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Stocks
Nucor Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketTurnaroundF 6/9Better than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
61
20.7x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
52
17.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
45
11.6%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
81
0.9x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
38
0.85%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
97
90.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
62
9▲3Around median
NUE

NUE Nucor Corporation

Nucor Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
259.43
▲ ⁦+1.55%⁩ (+3.97)
Market Cap$58.2B
Beta1.89
52w Low52w High
131.32280.11
Last Week
⁦-1.72%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.60%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+3.57%⁩
Last Year
⁦+83.97%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$259
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$272
⁦+5%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$224–$297⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$105
⁦-60%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.8⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$105–$272⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$267.50
⁦+3.1%⁩
Current Price $259.43·Median $272.00
Low
$224.00
High
$297.00
Current price
$259.43
Average target
$267.50
Street summary

Nucor (NUE) Price Target Analysis

Nucor (NUE) stock has seen an upward revision in its average price target of 5.47% over the past thirty days, rising from 253.63 to 267.5. However, the stock is currently trading at 274.74, a level that exceeds both the mean and median forecasts (272), indicating that the market has already absorbed the recent wave of optimism. Analyst dispersion shows a gap of $73 between the high (297) and low (224), reflecting a divergence in fair value estimation despite the consensus on positive ratings.

As of 2026-08-05
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
82%
High
Target dispersion
28%
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
3
11
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.07 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Citigroup
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.67x
    4.94x39.51x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    17.03x
    3.70x29.59x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.76x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    4.6%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.2%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    126.5%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    15.5%
    7.6%58.9%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    11.6%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.86x
    0.22x3.72x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.9%
    0.2%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    17.6%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Nucor Corporation (NUE) operates in the steel and steel products industry through three operating segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials. Its portfolio serves applications including energy, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, data centers, automotive, defense, shipbuilding, and bridges, and it also has businesses in tubes, towers, structures, scrap processing, and direct reduced iron. The company benefits from the breadth of its geographic network, product diversity, and ability to supply steel internally to downstream operations, shipping between 2 million and 2.5 million tons annually within its system.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Nucor generated net income of $1.2 billion and earnings per share of $5.04, or $4.84 after excluding a $0.20 non-cash benefit related to an increase in the value of its Helion investment, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were approximately $2 billion. The steel mills segment recorded pre-tax earnings of $1.6 billion, up more than 35% from the previous quarter, compared with $353 million for steel products and $146 million for raw materials. Steel mill shipments reached a record 7.1 million tons, while steel products volumes increased 11% compared with Q1 fiscal 2026.

The latest available EDGAR filings show that Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue was $9.5 billion, with gross profit of $1.5 billion, net income of $743 million, and earnings per share of $3.23; representing a gross margin of approximately 15.8% and a net margin of approximately 7.8%. By comparison, fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $32.5 billion, gross profit of $3.9 billion, net income of $1.7 billion, and earnings per share of $7.52. On a trailing twelve-month basis ending in 2026, revenue was $34.2 billion, net income was $2.3 billion, and earnings per share were approximately $10.17.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Nucor raised its 2026 shipment growth outlook to a level closer to the upper end of the 5% to 10% range, after steel mills recorded shipments of 7.1 million tons for the second consecutive quarter and steel products shipments increased 11% compared with Q1 fiscal 2026.
  • Import restrictions support domestic pricing strength; finished steel imports declined 25% year over year, and management estimated sheet steel imports at approximately 4.5 million tons in 2026 compared with 9 million tons in 2024. On August 24, 2026, shares of Nucor and Steel Dynamics rose approximately 4% after trade negotiations between the United States and Canada stalled, reflecting valuation sensitivity to the continuation of tariff protection.
  • Orders are expanding across energy, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and data centers; domestic structural steel consumption increased approximately 15% during 2026, Nucor's automotive shipments increased 6% in Q2 fiscal 2026 compared with the previous quarter, and service center shipments increased 10% year over year in June 2026. Order visibility also extends into 2027 for several steel products, while shipments of thousands of tons per week for the border wall project continue through 2028, according to management.
  • The Brandenburg mill shipped more than 230 thousand tons in Q2 fiscal 2026, with approximately one-third consisting of grades and dimensions that were not previously available from Nucor's plate group. Expansion areas include API pipeline plate, military armor, and ABS grades for shipbuilding, while the group records all-time highs in shipments, backlog, and market share.
  • Growth projects are progressing according to the announced schedule; Nucor began commissioning the pickling line in West Virginia during June 2026 and began commissioning the melt shop and the two galvanizing lines for automotive and construction applications in July 2026, targeting a gradual start to commercial shipments in early 2027 and utilization of approximately 50% by the end of 2027. The Lexington micromill and Kingman melt shop also reached positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization run rates during Q1 fiscal 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Profitability improved across all three operating segments during Q2 fiscal 2026; pre-tax earnings for the steel mills segment exceeded $1.6 billion, steel products earnings increased by more than $75 million from the previous quarter, and raw materials earnings jumped to $146 million from $45 million.
  • +Elevated backlogs and diversified end markets give Nucor a broader growth base than any single market; data centers, energy, infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing offset weakness in residential construction, while steel mills recorded a shipment record of 7.1 million tons.
  • +The company combines expansion funding with capital returns; it generated free cash flow of $829 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 and returned $479 million to shareholders, equivalent to 41% of quarterly net income, with an annual commitment to return at least 40% of net income.
  • +New projects provide a path to increased capacity and earnings after 2026; the West Virginia mill targets the start of commercial shipments in early 2027, while the towers and structures group could reach $150 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization under the target discussed by management, with the possibility of exceeding that figure if order strength continues.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

NUE carries a consensus “Buy” rating with an average price target of $267.5, within a wide range of $224 to $297; the average is approximately 4.5% below the 52-week range high of $280.11, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 6%. The wide target range reflects differing estimates regarding the sustainability of strong demand and trade protection on the one hand, and the risks of West Virginia startup costs, declining raw materials earnings, and the nonrecurrence of some Q2 fiscal 2026 benefits on the other.

BuyAnalyst target: $267.5(+3.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Nucor's results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Nucor generated net income of $1.2 billion and earnings per share of $5.04 in Q2 fiscal 2026, or $4.84 after excluding the non-cash Helion benefit. Pre-tax earnings for the steel mills segment increased by more than 35% to $1.6 billion due to higher selling prices, particularly for sheet and plate, with record shipments of 7.1 million tons. Steel products volumes also increased 11%, and raw materials earnings improved to $146 million due to higher volumes and margins and the performance of direct reduced iron and scrap processing.

What are the main sources of demand for Nucor steel during 2026 and 2027?

Management identified energy, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, data centers, and defense as key demand drivers during 2026 and beyond. Domestic structural steel consumption increased approximately 15% during 2026, and Nucor's automotive shipments increased 6% in Q2 fiscal 2026 compared with the previous quarter. Order visibility also extends into 2027 for several products, and shipments of thousands of tons per week for the border wall project continue through 2028.

When will Nucor's West Virginia mill begin commercial production?

The mill ran its first coil through the pickling line in June 2026 and began commissioning the melt shop and the two galvanizing lines for automotive and construction applications in July 2026. The company targets completing equipment commissioning, inspection, and testing by the end of 2026, followed by a gradual start to commercial shipments in early 2027. Management expects mill utilization to reach approximately 50% by the end of 2027, with volumes and qualifications for higher-quality products expanding during 2028.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Domestic market strength depends partly on trade protection and lower imports; despite a 25% year-over-year decline in finished steel imports, beam imports increased by more than 50 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and imports also absorbed part of the growth in structural steel demand. A widening gap between domestic and import prices or changes in tariff enforcement could intensify competition for volumes and margins.
  • −Pre-operating and startup costs will remain elevated during the construction and commissioning of the West Virginia mill; they reached $120 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management expects them to remain elevated throughout the rest of 2026 and all of 2027. The mill also targets utilization of only approximately 50% by the end of 2027, making the speed of reaching safe and stable production an important factor in the timing of return on investment.
  • −Nucor expects raw materials segment earnings to decline in Q3 fiscal 2026 because of lower realized scrap prices and higher iron ore costs related to the disruption of part of the pellet production capacity in the Middle East. This follows an increase in segment earnings to $146 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, making the sequential comparison more challenging.
  • −Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings included items that will not recur to the same extent; the steel mills segment benefited from $130 million in cash refunds related to previous raw material purchase costs, while earnings per share benefited by $0.20 from a non-cash revaluation of the Helion investment. Management confirmed that it does not expect any additional material benefit from the refunds in Q3 fiscal 2026 or thereafter.
  • −Despite strong orders, management expects a seasonal impact in Q4 fiscal 2026, which includes 89 days compared with 91 days in the previous quarter, and also noted ongoing weakness in residential construction and some interest-rate-sensitive consumer activities. These factors could limit the conversion of backlog strength into consistent sequential shipment growth.
  • −Moves by major holders and insiders provide a cautious trading signal, but it is weaker than the operating indicators; Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Nucor by more than 50%, according to an August 19, 2026 report, while insider activity over three months recorded net sales of $14.6 million through 8 sales and no purchases as of August 14, 2026. Insider sales may have been prearranged, so they are not sufficient on their own to assess the company's outlook.
How do imports and trade policy affect NUE?

Finished steel imports declined 25% year over year, and management estimated sheet steel imports at approximately 4.5 million tons in 2026 compared with 9 million tons in 2024. Nucor believes that the Section 232 program and anti-dumping and countervailing duties have limited the flow of competing steel into the U.S. market. Nevertheless, beam imports increased by more than 50 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing that strong domestic demand can attract imported volumes even in a trade protection environment.

Can Nucor fund its projects and return capital to shareholders?

Nucor ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with approximately $2.7 billion in cash and liquidity of $3.4 billion, while debt represented 23% of total capital. It generated free cash flow of $829 million, its strongest quarter since 2023, despite capital spending of $571 million. It returned $479 million to shareholders during the quarter and expects total capital spending of approximately $2.5 billion in 2026, with approximately 60% allocated to growth projects.