| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 31 | — | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 3 | -61.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 47 | -111.2% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 12 | — | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 26 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 67 | 19.2% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 77 | 7 | 3 | Top tier |
10-year US Treasury yield 5.00% as of 2026-10-23. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Novavax, Inc. is a vaccine and biotechnology company building its business model around licensing the Matrix-M platform and vaccines based on it to global pharmaceutical companies, while retaining focused research and development capabilities. Revenue is generated from direct vaccine sales, the supply of Matrix-M and products to partners, upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties; in fiscal Q1 2026, licensing, royalties, and other revenue accounted for $97 million of the $140 million total, compared with $33 million from supply sales and $10 million from Nuvaxovid sales. The partnership base includes Sanofi, Pfizer, and Takeda, while four of the world’s top ten pharmaceutical companies were using the technology through licenses or material transfer agreements as of May 6, 2026.
In fiscal Q2 2026, Novavax recorded revenue of $56.7 million and gross profit of $42.5 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 75%, but incurred a net loss of $53.4 million and a loss per share of $0.32. This compares with revenue of $139.5 million, gross profit of $108.8 million, and a net loss of $9.5 million in fiscal Q1 2026, revealing a sharp sequential decline in revenue and a widening loss despite the gross margin remaining high. The latest displayed trailing twelve-month period for 2026 recorded revenue of $413.8 million, gross profit of $325.3 million, and a net loss of $247.7 million.
The revenue mix reflects Novavax’s shift from primary reliance on COVID-19 vaccine sales to a partnership model that is less dependent on direct commercial infrastructure. In fiscal Q1 2026, supply sales increased 139% year over year to $33 million, and licensing, royalties, and other revenue rose 116% to $97 million, while Nuvaxovid sales were only $10 million. On August 6, 2026, the company raised its annual revenue outlook after licensing agreement payments helped offset declining vaccine demand, although the data does not include an updated outlook range.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average target of $18 and a wide range between $11 and $25; the average is approximately 50% above the 52-week range high of $11.97, while the low end of the target lies within the 52-week range of $6.20–$11.97. No positive price-to-earnings multiple is available because Novavax recorded a net loss of $247.7 million in the latest displayed trailing twelve-month period, so the valuation rests more heavily on the value of the Sanofi and Pfizer agreements and the prospects of converting Matrix-M agreements into licenses and royalties. This upside potential is balanced by the wide target range and the dependence of the targeted 2028 profitability path on successful development, approvals, and commercial execution by partners.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Novavax relies on a mix of supply sales, upfront payments, milestones, royalties, and licensing of Matrix-M and related products. In fiscal Q1 2026, licensing, royalties, and other revenue totaled $97 million, supply sales were $33 million, and Nuvaxovid sales were $10 million. The two partner-related categories increased 116% and 139%, respectively, year over year, illustrating the shift in the center of gravity toward partnerships. On August 6, 2026, licensing agreement proceeds helped offset declining vaccine demand and supported an increase in the annual outlook.
The Sanofi agreement generated more than $800 million in revenue through May 6, 2026, and relieved Novavax of the burden of maintaining a full global commercial infrastructure. Potential Sanofi milestones include $75 million upon completion of the technology transfer, $125 million upon initiation of a phase 3 study for the combined influenza and COVID-19 vaccine, and $225 million upon launch in the United States. Pfizer paid $30 million upfront, with the potential for up to $250 million in development and sales milestones for each of two areas. The Pfizer agreement also provides for royalties for up to 20 years from the first launch in each country.
Revenue was $56.7 million and gross profit was $42.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 75%. The company recorded a net loss of $53.4 million and a loss per share of $0.32. By comparison, fiscal Q1 2026 generated revenue of $139.5 million and a net loss of $9.5 million. These figures show that gross profitability remained relatively high, but the revenue decline and widening loss confirm continued quarterly volatility.
Matrix-M is a saponin-based adjuvant designed to enhance the immune response, and Novavax uses it as the basis for non-exclusive licensing agreements. As of May 6, 2026, four of the world’s top ten pharmaceutical companies were working with the technology, and partners were exploring more than 30 unique areas in infectious diseases and oncology. The company signed four new material transfer agreements during the first four months of fiscal 2026, while an existing partner expanded its testing into nine additional areas. The non-exclusive structure allows several partners to test Matrix-M in the same disease area, without guaranteeing that every test will become a commercial license.
Novavax selected its multi-antigen C. difficile candidate as the next internal asset targeted to enter clinical trials as early as 2027. In the preclinical program, the candidate outperformed a two-toxin-only inactivated comparator vaccine, and the company is evaluating mucosal IgA responses, intestinal tissue condition, and other indicators. The candidate is undergoing the repeat-dose toxicity study required for a trial initiation application, with the company intending to hold preliminary discussions with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. On May 6, 2026, management estimated the commercial sales opportunity for this market at between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, assuming the presence of competitors, including Pfizer.
Novavax ended fiscal Q1 2026 with $818 million in cash and accounts receivable. During the quarter, it added $80 million of non-dilutive liquidity, including $30 million upfront from Pfizer and $50 million drawn from a new $330 million credit facility. On May 6, 2026, management estimated that liquidity and expected partner reimbursements would fund operations into 2028 without assuming new upfront payments, milestones, or royalties. However, the adjusted profitability target as early as 2028 also depends on the success of Sanofi programs, obtaining approvals, commercial execution, and reducing adjusted expenses to a range of $150–$200 million.