| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 23 | — | 17.4x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 88 | 37.8% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 40 | -12.6% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 57 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 13 | 0.00% | 0.18% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 100 | 104.5% | 1.3% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 62 | 12 | 3 | Around median |
10-year US Treasury yield 5.31% as of 2026-10-05. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Natera is a diagnostic technology company that generates revenue from genetic and molecular testing across three main areas: women's health, oncology, and organ health. Its portfolio includes Panorama for prenatal screening, Fetal Focus and RHD, the Signatera test for detecting molecular residual disease in cancer, and Prospera tests for monitoring organ transplants. Its growth depends on increasing test volumes, improving average revenue per test through insurance coverage and collections, and launching new products that expand its physician and patient base.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, Natera processed approximately 1.044 million tests and generated revenue of about $753 million, up approximately 38% year over year, or about 40% excluding $52 million in revenue settlements. Gross margin was approximately 65% and improved by about 50 basis points from the previous quarter excluding the settlements, with positive cash flow and a narrower operating loss, but the company did not disclose a specific net income figure for the quarter during the call. EDGAR data show continued losses on a broader basis, with a net loss of $208.2 million in fiscal 2025 and $226.3 million during the twelve-month period ended in fiscal 2026.
Oncology was the leading volume driver in Q2 fiscal 2026; the company processed 283 thousand clinical molecular residual disease units, representing approximately 56% year-over-year growth and a sequential increase of 34 thousand units. In women's health, volumes posted high-single-digit growth compared with Q2 fiscal 2025 despite seasonal factors, supported by new accounts and adoption of Fetal Focus and the enhanced version of Panorama. Organ health also continued to expand, while the company expects the final Medicare policy for organ transplant monitoring tests to support Prospera volumes and average revenue beginning August 30, 2026.
The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average target of $319 and a wide range between $245 and $375; the average is below the 52-week range high of $343.18, while the highest target exceeds that high. No positive price-to-earnings multiple is available because of continued losses, including a net loss of $226.3 million during the twelve-month period ended in fiscal 2026, so the valuation depends more heavily on the 38% revenue growth in Q2 fiscal 2026, the margin trajectory, and the conversion of clinical investment into coverage and revenue. The wide target range of $245 to $375 indicates meaningful disagreement among analysts about how much value Signatera approvals and volume growth can generate relative to the risks from losses, research spending, and regulatory execution.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Natera generated revenue of approximately $753 million, up about 38% year over year, and processed nearly 1.044 million tests. Clinical molecular residual disease test volume reached 283 thousand units, representing approximately 56% year-over-year growth and a record sequential increase of 34 thousand units. Women's health also grew in the high single digits compared with Q2 fiscal 2025, supported by new accounts, Fetal Focus, and the enhanced version of Panorama. Improved average revenue also helped raise gross margin to approximately 65%.
Signatera posted strong volume momentum in Q2 fiscal 2026, with 283 thousand clinical units and average revenue of approximately $1,275 per test. In May 2026, the test received FDA approval as a companion diagnostic for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, followed by PMDA approval for colorectal cancer in June 2026. It then received European IVDR certification in July 2026 for more than 20 tumor types, along with a category-one NCCN recommendation in bladder cancer. Management believes expanded MolDX coverage could add approximately $150 to $200 to average revenue on the path toward a long-term target of about $2,000.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management raised the revenue guidance range to between $2.85 billion and $2.91 billion, an increase of $100 million at the midpoint. The range reflects approximately 31% year-over-year growth excluding revenue settlements, while operating expense guidance was maintained. The guidance assumes Signatera average revenue remains near $1,275 during the remainder of fiscal 2026 and does not include a significant impact from MolDX coverage or new guidelines. Management also reaffirmed its priority of achieving positive cash flow for fiscal 2026 despite continued investment in growth.
Natera launched the enhanced version of Panorama in May 2026 to address weak prenatal screening performance when the fetal DNA fraction is low. The test reduced the no-result rate from approximately 2% to 0.5%, or by about 80%. The blinded prospective studies included more than 3,300 patients and more than 240 low-fetal-fraction cases, with detection of 100% of trisomy 21 cases in that group. Management said the launch helped win new accounts and supported high-single-digit growth in women's health in Q2 fiscal 2026.
The FIND study was nearing completion of enrollment in Q3 fiscal 2026 after enrolling approximately 24 thousand average-risk adults as of August 6, 2026. Natera plans to read out the FIND cohort in 2027, and the data did not provide a specific date for a commercial launch or revenue. PROCEED CRC data showed 22.5% sensitivity and 91.5% specificity for advanced adenomas, and 95% sensitivity and 91% specificity for colorectal cancer in a case-control study. The company is spending approximately $100 million on early detection development and research in fiscal 2026 without a current contribution to revenue or margin.
Natera recorded a net loss of $208.2 million in fiscal 2025, while the loss for the twelve-month period ended in fiscal 2026 was approximately $226.3 million. Gross margin was approximately 65% in Q2 fiscal 2026, but newer products such as Fetal Focus, Latitude, and Signatera Genome still carry unoptimized costs. Significant increases in Signatera average revenue also depend on decisions by MolDX, insurers, and reimbursement authorities in Japan, for which the company has no precise timetable. In addition, management does not expect the record sequential increase of 34 thousand units to recur in Q3 fiscal 2026.
