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Home
Stocks
Novo Nordisk A/S
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 5/9Better than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
74
10.8x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
33
5.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
89
34.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
0.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
64
4.12%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
45
-12.1%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
66
8▲3Top tier
NVO

NVO Novo Nordisk A/S

Novo Nordisk A/S · NYSE
Market Closed
43.07
▼ ⁦-2.14%⁩ (-0.94)
Market Cap$195.4B
Beta0.35
52w Low52w High
35.1264.16
Last Week
⁦-7.91%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.69%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+0.61%⁩
Last Year
⁦-20.68%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$43
Analyst target · 15 analysts
$47
⁦+9%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$40–$47⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$24
⁦-44%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$24–$47⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 15 analysts setting price target
$44.67
⁦+3.7%⁩
Current Price $43.07·Median $47.00
Low
$40.00
High
$47.00
Current price
$43.07
Average target
$44.67
Street summary

Novo Nordisk Price Target Consensus Cut

Bearish tilt

The consensus price target for the stock fell to 44.67 from 47, a decline of 2.33 or 4.96%, while the number of analysts remained at 15; this indicates a decline in overall optimism rather than a change in coverage volume. The current range is between 40 and 47, while the median is 47, reflecting notable dispersion in estimates compared with the consensus. At a current price of 43.07, the consensus remains above the price, but the gap is relatively limited.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-5.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.21
Hold
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
21%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
16%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
3
11
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.46 → 3.21
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-11
    Morgan Stanley
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    HSBC
    Hold
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-27
    Deutsche Bank
    HoldSell
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.77x
    3.94x44.30x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.76x
    3.77x30.13x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    3.9%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.6%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    5.0%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    80.6%
    12.8%90.7%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    34.0%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.60x
    0.60x5.10x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.1%
    0.0%3.9%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    44.4%
    7.4%76.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-06 data

Company Overview

Novo Nordisk A/S is a pharmaceutical company focused on obesity and diabetes treatments, generating its core revenue from its GLP-1 portfolio, which includes Wegovy and Ozempic, alongside treatments for blood disorders and rare conditions and a broader clinical pipeline. In Q1 FY2026, the company was serving more than 45 million people living with obesity or diabetes, including more than 4 million users of obesity treatments, an increase of more than 50% in one year. FY2025 revenue was approximately $309.1 billion, gross profit was $250.3 billion, net income was $102.4 billion, and earnings per share were 23.03, compared with revenue of $290.4 billion and net income of $101.0 billion in FY2024.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $12.13 billion and earnings per share were $0.96, while adjusted sales grew 7%, supported by obesity and diabetes treatments. The data showed a gross margin of 81.8% and an operating margin of 45.3%, but Wegovy sales fell short of market expectations, overshadowing the increase in FY2026 sales and operating profit guidance. This divergence shows that Novo Nordisk's results remain closely tied to the performance of the Wegovy franchise and the quality of growth, rather than merely exceeding quarterly earnings expectations.

Q1 FY2026 details reveal a clear divergence across markets and products: adjusted sales declined 4%, US operations fell 11%, and diabetes GLP-1 sales dropped 11%, while international operations grew 6% and obesity care sales increased 22%. Obesity care sales in international operations rose 44% to DKK 9.2 billion and grew 9% in the United States. Reported group sales reached DKK 96.8 billion, but this figure included exceptional effects, including the reversal of a $4.2 billion provision related to the 340B drug pricing program.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Wegovy pill has achieved a significant commercial launch since its introduction in the United States; prescriptions exceeded 2 million within 16 weeks, the number of users surpassed 1 million, and weekly prescriptions reached 207 thousand in the week ended April 17, 2026. Approximately 80% of its users were new to GLP-1 treatments, while the three largest pharmacy benefit managers added the product to their standard formularies on equal footing with injections.
  • Wegovy High-Dose at 7.2 milligrams supports the company's ability to compete on efficacy; it achieved average weight loss of 20.7% among treatment-adherent patients, and approximately one-third of patients reached weight loss of 25% or more. The product was launched in the United States during April 2026 and listed by the three largest pharmacy benefit managers, while the Wegovy franchise's share of new-to-brand prescriptions reached approximately 65%.
  • The company raised its FY2026 guidance, but it still expects adjusted sales and operating profit to contract between 4% and 12% at constant exchange rates. The improved guidance was based on higher GLP-1 sales estimates, Wegovy pill prescription trends, the approval of Wegovy High-Dose, and plans to launch the pill in selected markets outside the United States.
  • Investments in research and development and commercial initiatives totaled approximately DKK 22 billion in Q1 FY2026. Achievements included six regulatory approvals and more than ten new clinical trials, while CagriSema in REIMAGINE 1 demonstrated an HbA1c reduction of up to 1.8 percentage points and weight loss of up to 13.8% after 40 weeks.
  • Novo Nordisk expanded its opportunities beyond obesity and diabetes through Etavopivat; in the HIBISCUS study, the treatment reduced the annualized rate of vaso-occlusive crises by 27% compared with placebo and delayed the first crisis by approximately four months. A total of 48.7% of patients achieved a hemoglobin response exceeding one gram per deciliter at week 24, compared with 7.2% with placebo.
  • The obesity drug rights deal with Lexicon Pharmaceuticals on August 24, 2026 added a research asset to Novo Nordisk's portfolio for a payment of $10 million. The deal aligns with the development of additional obesity candidates, alongside UBT251, which achieved maximum average weight loss of 19.7% after 24 weeks in a Chinese Phase 2 study.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The buying case rests on a highly profitable financial base; FY2025 revenue increased to $309.1 billion from $290.4 billion in FY2024, and net income rose to $102.4 billion from $101.0 billion. Gross profit also reached $250.3 billion, reflecting a substantial capacity to fund launches and research internally.
  • +Wegovy pill offers a differentiated growth path because it is the only oral peptide product approved for obesity treatment according to the Q1 FY2026 call, and it recorded more than 1 million users within 16 weeks. It also demonstrated weight loss of 17%, and approximately 80% of its users were patients who had not previously received GLP-1 treatment, indicating market expansion rather than merely shifting users from injectable Wegovy.
  • +The Wegovy franchise has multiple formulations serving different segments; the pill provides a daily oral option, while the 7.2 milligram dose delivers average weight loss of 20.7% among treatment-adherent patients. The franchise's share reaching approximately 65% of new-to-brand prescriptions, with both formulations listed by the three largest pharmacy benefit managers, supports the adoption of both products within the United States.
  • +The pipeline provides the company with potential growth sources beyond current products, as CagriSema demonstrated an HbA1c reduction of up to 1.8 percentage points and weight loss of up to 13.8%, while UBT251 achieved weight loss of 19.7% after 24 weeks. Etavopivat also met both of its primary endpoints in HIBISCUS, reducing vaso-occlusive crises by 27% and delivering a clear improvement in hemoglobin response.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $47, identical to both the highest and lowest targets, with the consensus rating classified as Buy; however, the complete uniformity of the targets means the available estimate range offers little diversity of opinion. The $47 target falls within the 52-week range of $35.12 to $64.16 and is approximately 27% below the high of that range, consistent with the stock's revaluation following slower adjusted sales, pricing and margin pressures, disappointing Wegovy sales, and the failure of the ziltivekimab trial. Conversely, high profitability and the adoption of Wegovy pill and Wegovy High-Dose support the positive view, but the absence of a forward earnings multiple in the provided data prevents a reliable earnings-based comparison.

BuyAnalyst target: $47(+9.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Novo Nordisk's growth in FY2026?

Volume growth is being led by the GLP-1 franchise, particularly Wegovy pill and Wegovy High-Dose, despite adjusted sales declining 4% in Q1 FY2026. Wegovy pill surpassed 1 million users and 2 million prescriptions during its first 16 weeks, while weekly prescriptions reached 207 thousand in the week ended April 17, 2026. Obesity care sales also grew 22%, including 44% in international operations and 9% in the United States, before the group's adjusted sales recorded growth of 7% in Q2 FY2026.

Did Wegovy pill achieve a strong commercial start?

Wegovy pill generated approximately 1.3 million prescriptions in Q1 FY2026 and surpassed 2 million prescriptions and more than 1 million users since launch. Approximately 80% of users were new to the GLP-1 class, with some patients switching from competing products and limited switching from injectable Wegovy. Pill sales reached approximately DKK 2.3 billion in the quarter, but nearly $150 million of that was related to distribution channel inventory stocking, so not all revenue represents final patient demand.

Why did investors respond negatively to the Q2 FY2026 results?

Wegovy sales fell short of market expectations, causing the stock to decline more than 6% after the results were announced on August 4, 2026 despite the higher annual guidance. Analysts cited in August 5, 2026 news reports indicated that the strength of the results benefited from rebate adjustments and temporary factors, rather than organic sales growth alone. This response highlights the sensitivity of Novo Nordisk's valuation to Wegovy's performance, even with quarterly revenue of $12.13 billion and earnings per share of $0.96.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Heavy reliance on obesity and diabetes drugs, particularly Wegovy, represents a fundamental risk to the growth trajectory; the stock fell more than 6% following Q2 FY2026 results when Wegovy sales came in below expectations, despite the company raising its annual guidance. Weaker sales of the oral version relative to market estimates also weighed on investors' assessment of growth quality.
  • −Competition and pricing pressures in GLP-1 are intensifying; in Q1 FY2026, adjusted sales declined 4% and US operations contracted 11%, while Ozempic price erosion in the United States ranged between 10% and 15%. In international operations, market share declined over several quarters, while the company cut prices in China following the listing of a competing product, and the number of approved generic products in Canada reached two.
  • −FY2026 guidance implies contraction rather than growth, as management expects adjusted sales and operating profit to decline between 4% and 12% at constant exchange rates. The assumptions include lower realized prices, additional market-access investments, the impact of the most-favored-nation agreement in the United States, and reduced Medicaid coverage of obesity drugs.
  • −Margins face tangible pressure; the adjusted gross margin declined to 80.6% in Q1 FY2026 from 83.5% in the comparative period, and adjusted operating profit fell 6% at constant exchange rates. The company attributed this to lower realized prices, one-time costs, and a negative currency impact, alongside continued spending on research and development and commercial launches.
  • −The research pipeline carries high clinical risk, which materialized on July 31, 2026 when ziltivekimab failed to reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events in an advanced study, causing the stock to fall 9% in a single session. This failure puts pressure on efforts to diversify revenue sources after the company had described the IL-6 inhibitor program as high-potential and high-risk.
  • −The company faces legal exposure related to CagriSema; on July 28, 2026, a US judge ruled that Novo Nordisk must face a lawsuit accusing it of fraudulently presenting the drug's trial results. The case could create financial liability or reputational damage, and the provided information does not include a final outcome for the lawsuit.
What are the main competitive and pricing risks facing NVO?

US operations declined 11% in Q1 FY2026, and the diabetes GLP-1 business fell 11%, while Ozempic price erosion in the United States ranged between 10% and 15%. In China, the addition of a competing product to the reimbursement list led to price reductions, while two generic products are approved in Canada, where rules require a 65% reduction from the list price after the entry of three generic products. FY2026 guidance also assumes stronger competition, lower realized prices, and a negative impact from reduced Medicaid coverage of obesity drugs.

What are Novo Nordisk's most important drugs in development?

CagriSema achieved an HbA1c reduction of up to 1.8 percentage points and weight loss of up to 13.8% after 40 weeks in the REIMAGINE 1 study. UBT251 recorded weight loss of 19.7% after 24 weeks in a Phase 2 obesity study, alongside a maximum HbA1c reduction of 2.16 percentage points in a diabetes study. Etavopivat reduced vaso-occlusive crises by 27% in HIBISCUS and achieved a hemoglobin response in 48.7% of patients, compared with 7.2% with placebo.

What does Novo Nordisk's FY2026 guidance mean for investors?

The company expects adjusted sales to decline between 4% and 12% at constant exchange rates and expects the same range for adjusted operating profit. Raising the range by one percentage point reflects greater confidence in Wegovy pill prescriptions and the approval of Wegovy High-Dose, but it does not change the fact that the guidance still indicates an annual contraction. The assumptions include lower realized prices, intensifying competition, the expiration of the semaglutide patent in some markets, and the reinvestment of targeted savings of DKK 8 billion in growth opportunities.