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Stocks
NiSource Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall34
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 6/9DistressBetter than 34% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
39
21.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
54
14.4%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
47
6.9%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
46
5.2x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
44
2.85%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
37
1.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
49
9▲3Around median
NI

NI NiSource Inc

NiSource Inc · NYSE
Market Closed
41.42
▲ ⁦+0.01%⁩ (+0.01)
Market Cap$19.9B
Beta0.55
52w Low52w High
38.4549.21
Last Week
⁦-0.58%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.86%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.68%⁩
Last Year
⁦-2.01%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$41
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$51
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$48–$52⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$50.71
⁦+22.4%⁩
Current Price $41.42·Median $51.00
Low
$48.00
High
$52.00
Current price
$41.42
Average target
$50.71
Street summary

Slight Decline in Consensus While the Outlook Remains Positive

The consensus price target remained stable at 50.71 over the last 7 days, but declined by 0.46, or 0.9%, over the last 30 days from 51.17, while the number of analysts remained at 3. Current targets range between 48 and 52, with a median of 51, reflecting limited variation in estimates. The number of analysts also increased from 1 to 3 in the latest daily comparison without any change in the consensus, making the current reading more broadly covered than in the recent past.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
80%
High
Target dispersion
10%
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
3
9
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.80 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-23
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-20
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-17
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.92x
    4.50x36.01x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    19.11x
    4.35x34.77x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.27x
    3.07x24.54x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -5.5%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.4%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    0.3%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    51.8%
    9.8%69.4%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    6.9%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.19x
    1.28x10.25x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    2.8%
    1.4%6.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    63.3%
    35.0%95.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.73
    0.573.91
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

NiSource Inc is a fully regulated utility company operating across six U.S. states, providing energy through its natural gas and electric businesses. Its model is based on investing capital in modernizing gas and electric networks and then recovering those investments through service rates and regulatory recovery mechanisms; new rates and recovery mechanisms at NIPSCO Electric, Columbia Gas of Ohio, and Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania supported results for the first half of fiscal year 2026.

The company is adding to its core business the GenCo platform dedicated to meeting data center demand, with contracts with Amazon and Alphabet. The five-year plan includes $21 billion in core business investments, an additional $2 billion in opportunities, and $7.6 billion in GenCo investments, making the growth mix diversified between modernizing gas and electric utilities and providing generation capacity for large loads.

According to EDGAR data, NiSource recorded revenue of $1.3 billion, net income of $45.5 million, and earnings per share of $0.09 in Q2 fiscal year 2026, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 3.5%. On an adjusted basis, management reported earnings per share of $0.16, compared with $0.22 in Q2 fiscal year 2025, while adjusted earnings per share year-to-date in fiscal year 2026 reached approximately $1.22, an increase of $0.03 from the corresponding period. For comparison, fiscal year 2025 revenue was approximately $6.5 billion, net income was $929.5 million, and earnings per share were $1.95.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 5, 2026, management reaffirmed adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal year 2026 of between $2.02 and $2.07, in addition to annual growth of between 6% and 8% through fiscal year 2030 and compound annual growth of between 9% and 10% from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2033.
  • The Amazon and Alphabet agreements received IURC approvals, and the company is targeting a final order by November 2026 for amendments to the Amazon contract that increased contracted load by 400 megawatts. Management also stated that the Alphabet project was on track to begin receiving power during summer 2026, with load gradually increasing to full capacity by 2030.
  • NiSource signed agreements covering four gigawatts of data center loads and is engaged in active strategic negotiations for another three gigawatts, with visibility into approximately two additional gigawatts within a total nine-gigawatt pipeline. These loads represent a potential driver of GenCo investments and asset base growth, but the three gigawatts and the additional two gigawatts have not yet become announced contracts.
  • The Amazon and Alphabet contracts are expected to reduce bills for existing NIPSCO customers by approximately $1.4 billion over the life of the contracts, amounting to as much as $124 annually for the average residential customer. The pass-through of these benefits was scheduled to begin in Q4 fiscal year 2026 after regulatory approvals were obtained and power delivery began.
  • The company identified cost improvement initiatives exceeding $40 million during fiscal year 2026, including process improvements, technology-enabled efficiency, and Project Apollo. Management expected earnings growth contributions to be more heavily concentrated in the second half of fiscal year 2026, supported by approved recovery mechanisms, regulatory activity in Virginia and Ohio, and the commencement of Alphabet operations.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The regulated utility businesses across six states provide diversification in assets and regulatory environments, while the $21 billion core investment plan targets asset base growth of between 8% and 10% through fiscal year 2030.
  • +IURC approvals for the Amazon and Alphabet contracts provide initial regulatory validation for the GenCo model, while the agreed procedural schedule for subsequent agreements, of between 90 and 120 days, may help convert the data center pipeline into recoverable investments at a clearer pace.
  • +The scale of data center demand gives the company a growth path beyond the traditional utility business; the plan combines four gigawatts under contract, three gigawatts under negotiation, and approximately two gigawatts of prospective customers, with planned GenCo investments of $7.6 billion.
  • +Management reaffirmed fiscal year 2026 guidance despite the decline in quarterly adjusted earnings per share to $0.16, supported by recovery mechanisms that became effective, cost improvement initiatives exceeding $40 million, and growth expected to be more heavily weighted toward the second half of fiscal year 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates NI as “Buy,” with an average target of $50.71 and a narrow range between $48 and $52; the average target is approximately 3% above the 52-week high of $49.21, while the annual range extends to a low of $38.45. A price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the provided data, so the stock's valuation here is based on the company's ability to achieve adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal year 2026 of between $2.02 and $2.07, while balancing GenCo and data center growth against regulatory recovery risks and substantial capital financing.

BuyAnalyst target: $50.71(+22.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving NiSource's growth in fiscal year 2026 and beyond?

Core growth is based on a $21 billion investment plan in gas and electric networks across six states, targeting asset base growth of between 8% and 10% through fiscal year 2030. The GenCo model adds planned investments of $7.6 billion to serve data centers. On August 5, 2026, management reaffirmed annual adjusted earnings per share growth of between 6% and 8% through fiscal year 2030, and compound annual growth of between 9% and 10% from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2033.

How large is NI's data center opportunity?

Management announced signed agreements covering four gigawatts, alongside active strategic negotiations for three gigawatts and visibility into approximately two additional gigawatts. The Amazon and Alphabet contracts received IURC approval, while amendments to the Amazon agreement increased contracted load by 400 megawatts. The company estimated NIPSCO customer savings from the Amazon and Alphabet contracts at approximately $1.4 billion over the life of the two contracts, amounting to as much as $124 annually for the average residential customer.

Did NiSource reaffirm its fiscal year 2026 guidance?

Yes, on August 5, 2026, NiSource reaffirmed its adjusted earnings per share range of between $2.02 and $2.07 for fiscal year 2026. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.16 in Q2 fiscal year 2026 and reached $1.22 year-to-date. Management expects a greater contribution from the second half of fiscal year 2026 due to approved recovery mechanisms, regulatory activity in Virginia and Ohio, and Alphabet operations.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Regulatory recovery of investments remains a key risk; the IURC order issued on August 5, 2026 showed that NIPSCO needs to demonstrate the benefits of each project more precisely to recover gas network modernization investments, even as management confirmed the availability of alternative paths through FMCA and base rate cases.
  • −Adjusted earnings per share in Q2 fiscal year 2026 declined to $0.16 from $0.22 in the corresponding period, as higher operating and maintenance expenses associated with unusual storm activity and costs to maintain workforce continuity during union negotiations offset the benefits of new rates and recovery mechanisms.
  • −The growth plan depends on substantial capital financing, including $21 billion for the core business and $7.6 billion for GenCo, with expected annual equity issuance of between $400 million and $600 million. The company also issued $750 million in subordinated notes in August 2026, highlighting the ongoing need to balance investment with debt and potential dilution from equity issuance.
  • −A significant portion of additional growth is tied to large data center customers such as Amazon and Alphabet; however, the three gigawatts under negotiation and approximately two gigawatts of prospective customers have not become announced contracts. Expansion beyond the nine-gigawatt pipeline requires addressing factors including land, permitting, transmission, fuel supply, and equipment.
  • −A third federal order in June 2026 required the continued operation of the coal-fired Schahfer plant, creating additional compliance costs that the company is seeking to recover through a filing under Section 205 with FERC. The timing of approval or scope of recovery may affect cash flows and the ability to balance reliability with the cost of service.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 14, 2026 recorded net sales of $3.4 million, with four sales and no purchases. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data proves otherwise.
Why did quarterly adjusted earnings decline in Q2 fiscal year 2026?

Adjusted earnings per share declined to $0.16 in Q2 fiscal year 2026 from $0.22 in the corresponding period of fiscal year 2025. New rates and recovery mechanisms supported revenue, including benefits from NIPSCO Electric, Columbia Gas of Ohio, and Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania. However, increased storm activity and expenses to maintain workforce continuity during union negotiations raised operating and maintenance costs and offset part of those benefits.

What are the main regulatory risks facing NiSource?

The company may need additional time or proceedings to recover certain investments, as shown by the IURC order related to gas network modernization in Indiana issued on August 5, 2026. Management said recovery could be pursued through the FMCA mechanism or base rate cases and did not change the capital spending plan or earnings guidance. The company also filed rate cases in Virginia and Kentucky and expects decisions on them in the first half of 2027.

How will NiSource fund its investment plan?

The five-year plan includes $21 billion for the core business, $2 billion in incremental opportunities, and $7.6 billion in GenCo investments. Management aims to maintain a ratio of cash flow from operations to debt of between 14% and 16% in each year of the plan, using a mix of operating cash flows, long-term debt, and minority equity contributions. The plan also includes annual equity issuance of approximately $400 million to $600 million, while the company issued $750 million in subordinated notes in August 2026 to support its capital investment plans.