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Stocks
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall62
Balanced — near the middle of the marketSuper StockF 4/9DistressBetter than 62% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
69
5.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
62
12.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
70
6.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
23
15.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
70
13.01%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
54
8.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
46
7▲3Around median
NLY

NLY Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
21.90
▼ ⁦-0.45%⁩ (-0.10)
Market Cap$16.6B
Beta1.24
52w Low52w High
20.0024.52
Last Week
⁦-3.57%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.95%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.81%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.34%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$22
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$24
⁦+7%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$23–$24⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$23.50
⁦+7.3%⁩
Current Price $21.90·Median $23.50
Low
$23.00
High
$24.00
Current price
$21.90
Average target
$23.50
Street summary

Stable Targets Amid Broader Analyst Coverage

The average price target has remained unchanged at 23.5 over the past day, 7 days, or 30 days, despite the number of analysts covered increasing from one analyst to 3 analysts. The current range is between 23 and 24, representing a limited difference of just 1 from the average, while the current price is 21.9; this mathematically indicates that the targets remain above the price without constituting a new upward revision.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦13 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
69%
High
Target dispersion
5%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
4
5
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-02
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-04-24
    UBS
    Neutral· $23.00
  • = Reiterate2026-02-05
    RBC Capital
    Outperform· $25.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    5.30x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.34x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    17.21x
    3.68x29.40x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -1.9%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    12.5%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    297.1%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    99.3%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    6.5%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    14.96x
    1.55x12.39x
    High debt
  • Dividend Yield
    13.0%
    0.6%15.6%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    69.7%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    -0.52
    -0.883.10
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Annaly Capital Management operates through a specialized housing finance platform and allocates capital across three interconnected strategies: Agency mortgage-backed securities, Residential Credit, and mortgage servicing rights, or MSR. Returns come from asset income and financing spreads, from creating proprietary investments by purchasing loans and securitizing them through the OBX platform, and from cash flows generated by servicing rights; as of June 30, 2026, the market value of the Agency portfolio was approximately $95 billion, compared with $10.4 billion for Residential Credit and $4.1 billion for the MSR portfolio, representing 57%, 22%, and 21% of capital, respectively.

In Q2 FY2026, Annaly recorded revenue of $2.2 billion, gross profit of $2.2 billion, and net income of $822.7 million, equivalent to earnings per share of $1.06 and a net margin of approximately 37.4%. These results improved compared with Q1 FY2026, when revenue was $1.6 billion, net income was $282.7 million, and earnings per share were $0.33; 2026 trailing twelve-month data also reached revenue of $7.3 billion, net income of $3.0 billion, and earnings per share of $4.13.

Based on management's non-GAAP measures, the company generated earnings available for distribution of $0.79 per share in Q2 FY2026, exceeding the quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share for the ninth consecutive quarter. Book value per share rose 1.7% to $20.15, and the economic return was 5.5% during the quarter and 6.9% during the first half of FY2026, while the net interest margin increased 5 basis points to 1.76% and the net interest spread improved 8 basis points to 1.5%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The increase in the Agency portfolio yield strengthened earnings in Q2 FY2026; the weighted average coupon rose 11 basis points to 5.11%, and the average repurchase cost declined 6 basis points to 3.84%, helping earnings available for distribution rise to $0.79 per share.
  • Annaly expanded its Agency portfolio by approximately $3 billion to $95 billion during Q2 FY2026, benefiting from lower interest-rate volatility and strong demand for Agency mortgage-backed securities, while management indicated levered returns in the 14% to 16% range for this strategy.
  • Onslow Bay achieved record volume in Q2 FY2026, with $6.7 billion of locked loans, $5.1 billion of fundings, and $7.1 billion of loan purchases. During the quarter, the OBX platform closed 13 deals with an original balance of $6.8 billion, generating approximately $780 million of proprietary investments, while total first-half transactions reached 25 deals valued at $14.2 billion.
  • Residential asset quality supported credit growth capacity; the locked loan pipeline had an average FICO score of 765 and a loan-to-value ratio of 67%. Non-QM and DSCR loans also represented approximately 70% of the $14.2 billion in OBX deals during the first half of FY2026, and the platform completed its first recently originated $1 billion Non-QM deal, followed by a similar deal approximately two weeks later.
  • The MSR portfolio provides a differentiated source of cash flows, with the related loans carrying an average interest rate of 3.3%, serious delinquencies at only approximately 50 basis points, and prepayment speed of 5.2 CPR in Q2 FY2026, remaining below initial model assumptions. During the quarter, the company committed to purchasing servicing rights with a market value of approximately $200 million, while shifting the portfolio toward higher loan balances to improve the economics of the fixed servicing cost per loan.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The diversified model demonstrated its ability to support both earnings and book value in Q2 FY2026, as the company generated an economic return of 5.5% and increased book value per share to $20.15, while reducing economic leverage to 5.6 times from 5.7 times.
  • +Dividend coverage is supported by earnings available for distribution of $0.79 per share versus a quarterly dividend of $0.75, marking the ninth consecutive quarter in which earnings available for distribution exceeded the dividend. The company also increased the quarterly dividend to $0.75 after the board of directors assessed the portfolio's ability to support it.
  • +Annaly has difficult-to-replicate capabilities in Residential Credit, including relationships with more than 350 loan originators and participation by more than 250 investors in the OBX program since 2018. This infrastructure enabled the execution of 25 securitizations valued at $14.2 billion during the first half of FY2026, with Non-QM deals averaging more than $900 million during the period.
  • +High liquidity gives the company flexibility for growth and risk management; as of June 30, 2026, it held $8 billion of unencumbered assets and $9.6 billion of total assets available for financing, an increase of approximately $580 million from the previous quarter. Warehouse financing capacity was $8.3 billion, including $2.8 billion committed, with utilization rates of 61% for Residential Credit and 50% for MSR.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $23.5 and a narrow range between $23 and $24. The average target is 17.5% above the low end of the 52-week range of $20, but approximately 4.2% below the high end of $24.52, placing the expected valuation within the annual range rather than indicating a clear breakout above it. This consensus should be weighed against book value's sensitivity to interest rates and the narrow dividend coverage of $0.04 per share in Q2 FY2026.

BuyAnalyst target: $23.5(+7.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How does Annaly Capital Management generate its revenue and profits?

Annaly allocates its capital among Agency, Residential Credit, and MSR, with these strategies accounting for 57%, 22%, and 21%, respectively, as of June 30, 2026. Earnings come from returns on securities and loans after financing costs, from proprietary investments created by the OBX platform through loan purchases and securitizations, and from cash flows generated by mortgage servicing rights. In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $2.2 billion and net income was $822.7 million, while the net interest margin reached 1.76%.

Does NLY stock cover its quarterly dividend with earnings?

Earnings available for distribution were $0.79 per share in Q2 FY2026, compared with a quarterly dividend of $0.75, representing coverage of $0.04. This was the ninth consecutive quarter in which earnings available for distribution exceeded the dividend. However, management said during the July 22, 2026 call that in some quarters earnings may equal the dividend or fall slightly below it, and that sustainability should be assessed over a longer time horizon.

How important is the OBX platform to Annaly's business?

OBX allows Annaly to transform loans aggregated through Onslow Bay into private securities, a portion of which the company retains as higher-yielding investments. In Q2 FY2026, the platform closed 13 deals with an original balance of $6.8 billion and created approximately $780 million of proprietary investments. During the first half of FY2026, the total reached 25 deals valued at $14.2 billion, approximately 70% of which involved Non-QM and DSCR, and the platform also completed two consecutive deals valued at $1 billion each.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Annaly's model remains sensitive to the path of interest rates and volatility; during the July 22, 2026 call, management said market pricing had shifted from expecting two 25-basis-point cuts to expecting at least one increase during 2026, amid elevated inflation, energy pressures, and tariffs. After quarter-end, management reported that book value had declined by slightly more than 1% through July 17, 2026, and that the economic return had decreased by approximately 0.5%.
  • −The dividend coverage margin is not wide, as earnings available for distribution were $0.79 per share versus a dividend of $0.75 in Q2 FY2026, a difference of only $0.04. Management explained that in some quarters earnings may equal the dividend or fall slightly below it, making the sustainability of coverage dependent on asset yields and financing costs remaining within expected levels.
  • −The Residential Credit business faces competition from existing market participants and new entrants; despite record purchase volume, locked loans of $6.7 billion declined by approximately 9% to 10% from the previous quarter because Annaly maintained target returns in the mid-teens. Management also estimated returns on most third-party-issued securities at only approximately 11% to 12%, compared with the higher returns it targets on internally originated assets.
  • −The ratio of operating expenses to equity increased 11 basis points to 1.4% in Q2 FY2026, bringing the first-half ratio to 1.34%. Management attributed the increase partly to elevated expenses during the quarter and expected them to moderate later, but their persistence could pressure earnings efficiency.
  • −Equity issuance could dilute shareholders' ownership if new investments do not generate sufficient returns; Annaly raised approximately $450 million through its at-the-market program during Q2 FY2026, after raising $5.4 billion of capital since Q3 FY2024. Management ties issuance to the presence of a premium to book value and asset attractiveness, but continued issuance remains dependent on successfully deploying capital on an accretive basis.
  • −The range of analyst targets reflects limited revaluation potential compared with the annual peak; the average target of $23.5 is approximately 4.2% below the 52-week high of $24.52, and even the highest target of $24 remains approximately 2.1% below that peak. Therefore, exceeding the annual peak depends on further improvement in book value and earnings available for distribution, rather than an expansion of the current range of analyst estimates.
How do interest rates affect NLY's performance?

Interest rates affect the value of mortgage-backed securities, repurchase costs, hedging income, and prepayment speeds. In Q2 FY2026, lower volatility and a 6-basis-point decline in the average repurchase cost to 3.84% supported earnings, but lower swap receive rates reduced part of this benefit. To mitigate risk, Annaly maintained economic leverage at 5.6 times and added hedging swaps, while book value declined by slightly more than 1% through July 17, 2026, after quarter-end.

What distinguishes Annaly's MSR portfolio?

The market value of the MSR portfolio was approximately $4.1 billion as of June 30, 2026, representing 21% of the company's capital. The related loans carry an average interest rate of 3.3%, providing protection against prepayments, while serious delinquencies remained near 50 basis points and prepayment speed was 5.2 CPR in Q2 FY2026. Annaly uses subservicers at a fixed cost per loan, and therefore sold two low-balance pools for $220 million and committed to purchasing servicing rights with a higher average loan balance valued at approximately $200 million to improve returns.

What are the key liquidity and risk indicators on Annaly's balance sheet?

Annaly ended Q2 FY2026 with $8 billion of unencumbered assets, including $5.5 billion of cash and unencumbered Agency securities. Total assets available for financing were $9.6 billion, an increase of approximately $580 million from the previous quarter, along with $1.6 billion of MSR interests pledged to committed undrawn facilities. In contrast, the portfolio relies on economic leverage of 5.6 times and repurchase financing with an average maturity of 33 days, making liquidity management and interest-rate hedging critical.