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Stocks
NMI Holdings, Inc.
NMIH

NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc.

NMI Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
43.89
▼ ⁦-0.68%⁩ (-0.30)
Market Cap$3.4B
Beta0.53
52w Low52w High
34.8446.27
Last Week
⁦-1.53%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.70%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+20.98%⁩
Last Year
⁦+11.51%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall91
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 91% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
78
8.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
43
7.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
84
——Top tier
▸
Safety
81
——Top tier
▸
Capital Return
61
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
82
12.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
39
5▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$44
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$50
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$46–$53⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$90
⁦+105%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$50–$90⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$49.50
⁦+12.8%⁩
Current Price $43.89·Median $49.50
Low
$46.00
High
$53.00
Current price
$43.89
Average target
$49.50
Street summary

Target price unchanged as coverage declines

The consensus target price has not changed over the last day, seven days, or 30 days, remaining at 49.5, which is above the current price of 44.19. However, the number of analysts counted in the consensus fell from three to one, reducing the breadth of the sample and making the consensus reading less representative of the variation in opinions. The current range is between 46 and 53, with an average/median target of 49.5.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦6 (-2)⁩
Buy conviction
67%
High
Target dispersion
16%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
2
2
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-22
    UBS
    —· $46.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-22
    RBC Capital
    Outperform· $46.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.59x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.38x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.5%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    8.0%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

NMI Holdings, Inc., commercially known as National MI, operates in private mortgage insurance, providing lenders with protection against losses and helping borrowers purchase homes with lower down payments. The company generates most of its revenue from premiums on in-force insurance policies, along with income from its investment portfolio, and has served approximately 2.2 million borrowers and more than 1,700 lenders. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company wrote $16 billion of new insurance, primary insurance in force reached a record $227.1 billion, and total insurance written since its founding exceeded $500 billion.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, National MI reported record revenue of $187.9 million, up 8.1% from Q2 fiscal 2025 and 2.4% from Q1 fiscal 2026. Revenue consisted primarily of record net premiums earned of $157.5 million and investment income of $30.3 million, representing approximately 84% and 16% of total revenue, respectively. According to EDGAR data, net income was $105.8 million and earnings per share were $1.38, while the company reported record adjusted net income of $106 million and a return on equity of 15.9%.

The data does not present gross profit or gross margin, so operating discipline is assessed here through the expense ratio and credit performance. The expense ratio declined to 19.4% in Q2 fiscal 2026 from 19.8% in the previous quarter, while underwriting and operating expenses remained nearly stable at $30.5 million. Claims expenses were $13.1 million, with 8,020 defaults and a default rate of 1.16% as of June 30, 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Net premiums earned rose to a record $157.5 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with $149.1 million in Q2 fiscal 2025, supported by growth in the primary insurance-in-force portfolio to $227.1 billion.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

New insurance written totaled $16 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026, while management said insurance in force grew 49% over the previous four years, compared with 13% for the rest of the industry, reflecting the continued growth driver resulting from the company's higher share of new production relative to its share of insurance in force.
  • The base premium yield remained at 34 basis points, while the net yield was stable at 28 basis points compared with Q1 fiscal 2026; management attributed this stability to the size of the in-force portfolio and the 81.4% persistency rate.
  • Credit quality supported profitability, as the number of defaults declined to 8,020 as of June 30, 2026, from 8,044 as of March 31, 2026, and claims expenses decreased to $13.1 million from $20.7 million in the previous quarter.
  • Investment income increased to $30.3 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with $24.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2025, adding a tangible source of revenue growth alongside premiums.
  • The company repurchased 827 thousand shares for $31.4 million during Q2 fiscal 2026, and total shares retired since the program began in 2022 reached approximately 13.6 million shares for $408 million, with $167 million of repurchase capacity remaining.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company combines portfolio growth with record profitability; trailing twelve-month revenue increased to $730.8 million and net income to $395.3 million, while Q2 fiscal 2026 net income was approximately $105.8 million.
    • +The capital base appears strong based on the figures reported as of June 30, 2026, as the company had $3.7 billion of available assets under PMIERs requirements against $2.1 billion of risk-based required assets, resulting in a surplus of $1.6 billion.
    • +The current portfolio quality supports the company's ability to generate returns through the cycle; the default rate was only 1.16% at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, and management observed no signs of early underwriting stress in fiscal 2026 production.
    • +Operating discipline provided positive earnings leverage, as underwriting and operating expenses remained at approximately $30.5 million despite revenue growth, reducing the expense ratio to 19.4% and increasing adjusted earnings per share by 14% year over year to $1.38.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Performance remains tied to labor market strength and home prices; management observed housing-price pressure and inventory accumulation in Florida and Texas and parts of the Sun Belt, Mountain West, and West Coast, which could weaken default cure rates and increase claims if economic conditions deteriorate.
    • −Management expected the number of defaults to increase after June 30, 2026, due to portfolio seasoning and a shift from supportive seasonal factors in the first half to headwinds in Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026, after claims expenses reached $13.1 million and the default rate was 1.16% in Q2.
    • −The 12-month policy persistency rate declined to 81.4% in Q2 fiscal 2026 from 82.2% in the previous quarter, and management explained that interest-rate movements and increased refinancing could pressure persistency and yield, particularly because refinancing borrowers tend to have higher credit quality and lower premiums.
    • −The company faces greater competitive pressure in large, transaction-oriented business, despite management describing the private mortgage insurance market overall as balanced; intensifying competition could force a trade-off among new production volume, pricing, and return on capital.
    • −The valuation carries elevated expectations risk because the average analyst target of $49.5 exceeds the upper end of the 52-week range of $46.74, while the target range extends from $46 to $53; achieving this outlook requires continued premium growth, credit quality, and expense discipline.
    • −Net insider selling totaled $1.1 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 11, 2026, with two sales and no purchases; this is a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged and do not by themselves establish a deterioration in the operating outlook.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus rates NMIH shares a Buy, with an average target of $49.5 and a target range of $46 to $53. The average target is approximately 5.9% above the top of the 52-week range of $46.74, while the lowest target falls within the 52-week range of $34.84 to $46.74, reflecting consensus optimism with relatively limited variation in estimates. The data does not include a usable price-to-earnings ratio, so the stock's valuation in these data is based on analyst targets and the company's ability to maintain revenue growth, credit quality, and a return on equity of 15.9%.

    BuyAnalyst target: $49.5(+12.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does National MI generate its revenue?

    National MI generates its revenue primarily from premiums on private mortgage insurance that it provides to lenders to support loans with low down payments. In Q2 fiscal 2026, net premiums earned were $157.5 million out of total revenue of $187.9 million. The investment portfolio added income of $30.3 million during the same period. Primary insurance in force was $227.1 billion as of June 30, 2026, across a base of more than 1,700 lenders.

    What were NMIH's key results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    The company reported record revenue of $187.9 million, up 8.1% from Q2 fiscal 2025. Net income according to EDGAR was approximately $105.8 million, while reported adjusted net income was $106 million and earnings per share were $1.38. Return on equity was 15.9%, while the expense ratio declined to 19.4%. The company also wrote $16 billion of new insurance during the quarter.

    Is the credit quality of National MI's portfolio stable?

    The number of defaults was 8,020 as of June 30, 2026, down slightly from 8,044 as of March 31, 2026, and the default rate was stable at 1.16% at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026. Claims expenses decreased to $13.1 million from $20.7 million in the previous quarter. Management said it had not seen signs of early defaults or underwriting stress in fiscal 2026 production. However, it expected the number of defaults to increase in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to seasonal factors and portfolio seasoning.

    What is the significance of the share repurchase program for NMIH shareholders?

    The company repurchased 827 thousand shares for $31.4 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, at an average cost of $37.99 per share. Since the program began in 2022, it has spent $408 million to retire 13.6 million shares, representing 16% of total shares outstanding according to management. The average cost of these cumulative purchases was $29.95 per share. As of June 30, 2026, $167 million of repurchase capacity remained under the existing program.

    What are the main risks facing NMIH shares?

    The company's results depend on employment, home prices, and borrowers' ability to cure defaults, and management cited pressure in Florida and Texas and parts of the Sun Belt, Mountain West, and West Coast. The policy persistency rate declined to 81.4% in Q2 fiscal 2026 from 82.2% in the previous quarter, and refinancing could reduce premiums and yield. Management also expected defaults to increase seasonally in Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026. In addition, there is competitive pressure in large, transaction-oriented business, although the broader market remains balanced according to management's assessment.

    What is National MI's capital liquidity position?

    Available assets under PMIERs requirements were approximately $3.7 billion as of June 30, 2026, compared with risk-based requirements of $2.1 billion. This resulted in a surplus of available assets of $1.6 billion. Shareholders' equity was $2.7 billion, with a book value of $35.89 per share. Book value excluding the impact of unrealized investment gains and losses was $36.88 per share, up 15% from Q2 fiscal 2025.