EL7 Factor Analysis

Overall75

Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 7/9Better than 75% of Market stocks, per EL7's model

Factor	Score	Value	Avg	Rank
Valuation	52	20.6x	17.8x	Around median
Growth	35	0.8%	7.1%	Bottom tier
Quality	93	17.2%	4.5%	Top tier
Safety	68	1.9x	2.6x	Top tier
Capital Return	52	2.99%	2.12%	Around median
Momentum	44	21.8%	2.9%	Around median
Sentiment	74	7	3	Top tier

NVS Novartis AG

Novartis AG · NYSE

Market Closed

137.16

▼ ⁦-0.23%⁩ (-0.32)

Market Cap$261.3B

Beta0.46

52w Low52w High

121.57170.46

Last Week

⁦-15.57%⁩

Last Month

⁦-11.29%⁩

Last 3 Months

⁦-7.40%⁩

Last Year

⁦+7.11%⁩

Fair Value

Current price$137

Analyst target · 6 analysts

$153

⁦+12%⁩

See it undervalued

Range ⁦$136–$170⁩

DCF (estimate)

$126

⁦-8%⁩

Sees it slightly overvalued

⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth

Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$126–$153⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target

$153.00

⁦+11.5%⁩

Current Price $137.16·Median $153.00

Low

$136.00

High

$170.00

Current price

$137.16

Average target

$153.00

Street summary

Novartis Price Target Consensus Declines Amid Divergent Valuations

Novartis's consensus price target stood at 153, unchanged over the last day, but declined from 170 to 153 over the last 7 and 30 days, a decrease of 17 or 10%. With a current price of 137.16, the target range is between 136 and 170, reflecting clear divergence among the six analysts, with their number remaining unchanged.

As of 2026-09-11

Revisions momentum · 30d

⁦-10.0%⁩

Average rating

★ 3.33

Hold

Analyst coverage

Buy conviction

42%

Mixed

Rating activity · 30d

1↑ · 1↓

Mixed

Target dispersion

25%

Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating

Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell

Rating trend — last 12 months2.83 → 3.33

Recent analyst moves

⬆ Upgrade2026-09-10
HSBC
ReduceHold
⬇ Downgrade2026-09-08
Deutsche Bank
BuyHold
= Reiterate2026-09-08
RBC Capital
Sector Perform

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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range

MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict

P/E (TTM)
20.59x
3.94x44.30x
Cheap
Forward P/E
15.05x
4.64x37.16x
Cheap
EV / EBITDA
13.68x
3.77x30.13x
Cheap
FCF Yield
6.0%
-138.2%7.8%
Strong
Revenue Growth YoY
0.8%
-56.9%93.8%
Near median
EPS Growth YoY
-3.3%
-160.1%130.2%
Above average
Gross Margin
74.4%
12.8%90.7%
Strong
ROIC
17.2%
-155.3%16.0%
Exceptional
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.87x
0.60x5.10x
Low debt
Dividend Yield
3.0%
0.0%3.9%
High
Payout Ratio
61.5%
7.4%76.0%
High
Altman Z-Score
—
—

Financial Analysis

Stock Analysis

AI-generated

Based on 2026-07-21 data

Company Overview

Novartis AG, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker NVS, develops and markets innovative medicines and derives revenue from a portfolio spanning oncology, immunology, neuroscience, cardiovascular treatments, and targeted radioligand therapies. In Q2 FY2026, sales strength came from specific brands including KISQALI, Kesimpta, PLUVICTO, LEQVIO, Scemblix, and Cosentyx; the growth drivers collectively grew 36% in constant currencies, partly offsetting the significant erosion caused by the entry of Entresto generics.

In Q2 FY2026, net sales rose 1% in constant currencies to $14.4 billion, and gross profit reached $10.7 billion, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 74.3%. Net income was $3.3 billion and earnings per share were $1.71, while core operating income was stable at $5.9 billion and its margin was 41.2%, down 70 basis points year over year.

The H1 FY2026 results reveal a divergence between the strength of new products and pressure from loss of exclusivity; sales declined 2%, core operating income fell 7%, and the core operating margin decreased 2.3 percentage points to 39.4%. Nevertheless, free cash flow reached $5.6 billion in Q2 and $8.9 billion in H1 FY2026, and the company distributed $9.1 billion in cash dividends and repurchased $2.1 billion of shares during the same period.

What's Driving the Stock

KISQALI sales grew 43% in constant currencies in Q2 FY2026, and its U.S. sales exceeded $1 billion for the first time, with growth of 39%, compared with 49% growth outside the U.S. The drug was approved in 76 countries and reimbursed in 42 countries, while management maintained its peak sales target of $10 billion.
PLUVICTO sales rose 43% in Q2 FY2026, and its use before chemotherapy accounted for more than 70% of new patients in the U.S. The drug delivery network exceeded 880 sites within the U.S. and 650 sites outside it, and the company expects approval for hormone-sensitive prostate cancer treatment in Q3 FY2026 to increase the number of eligible patients by 75%.
LEQVIO recorded growth of 59% in Q2 FY2026, including 55% in the U.S., and its share within the Medicare Part B segment reached approximately 23.3%, up 3.6 percentage points since the beginning of FY2026. Its share in China also doubled compared with its level before inclusion on the national reimbursement list, while management is targeting global peak sales exceeding $4 to $5 billion.
Scemblix grew 89% in constant currencies in Q2 FY2026, with 93% growth in the U.S. and a 75% share of new prescriptions in the third-line and later settings across key international markets. The drug was approved in 65 countries outside the U.S., and its share of new first-line prescriptions in Germany reached 15%.
Novartis confirmed its FY2026 guidance for low-single-digit sales growth and a low-single-digit decline in core operating income. The company expects H2 FY2026 sales growth in the mid-single digits and core operating income growth in the mid- to high-single digits, with approximately $800 million of U.S. Entresto sales remaining in the comparison base for Q3 FY2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

+The growth portfolio shows clear breadth rather than dependence on a single product; in Q2 FY2026, KISQALI grew 43%, Kesimpta 32%, PLUVICTO 43%, LEQVIO 59%, Scemblix 89%, and Cosentyx 10% in constant currencies.
+Expansion into additional indications and markets provides further growth avenues, as Novartis is targeting peak sales of $10 billion for KISQALI, $8 billion for Cosentyx, and more than $4 to $5 billion for LEQVIO, along with a range of approximately $2 billion for Itvisma.
+Liquidity supports the company's ability to fund research and development and shareholder returns; free cash flow reached $8.9 billion in H1 FY2026, while $5.6 billion remained executable under a share repurchase program of up to $10 billion that is targeted for completion by the end of FY2027.
+The development portfolio includes time-specific catalysts, including the first-line ianalumab readout in immune thrombocytopenia during H2 FY2026, results from LEQVIO cardiovascular outcomes studies in FY2027, and the planned readout for Kesimpta's every-two-month dosing regimen in FY2027.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on NVS stock is Neutral, with an average target of $170 and identical highest and lowest targets at the same level. This target is slightly below the 52-week range high of $170.46 and clearly above its low of $121.57, while Entresto pressures and FY2026 margins remain factors limiting the bullish case presented by the growth portfolio.

HoldAnalyst target: $170(+23.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-25; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove NVS results in Q2 FY2026?

Net sales reached $14.4 billion in Q2 FY2026, growing 1% in constant currencies, while net income was $3.3 billion and earnings per share were $1.71. The total growth drivers grew 36%, led by KISQALI, Kesimpta, PLUVICTO, LEQVIO, and Scemblix. Core operating income was stable at $5.9 billion with a margin of 41.2%, as product growth and productivity offset the significant erosion from Entresto generics.

How important is KISQALI to the Novartis growth story?

KISQALI grew 43% in constant currencies in Q2 FY2026, with a 39% increase in the U.S. and U.S. sales exceeding $1 billion for the first time. Sales outside the U.S. rose 49%, and the drug was approved in 76 countries and reimbursed in 42 countries. Novartis is targeting peak sales of $10 billion, supported by expansion in early and metastatic breast cancer treatment and by 6-year follow-up data.

How are Entresto generics affecting NVS during FY2026?

Significant generic erosion of Entresto led to a 2% decline in H1 FY2026 sales and a 7% decrease in core operating income. The comparison base for Q3 FY2026 still contains approximately $800 million of U.S. Entresto sales, so management expects a notable difference between growth in Q3 and Q4 FY2026. As this effect is lapped, the company expects H2 FY2026 sales growth in the mid-single digits.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−Entresto erosion from generics remains the largest direct financial pressure; H1 FY2026 sales declined 2% and core operating income fell 7%, while the comparison base for Q3 FY2026 still includes approximately $800 million of U.S. Entresto sales.

−FY2026 guidance indicates continued earnings weakness despite a return to sales growth, as the company expects low-single-digit sales growth versus a low-single-digit decline in core operating income. The core operating margin in Q2 FY2026 also fell 70 basis points to 41.2% due to additional Avidity costs, and the H1 margin declined 2.3 percentage points to 39.4%.

−The Q2 FY2026 results included nonrecurring timing factors that added approximately 1 percentage point to sales and about 5 percentage points to core operating income, and these are scheduled to reverse in Q3 FY2026. This was related to inventory changes accompanying the implementation of the SAP system and the deferral of some clinical trial costs, making underlying growth weaker than the reported figures.

−Some brands face increasing competition; management cited additional challenges for Cosentyx in China, while LEQVIO faces new oral lipid-lowering drugs. LEQVIO's ability to reach its sales target of more than $4 to $5 billion depends on sustained demand for infrequently administered, physician-delivered therapy despite oral alternatives.

−The development portfolio carries substantial clinical and regulatory risks; no Phase 2 data are available for remibrutinib in multiple sclerosis, and management was unable to assess its effect on disability progression before the results become available. The base-case scenario for votoplam also still requires a Phase 3 study, and the company does not guarantee that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will accept the biomarker-based del-brax filing.

−The neutral analyst consensus reflects limited confidence in a rerating, while the consensus target of $170 nearly matches the 52-week range high of $170.46. The signal is further weakened because the highest target, lowest target, and average target are all $170, indicating the absence of a diverse range of estimates in the provided data.

What are the key Novartis portfolio catalysts after Q2 FY2026?

The company expects a decision on PLUVICTO in hormone-sensitive prostate cancer during Q3 FY2026, an indication that could increase the number of eligible patients by 75%. It also identified H2 FY2026 for the first-line ianalumab readout in immune thrombocytopenia and FY2027 for results from the 2 LEQVIO cardiovascular outcomes studies and the readout of Kesimpta's every-two-month dosing. For del-zota, the company submitted its filing to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and expects to launch it in H1 FY2027 if approved.

Do cash flows support returns to NVS shareholders?

Novartis generated free cash flow of $5.6 billion in Q2 FY2026 and $8.9 billion in H1 FY2026. During H1, the company paid $9.1 billion in cash dividends and repurchased $2.1 billion of shares. A total of $5.6 billion remains under the share repurchase program of up to $10 billion, with completion targeted by the end of FY2027.

What does the neutral analyst consensus mean for NVS stock?

The analyst consensus rates NVS stock as Neutral, with an average price target of $170. The highest and lowest targets are both $170, so the data do not provide a broad range reflecting meaningful differences among analyst estimates. The target is slightly below the 52-week range high of $170.46, compared with a low of $121.57, placing the success of the growth drivers and the response to Entresto erosion at the center of the valuation.

Company Profile