| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 63 | 29.5x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 69 | 13.8% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 62 | 8.4% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 28 | 5.7x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 47 | 1.55% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 16 | -20.0% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 44 | 7 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
NRG Energy operates in electricity generation and sales, combining its generation fleet with retail energy operations and Smart Home services. The company generates revenue from electricity sales to customers, capacity value in markets such as PJM, and recurring Smart Home service margins, while also seeking to add long-term contracted revenue streams through the Bring Your Own Power model designed for large loads and data centers.
In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue was $7.481 billion, GAAP net income was $506 million, and earnings per share were $2.31, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 6.8%. On an adjusted basis, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $1.2 billion, up $308 million or 34% from the comparable period, while adjusted net income declined to $315 million from $339 million and adjusted earnings per share declined to $1.49 from $1.73.
Performance varied across the company’s segments in Q2 of fiscal year 2026; adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in Texas declined by $131 million due to lower loads and electricity prices, while they increased by $370 million in the East, driven primarily by the acquired LS Power portfolio. Smart Home earnings on the same measure increased by $42 million, and the unit ended the quarter with 2.45 million customers, up 8% year over year, while free cash flow before growth was $1.025 billion, an increase of $111 million.
The average analyst price target is $202.36, compared with a high target of $221 and a low target of $165, while the average is above the 52-week range high of $189.96 and the low target falls within the $110.67–$189.96 range. The consensus recommendation is Buy, but the absence of a reported price-to-earnings multiple and the decline in adjusted earnings per share in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 make the stock’s valuation highly dependent on execution of the Texas project and the conversion of operating earnings growth into net income and earnings per share.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue was $7.481 billion, net income was $506 million, and GAAP earnings per share were $2.31. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased by 34% to $1.2 billion, supported by the LS Power portfolio, higher capacity values in PJM, and Smart Home growth. Conversely, acquisition-related interest, depreciation, and amortization reduced adjusted net income to $315 million and adjusted earnings per share to $1.49.
NRG is working on a 1.2-gigawatt combined-cycle gas plant to serve a one-gigawatt data center load, with the potential to expand the relationship to 2.4 gigawatts. The investment cost is estimated at approximately $3.2 billion, and commercial operations are targeted to begin in late 2029. At full operation, the company expects at least $500 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization and $375 million in annual free cash flow before growth, but the final investment decision remains subject to the required terms and approvals.
The structure is based on a capacity payment for megawatts built and available, with gas and operating costs reimbursed separately. The company expects capacity payments to support 95% of the project’s free cash flow over an initial term of at least 15 years, regardless of the data center’s utilization rate. NRG is also targeting a pre-tax, unlevered internal rate of return between 12% and 15%, with a guarantee from the investment-grade parent company.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased to $1.2 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, but adjusted net income declined to $315 million from $339 million. Management explained that acquisition-related interest, depreciation, and amortization expenses offset the impact of the LS Power portfolio’s contribution. As a result, adjusted earnings per share were $1.49 compared with $1.73 in the comparable period, and also came in below the analyst estimate of $1.72.
The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 guidance ranges, but said results are trending below their midpoints. Pressures include lower loads and electricity prices in Texas, supply costs associated with Winter Storm Fern, and legacy hedges that limited the immediate benefit from strong PJM pricing. Virginia’s return to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative also added an estimated cost of approximately $70 million in fiscal year 2026.
NRG plans primarily to fund the project through operating cash flow and balance sheet capacity, with an expected investment of $721 million in fiscal year 2026 and a total of $3.2 billion through 2029. This approach results in less liability management and slower net debt reduction, and could delay reaching the three-times net leverage target from 2028 to 2029. Nevertheless, the company maintained its commitment to repurchase at least $1 billion of shares annually, and expects ordinary dividends of $407 million for fiscal year 2026.
