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NetScout Systems, Inc.
NTCT

NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc.

NetScout Systems, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
38.05
▲ ⁦+1.63%⁩ (+0.61)
Market Cap$2.8B
Beta0.70
52w Low52w High
23.8645.28
Last Week
⁦+1.49%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.18%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.31%⁩
Last Year
⁦+59.27%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall95
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 95% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
61
23.1x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
56
5.8%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
82
6.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
92
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
80
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
86
77.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
33
2▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$38
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$43
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$43–$43⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$73
⁦+93%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$43–$73⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$43.00
⁦+13.0%⁩
Current Price $38.05·Median $43.00
Low
$43.00
High
$43.00
Street summary

Target Price Stability Despite Reduced Coverage

The target price remained at 43, unchanged over the last day, 7 days, and 30 days, which represents a calculated increase of approximately 15.7% over the current price of 37.3. However, the number of analysts fell from analysts to a single analyst in the latest two snapshots, narrowing the breadth of the consensus base and making the target reading less representative of the divergence of opinions.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
67%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.33 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-08
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform· $38.00
  • = Reiterate2026-01-05
    RBC Capital
    —· $29.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.06x
    6.87x54.92x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.77x
    5.19x41.53x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.09x
    4.52x36.15x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.5%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.8%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    63.4%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    79.8%
    12.9%79.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    6.7%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

NetScout Systems provides enterprises and service providers with solutions for service assurance, network monitoring, cybersecurity, and DDoS protection. Its solutions rely on the Smart Data platform, which extracts precise packet-level data for use in analytics, automation, and AIOps, and its portfolio includes Omnis Sensor, Omnis Streamer, Omnis KlearSight Sensor, Arbor Cloud, and 5G network monitoring solutions. In Q1 fiscal 2027, service assurance accounted for 67% of revenue and cybersecurity for 33%, while enterprises represented 63% of revenue and service providers 37%.

In Q1 fiscal 2027, ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 12.7% to $210.4 million, including $86 million from products, up 17.8%, and $124.4 million from services, up 9.4%. Service assurance grew 19.7%, compared with just 0.6% growth in cybersecurity, while enterprise revenue rose 19.1% and service provider revenue increased 3.3%. No customer represented more than 10% of quarterly revenue, and the United States contributed 59%, compared with 41% from international markets.

On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin increased 190 basis points to 80.6%, and operating margin improved 660 basis points to 20.8%. Non-GAAP net income was $38.6 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, compared with $24.7 million and $0.34 a year earlier. The company ended the quarter with free cash flow of $44.3 million and cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $668.5 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Q1 fiscal 2027 growth benefited from $10 million to $15 million of government orders arriving earlier than expected; management explained that growth would have been in the mid-single digits after excluding this effect, rather than the reported 12.7%.
  • Service assurance recorded 19.7% growth, supported by government demand and sales of Omnis Sensor and Omnis Streamer, with fewer than ten customers for these solutions as of August 6, 2026. Management stated that these products contributed approximately $15 million in fiscal 2026 and that the Q1 fiscal 2027 pace indicates solid growth, although the business remains small.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • NetScout strengthened the Arbor Cloud platform after acquiring DigiCert's DDoS protection business assets on May 1, 2026, and then doubled mitigation capacity to 33 terabits per second. The new in-house infrastructure is intended to enable faster innovation cycles, greater operating efficiency, and better margin potential from the immediately added recurring revenue.
  • Customer wins in Q1 fiscal 2027 included several deals with government agencies totaling in the low tens of millions of dollars, a multimillion-dollar agreement with an international service provider, and a seven-figure deal with a U.S. financial institution to deploy Omnis KlearSight Sensor across multi-cluster Kubernetes environments.
  • Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 outlook for revenue of $885 million to $915 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.65 to $2.80. It also expects first-half revenue growth in the mid-single digits and Q2 earnings-per-share growth in the high-single digits.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Q1 fiscal 2027 demonstrated clear operating leverage; revenue grew 12.7%, while non-GAAP operating margin improved 660 basis points to 20.8% and diluted earnings per share increased from $0.34 to $0.52.
    • +The Smart Data platform provides a technological moat supported by an intellectual property portfolio that reached 750 patents in June 2026, and the company uses this precise data in monitoring, AIOps, service assurance, cybersecurity, and DDoS protection.
    • +The balance sheet supports investment and growth; the company held $668.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at the end of Q1 fiscal 2027 and generated $44.3 million in free cash flow during the quarter.
    • +Growth opportunities combine Omnis expansion within the existing customer base, the doubling of Arbor Cloud capacity to 33 terabits per second, and specific government, financial, and telecommunications contracts, with a product backlog of approximately $33 million, of which $28 million is fulfillable.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The strength of Q1 fiscal 2027 partly depends on the timing of government orders; $10 million to $15 million of orders shifted into the quarter early, and federal revenue represented a mid-teens percentage of total revenue, compared with the usual mid- to high-single-digit range. Management therefore expects Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue to be approximately flat year over year, limiting the sustainability of the growth rate reported in Q1.
    • −Cybersecurity grew just 0.6% in Q1 fiscal 2027, compared with 19.7% growth in service assurance, despite this business representing 33% of total revenue. Service provider growth was also limited to 3.3%, and management said telecommunications companies' spending remains disciplined.
    • −The contribution from Omnis Sensor and Omnis Streamer associated with artificial intelligence projects remains small, and the number of customers was fewer than ten as of August 6, 2026. Management explained that customers are still experimenting and defining their artificial intelligence strategies, and that the length of the sales cycle for large projects is a factor to monitor.
    • −NetScout increased inventory by approximately $7 million in Q1 fiscal 2027 to address the difficulty and rising cost of obtaining certain equipment due to artificial intelligence data center construction. Although it had not encountered problems as of August 6, 2026, management warned that customers' inability to obtain equipment could alter their purchasing behavior and affect the company's software sales.
    • −The analyst consensus is "Neutral," and the sole price target of $43 does not provide an independent range of scenarios, as the average, high, and low targets are identical. The wide annual range of $24.27 to $45.28 also highlights the valuation's sensitivity to deal timing and the sustainability of growth following the strong quarter.
    • −Insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 25, 2026, included four sales and no purchases, for net sales of $869,503.63. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context did not specify the reasons for these transactions.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $43, below the 52-week range high of $45.28, while the range low is $24.27; the highest and lowest targets are also identical at $43, indicating no useful dispersion among the available analyst estimates. The consensus remains "Neutral" despite the improvement in operating margin and earnings per share in Q1 fiscal 2027, a stance consistent with the need to balance operating growth against the effect of accelerated government orders and slow cybersecurity growth.

    HoldAnalyst target: $43(+13.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving NTCT's growth in Q1 fiscal 2027?

    NetScout's revenue increased 12.7% to $210.4 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, supported by 19.7% growth in service assurance. Government orders worth $10 million to $15 million that arrived earlier than expected contributed to this result, and management said adjusted growth would have been in the mid-single digits. Omnis Sensor and Omnis Streamer also supported demand, alongside government deals totaling in the low tens of millions of dollars.

    What is NetScout's outlook for fiscal 2027?

    On August 6, 2026, management reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of $885 million to $915 million. It expects non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.65 to $2.80, with an effective tax rate of approximately 20% and average diluted shares of 74 million to 75 million. For Q2 fiscal 2027, the company expects revenue to be approximately flat year over year because some orders shifted into Q1 and the comparison period was strong.

    How does NetScout benefit from artificial intelligence?

    The Smart Data platform provides precise packet-level data for use in analytics, automation, AIOps, service assurance, and cybersecurity. Omnis Sensor and Omnis Streamer enable data to be sent to monitoring, security, and AIOps platforms within the partner ecosystem, while nGenius Copilot enables natural-language access to Smart Data. As of August 6, 2026, the number of customers for the new Omnis solutions was fewer than ten, with customers still experimenting with artificial intelligence projects and defining their strategies.

    What did the DigiCert acquisition add to NetScout's business?

    On May 1, 2026, NetScout acquired DigiCert's DDoS protection business assets. The acquired business contributed to services revenue growth during Q1 fiscal 2027, while the company increased Arbor Cloud capacity to 33 terabits per second. Management said bringing the entire back-end infrastructure in-house provides greater control, faster innovation cycles, and better margin potential from the immediately added recurring revenue.

    What are the main risks to NTCT stock following the Q1 fiscal 2027 results?

    Part of the growth was associated with $10 million to $15 million of government orders arriving early, which is why management expects Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue to be approximately flat year over year. Cybersecurity grew just 0.6%, while the new Omnis solutions still have fewer than ten customers and are affected by the sales cycles of large artificial intelligence projects. The company also increased inventory by approximately $7 million to address the limited availability and rising prices of certain equipment, because customers' inability to obtain hardware could affect software purchases.

    How do NetScout's liquidity and cash generation look?

    NetScout ended Q1 fiscal 2027 with $668.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, compared with $705.1 million at the end of fiscal 2026. Free cash flow was $44.3 million during the quarter, while most of the decline in the cash balance reflected the May 1, 2026 acquisition of DigiCert's DDoS assets. The company did not repurchase shares during the quarter, but retained share repurchases among its stated capital allocation priorities.