| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 59 | — | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 6 | -25.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 43 | -6.5% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 30 | 8.3x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 48 | 6.33% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 51 | -21.2% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 88 | 7 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) operates under a non-operated ownership model for oil and gas assets; it acquires interests in properties and wells and funds development, while operating partners carry out operations. The company generates revenue from the sale of its share of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production, and diversifies its investments across Permian, Williston, Appalachia, Uinta, and Duvernay to reduce the impact of disruptions in any single basin. It also owns significant infrastructure in Uinta, Permian, Utica, and Duvernay, and builds long-term inventory through acquisitions and the purchase of drilling locations.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue reached $745.2 million and gross profit was $618.1 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 83%, while net income was $236.6 million and earnings per share were $2.19. Total production increased 9% year over year, and natural gas volumes reached a record level after growing 35% annually and 5% compared with the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 17% sequentially, while free cash flow growth exceeded 400% to reach $159 million.
Budgeted capital expenditure totaled $196 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, split between $151 million for organic drilling and completion and $45 million for ground game and asset acquisition activity. Permian accounted for 37% of spending, Williston for 33%, Appalachia and Uinta for 14% each, and Duvernay for 2%. By contrast, the trailing twelve-month period for 2026 shows revenue of $1.9 billion and gross profit of $1.4 billion, but records a net loss of $486 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $4.50, reflecting a significant divergence between the latest quarter's profitability and the extended-period result.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $29.67, within a wide range of $25 to $36, compared with a historical 52-week trading range of $17.18 to $31.17; accordingly, the average target is below the top of the annual range, while the highest target exceeds that peak. The consensus rating is Buy, but the absence of a positive price-to-earnings ratio and the trailing loss of $486 million make the valuation more dependent on cash flow, asset value, and debt rather than solely on current accounting earnings.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
NOG acquires interests in oil and gas assets and wells and funds its share of drilling and completion, while operating partners manage day-to-day operations. Revenue comes from the company's share of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids sales across Permian, Williston, Appalachia, Uinta, and Duvernay. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, this model generated revenue of $745.2 million and gross profit of $618.1 million. Total production also increased 9% annually, with natural gas volumes growing 35%.
Net income was $236.6 million and earnings per share were $2.19 in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, compared with a net loss of $522.8 million in the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 17% sequentially, and free cash flow reached $159 million after growing more than 400%. The company spent $196 million, including $151 million on drilling and completion and $45 million on ground game and asset acquisitions. Production expenses per barrel of oil equivalent were 4% lower than in the corresponding period of the previous year.
NOG closed the Duvernay joint development transaction in early June 2026, expanding its investable market into Canada. Management describes the Parallax asset as self-funded, with 20 years of development inventory and an average breakeven below $50. The acquisition cost was less than $600,000 per location, and the asset began contributing 2% of quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 spending. Management also believes that Duvernay's lower operating expenses may help offset rising costs from older wells in other basins.
The board declared a dividend of $0.45 per share for quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, equivalent to approximately $48 million paid on July 31, 2026. Free cash flow during the same quarter was $159 million, so it covered the dividends more than three times. Management expects free cash flow of between $375 million and $500 million during fiscal year 2026 based on the price curve available on August 7, 2026. However, achieving this forecast remains tied to commodity prices, production, and capital expenditure.
Weak Waha economics led to significant production curtailments in Permian during quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 before conditions improved and volumes returned to service. NOG's non-operated model means that drilling, timing, and curtailment decisions depend partly on operating partners, and logistical issues also delayed some Permian activity. Third-party gathering and processing systems may also hinder gas takeaway, making infrastructure ownership in Uinta, Utica, and Duvernay an important risk-mitigation factor. Conversely, management said on August 7, 2026, that three net wells had been brought online to support quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026.
The analyst consensus is Buy, and the average price target is $29.67, with a low target of $25 and a high target of $36. The average is below the top of the 52-week range of $31.17, while the highest target exceeds it, indicating differing estimates of the potential for asset revaluation. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because the trailing twelve-month period for 2026 recorded a net loss of $486 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $4.50. Therefore, the valuation assessment depends heavily on free cash flow, asset value, leverage, and management's ability to realize value through repurchases, asset sales, or debt reduction.
