.89·Median $18.20
Low
$18.20
High
$18.20
Street summary

Stable Targets with Limited Improvement in Valuations

Price targets have not changed over the past 1, 7, or 30 days; consensus remained at 18.2 among 5 analysts, with the high, low, and median targets all matching, indicating no dispersion or clear variation in the targets. Compared with the current price of 18.56, the price exceeds the consensus target by approximately 0.36, without any recent upward revision to the targets.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
75%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
1
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.67 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-02
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-05-11
    BNP Paribas
    UnderperformOutperform· $18.20
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    4.52x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.5%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -59.4%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.1%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    30.0%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

NatWest Group plc operates as a British banking group organized across three businesses: retail banking, private banking and wealth management, and commercial and institutional banking. The group generates income from lending and interest margins on its deposit base, alongside non-interest income and asset management; in Q2 FY2026, total customer loans recorded quarterly growth of £9.7 billion, deposits grew by £2.8 billion, and assets under management and administration reached £130.6 billion after adding £71.7 billion from Evelyn Partners and deducting £4 billion following the sale of Cushion in May 2026.

In Q2 FY2026, income excluding notable items rose 5.4% to £4.4 billion, while total operating expenses increased 1.8% to £2.1 billion, reducing the cost-to-income ratio by one percentage point to 45.5%. Operating profit reached £2.3 billion, up 12.4%, profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reached £1.6 billion, and return on tangible equity was 21%, while impairment charges amounted to £140 million, or 13 basis points of loans.

The annual financial statements demonstrate the breadth of NatWest's earnings base; FY2025 revenue rose to $30.2 billion from $29.3 billion in FY2024, net income increased to $5.8 billion from $4.8 billion, and earnings per share rose to 0.674 from 0.531. At the H1 FY2026 level, customer-related assets and liabilities grew 13.4% after including Evelyn Partners, the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.2%, the average liquidity coverage ratio was 140%, and the loan-to-deposit ratio was 90%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised FY2026 guidance to income of approximately £17.9 billion excluding notable items, a return on tangible equity above 19%, and capital generation before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners of more than 240 basis points.
  • The widening net interest margin supports earnings momentum, as deposit reinvestment offset pressure on lending margins; this coincided in Q2 FY2026 with 15%, or £124 million, growth in non-interest income.
  • Customer-related assets and liabilities increased by £86.8 billion during Q2 FY2026 to £986.9 billion, including broad-based loan growth of £9.7 billion and a £2.8 billion increase in deposits.
  • The completed acquisition of Evelyn Partners strengthened NatWest's presence in the UK wealth management market and added £71.7 billion to assets under management and administration, which ended Q2 FY2026 at £130.6 billion.
  • Operating efficiency improved in H1 FY2026, as income growth of 8.9% outpaced cost growth of 4.5%, reducing the cost-to-income ratio by 2.8 percentage points to 46% and bringing it closer to the 2028 target of below 45%.
  • Credit quality remained supportive of results; impairment charges in Q2 FY2026 amounted to approximately £140 million, or 13 basis points of loans, and management maintained its expectation for a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points for FY2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +NatWest combines income growth with improving efficiency; in Q2 FY2026, income excluding notable items rose 5.4% compared with 1.8% growth in total expenses, helping operating profit increase 12.4% to £2.3 billion.
  • +The bank generated a return on tangible equity of 21% in Q2 FY2026 and raised its full-year guidance to above 19%, while targeting a return above 18% and a cost-to-income ratio below 45% by 2028.
  • +The balance sheet provides capacity to fund growth and return capital; the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.2%, average liquidity coverage was 140%, and management is committed to a payout ratio of approximately 50%, with surplus capital returned through share buybacks.
  • +Evelyn Partners gives the group immediate expansion in wealth management, with the transaction contributing £71.7 billion to assets under management and administration, alongside £3.9 billion growth in mortgage balances and an increase in the share of the mortgage stock to 12.7% in Q2 FY2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $18.2 and identical high and low targets at the same level, compared with a 52-week range of $13.56 to $19.42. The consensus target is approximately 6.3% below the 52-week range high, reflecting a valuation that does not assume a full return to the top of the range despite the elevated return on tangible equity and improved FY2026 guidance; conversely, the narrow target range and its proximity to the historical high are factors that limit the clarity of the re-rating potential.

BuyAnalyst target: $18.2(-3.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove NatWest's results in Q2 FY2026?

Income excluding notable items rose 5.4% to £4.4 billion, supported by growth in customer-related assets and liabilities, wider margins, and a 15% increase in non-interest income. By contrast, total operating expenses grew only 1.8% to £2.1 billion, reducing the cost-to-income ratio to 45.5%. This resulted in operating profit growth of 12.4% to £2.3 billion, profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of £1.6 billion, and a return on tangible equity of 21%.

How did the acquisition of Evelyn Partners change NatWest's business mix?

NatWest's acquisition of Evelyn Partners was completed by the H1 FY2026 results and increased the group's exposure to the UK wealth management market. The transaction added £71.7 billion to assets under management and administration, which reached £130.6 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026. At the same time, the group ended the period with a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.2% after the acquisition, and the transaction also partly contributed to the decline in primary liquidity during the first half.

What is NatWest's guidance for FY2026?

Management raised its return on tangible equity forecast to above 19% for FY2026. It also expects income of approximately £17.9 billion excluding notable items and other operating expenses of approximately £8.5 billion. It further expects to generate more than 240 basis points of capital before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners, while the expected loan impairment rate remains below 25 basis points.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Performance remains sensitive to interest rates and funding margins; despite the widening net interest margin driven by deposit reinvestment, the context acknowledged pressure on lending margins, and offsetting that pressure may become more difficult if the benefit from deposit reinvestment weakens.
  • −The acquisition of Evelyn Partners adds pressure on capital and liquidity; the group ended H1 FY2026 with a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.2% after the transaction, while primary liquidity also declined during the first half partly because of the acquisition alongside increased lending.
  • −Credit and economic risks remain despite current asset quality; NatWest recorded impairment charges of £140 million in Q2 FY2026 and retained a £284 million adjustment for economic uncertainty within total post-model adjustments of £316 million.
  • −The implementation of Basel 3.1 on 1 January 2027 entails capital pressure, as management assumes an increase of approximately €10 billion in risk-weighted assets, which could absorb part of the bank's capacity to generate capital, fund balance-sheet growth, and return funds to shareholders.
  • −Annual revenue growth slowed to approximately 3.1% in FY2025, when revenue reached $30.2 billion compared with $29.3 billion in FY2024, following stronger growth from $25.4 billion in FY2023; therefore, continued earnings growth depends more heavily on margins, efficiency, and non-interest income.
  • −The valuation carries limited margin-of-safety risk when compared with historical highs; the consensus target of $18.2 is below the 52-week range high of $19.42, while the identical high and low targets of $18.2 do not provide a diverse range of valuation scenarios.
  • Does NatWest's loan quality appear stable in FY2026?

    Impairment charges amounted to £140 million in Q2 FY2026, equivalent to 13 basis points of loans. Management said it had not observed signs of new stress across its three businesses and maintained its forecast for a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points for FY2026. However, the bank retained a £284 million adjustment for economic uncertainty within total post-model adjustments of £316 million.

    How does NatWest fund loan growth and maintain liquidity?

    Customer deposits amounted to approximately £448 billion across the three businesses, and deposits represented more than 80% of the group's funding, while the loan-to-deposit ratio remained at 90% in H1 FY2026. The average liquidity coverage ratio reached 140%, and primary liquidity amounted to £152 billion within a total liquidity portfolio of £224.6 billion. NatWest Group issued the equivalent of £2.7 billion in benchmark funding instruments during the first half, alongside the equivalent of £3.7 billion from NatWest Markets.

    What is the impact of Basel 3.1 on NatWest's capital?

    Management expects Basel 3.1 to be implemented on 1 January 2027 and assumes an increase of approximately €10 billion in risk-weighted assets. The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.2% at the end of H1 FY2026, and the group targets operating at approximately 13%. Although the leverage proposals could reduce NatWest's minimum requirement by approximately 40 basis points to 3.9% if adopted, management explained that this would not provide an immediate benefit because the risk-weighted assets framework is the binding constraint.