EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
NNN REIT, Inc.
NNN

NNN NNN REIT, Inc.

NNN REIT, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
43.87
▲ ⁦+0.05%⁩ (+0.02)
Market Cap$8.3B
Beta0.78
52w Low52w High
38.9050.00
Last Week
⁦-3.03%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.66%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-2.64%⁩
Last Year
⁦+3.44%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall44
Weak — below market medianHigh FlyerF 5/9DistressBetter than 44% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
35
21.5x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
39
6.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
57
6.4%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
42
5.7x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
50
5.38%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
61
12.4%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
47
4▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$44
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$48
⁦+9%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$47–$50⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-4.02
⁦-109%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-4.02–$48⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$48.29
⁦+10.1%⁩
Current Price $43.87·Median $48.00
Low
$47.00
High
$50.00
Current price
$43.87
Average target
$48.29
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus Amid Divergent Ratings

The consensus price target rose from 47.88 to 48.29 over the last 7 and 30 days, an increase of $0.41 or 0.86%, while the number of analysts remained at five. The current consensus indicates an upside of approximately 10.1% compared with the current price of $43.87. The target range is between $47 and $50, reflecting relatively limited dispersion around the central valuation of $48.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.76
Hold
Analyst coverage
17
Buy conviction
12%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
7%
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
2
12
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.88 → 2.76
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    B. Riley
    Neutral
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-20
    Morgan Stanley
    OverweightNeutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.50x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    21.24x
    5.89x47.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.40x
    3.68x29.40x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    2.9%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.5%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -2.9%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    39.8%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    6.4%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.74x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    5.4%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    115.7%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.15
    -0.883.10
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

NNN REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on single-tenant, freestanding properties leased under long-term triple-net leases, making rent the primary source of its cash flows. In fiscal Q2 2026, the portfolio included approximately 3,770 properties, and new investments were concentrated in automotive services, discount retail, and early childhood education. The growth strategy relies on direct sale-leaseback transactions with tenants that have existing relationships with the company, alongside selling vacant and non-core properties and reinvesting the proceeds in higher-conviction assets.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $244.3 million, net income was $97.9 million, and earnings per share were $0.52, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 40.1%. AFFO per share was $0.90, up 5.9% year over year, while Core FFO per share increased 6.0% to $0.89. The NOI margin was 96.6%, up 70 basis points from the previous quarter, with occupancy rising to 99.1% and uncollected rent declining to less than 5 basis points.

Annual base rent reached $959 million, an increase of more than 7% year over year, driven by acquisition volume. NNN REIT invested slightly more than $290 million in 89 new properties during fiscal Q2 2026, at an initial cash capitalization rate of 7.3% and an average lease term of approximately 18 years. In contrast, it sold 26 properties, including 19 vacant properties, generating approximately $37 million for reinvestment.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 5, 2026, NNN REIT raised its fiscal 2026 AFFO per share guidance range to $3.55–$3.59, the second increase during the year, with the midpoint implying annual growth of approximately 3.8% compared with 2.7% in fiscal 2025.
  • The company raised the midpoint of its fiscal 2026 acquisition guidance from $600 million to $750 million after investing $430 million in 130 properties during the first half, at an initial capitalization rate of 7.4% and an average lease term exceeding 18 years.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Portfolio performance improved as occupancy rose 50 basis points from the previous quarter and 110 basis points year over year to 99.1%, while bad debt was only approximately 2 basis points of quarterly annual base rent, prompting the company to lower its annual credit-loss guidance from 60 to 40 basis points.
  • Liquidity of $1.4 billion and an average debt maturity of 10.1 years support the company’s ability to fund its acquisition pipeline, while free cash flow after dividends was approximately $56 million in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • The company raised its quarterly dividend by 3.3% to $0.62 per share on July 15, 2026, making fiscal 2026 the 37th consecutive year of dividend increases, with a payout ratio equal to 69% of AFFO.
  • Opportunities in automotive services, convenience stores, and early childhood education support the transaction pipeline. Mavis Tire also announced an agreement to acquire Pep Boys for approximately $700 million, and Big Brand Tire announced an agreement to acquire Bell Tire, creating a network of more than 350 stores and annual revenue exceeding $1.5 billion.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +The portfolio provides a high degree of income stability, with occupancy at 99.1%, uncollected rent below 5 basis points, and no material near-term concerns on the credit watchlist in fiscal Q2 2026.
    • +Growth of 5.9% in AFFO per share and 6.0% in Core FFO per share shows that acquisitions and improved occupancy translated into actual per-share growth, rather than merely expanding the asset base.
    • +The weighted average debt maturity of 10.1 years, the fixing of $400 million of the term loan at an all-in cost of 4.1%, and variable-rate debt representing only 2.5% of total debt provide the company with relative protection from financing volatility.
    • +The record of raising dividends for 37 consecutive years, together with an AFFO payout ratio of 69% and free cash flow after dividends of $56 million during the quarter, provides numerical evidence of the income model’s sustainability through the period ended June 30, 2026.
    • +Capital recycling could add value; the company sold income-producing assets at capitalization rates approximately 170 basis points below the acquisition capitalization rate, then raised the midpoint of its fiscal 2026 disposition guidance to $140 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The REIT remains exposed to retail tenant defaults and store closures; the company sold 19 vacant properties during the quarter and 35 vacant properties during the first half of fiscal 2026, and it is also reducing its exposure to movie theaters, which have not fully recovered to pre-COVID pandemic levels.
    • −Intensifying competition among public real estate investment trusts could pressure acquisition yields; the initial capitalization rate was 7.3% during the quarter, and management expects additional modest capitalization-rate compression during the second half of fiscal 2026 to win certain transactions.
    • −Achieving the annual AFFO range of $3.55–$3.59 depends on the timing and volume of acquisitions and on credit losses remaining under control; management identified higher bad debt or delayed transaction closings as two factors that could push results toward the low end of the range.
    • −The company faces a specific refinancing risk because $350 million of debt matures in December 2026, while management estimated the cost of issuing 10-year debt at approximately 5.0%–5.6%, above the fixed rate of 4.1% on most of the current term loan.
    • −Equity issuance could dilute the effect of asset growth on a per-share basis; the company sold approximately 6 million common shares on a forward basis during the quarter and had approximately $272 million of unsettled forward equity proceeds as of June 30, 2026.
    • −The neutral analyst consensus, with an average target of $47.88 within a narrow range of $45 to $50, indicates limited room for rerating compared with the upper end of the 52-week range of $50, particularly given management’s reference to a multiple of approximately 13.8 times.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $47.88, with a range of $45 to $50 and a neutral consensus; the highest target matches the peak of the 52-week range at $50, while its low is $38.90. A traditional earnings multiple is not available in the provided data, but management referred to a multiple of approximately 13.8 times during the August 5, 2026 call. This valuation balances expected AFFO growth of 3.8% in fiscal 2026 and the dividend track record on one hand, against capitalization-rate compression risks and the refinancing of the December 2026 maturity on the other.

    HoldAnalyst target: $47.88(+9.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving NNN REIT’s growth in fiscal 2026?

    The company relies on acquiring freestanding properties under long-term triple-net leases, particularly through direct sale-leaseback transactions. It invested $430 million in 130 properties during the first half of fiscal 2026, with an average lease term exceeding 18 years and an initial capitalization rate of 7.4%. Following the strength of the transaction pipeline, it raised the midpoint of its annual acquisition guidance from $600 million to $750 million. This was reflected in annual base rent growth of more than 7% to $959 million.

    How did NNN REIT perform in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue was $244.3 million, net income was $97.9 million, and earnings per share were $0.52. AFFO per share was $0.90, representing annual growth of 5.9%, while Core FFO per share was $0.89, representing growth of 6.0%. The NOI margin increased to 96.6%, up 70 basis points from the previous quarter. Occupancy also reached 99.1%, and bad debt was only approximately 2 basis points of quarterly annual base rent.

    Are NNN REIT’s dividends sustainable based on fiscal 2026 figures?

    On July 15, 2026, the company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share, an increase of 3.3% from the previous rate. Fiscal 2026 represents the 37th consecutive year in which NNN REIT has raised its annual dividend. The AFFO payout ratio was approximately 69%, and the REIT generated approximately $56 million in free cash flow after dividends in fiscal Q2 2026. These figures provide operating headroom, but its sustainability remains tied to occupancy, tenant credit quality, and financing costs.

    What are the main risks to NNN REIT’s portfolio?

    The company deals with retail tenants that may close locations or decide not to renew leases, and it therefore sold 19 vacant properties in fiscal Q2 2026. It also continues to reduce its exposure to movie theaters, as management said that the performance of these assets had not fully returned to pre-COVID pandemic levels. In acquisitions, management expects modest capitalization-rate compression during the second half of fiscal 2026 due to transaction mix and competition. Nevertheless, the credit watchlist on August 5, 2026 did not include any material tenant posing a near-term concern.

    What do NNN REIT’s leverage and debt maturities look like?

    Net debt to EBITDA was approximately 5.7 times as of June 30, 2026, and declines on a pro forma basis to 5.2 times after accounting for unsettled forward equity. The average debt maturity reached 10.1 years, there were no encumbered assets, and variable-rate debt represented only 2.5% of total debt. The interest rate on $400 million of a $500 million term loan was fixed at an all-in cost of 4.1%. However, a $350 million maturity is due in December 2026, and management estimated the cost of new 10-year debt at approximately 5.0%–5.6%.

    What is NNN REIT’s outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

    The company raised its AFFO per share range to $3.55–$3.59 on August 5, 2026, the second increase during the year. The midpoint implies annual growth of approximately 3.8%, compared with growth of 2.7% in fiscal 2025. It also raised the midpoint of its acquisition guidance to $750 million and the midpoint of its disposition guidance to $140 million, while lowering its annual bad-debt estimate from 60 to 40 basis points. Actual results remain sensitive to acquisition timing, capital-markets activity, and credit losses.