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Stocks
National Health Investors, Inc.
NHI

NHI National Health Investors, Inc.

National Health Investors, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
70.32
▲ ⁦+0.16%⁩ (+0.11)
Market Cap$3.4B
Beta0.56
52w Low52w High
67.9491.38
Last Week
⁦-2.70%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.61%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.05%⁩
Last Year
⁦-9.56%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall34
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 5/9SafeBetter than 34% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
34
20.3x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
51
23.9%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
39
7.4%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
53
3.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
39
5.23%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
29
-1.8%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
87
33Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$70
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$80
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$78–$80⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$79.40
⁦+12.9%⁩
Current Price $70.32·Median $80.00
Low
$78.00
High
$80.00
Current price
$70.32
Average target
$79.40
Street summary

National Health Investors (NHI) Price Target Analysis

The average price target for NHI stock saw a slight decline of 0.79% over the past thirty days, settling at $81.75 compared to $82.4 in mid-July. This adjustment reflects caution in expectations, especially with recent ratings stabilizing at a "Hold" grade by institutions such as Deutsche Bank, indicating a lack of strong growth catalysts in the near term despite a positive gap between the current price and the target.

As of 2026-08-16
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.63
Buy
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
63%
Mixed
Target dispersion
3%
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
5
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.63 → 3.63
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-06-25
    Deutsche Bank
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-03-27
    Wells Fargo
    —· $86.00
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-01-20
    Deutsche Bank
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.32x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    18.87x
    5.89x47.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.63x
    3.68x29.40x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -1.5%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    23.9%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    10.2%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    28.3%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    7.4%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.87x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    5.2%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    105.3%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.13
    -0.883.10
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-11 data

Company Overview

National Health Investors, Inc. invests in senior housing through two main channels: a triple-net lease portfolio that generates contractual rental revenue, and the SHOP platform, which gives the company direct exposure to the properties' operating performance. In fiscal Q2 2026, cash rental income increased 2.8% year over year, while SHOP platform net operating income reached approximately $11 million, and platform investments increased 137% over the year to approximately $850 million, equivalent to 24% of the company's total.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue reached $121.3 million, compared with $115.1 million in fiscal Q1 2026, while net income was $55.7 million and earnings per share were $1.15. This equates to a calculated net income margin of approximately 45.9%, but it does not represent operating performance alone because the results included a $22 million gain from the sale of five properties for net proceeds of approximately $98.5 million; meanwhile, adjusted FFO per share declined 2.5% year over year to $1.19.

The business mix is increasingly dependent on SHOP, whose net operating income increased 188.5% year over year following the transition or acquisition of 27 properties. In contrast, the triple-net lease portfolio remains a stable base, with full collection of contractual rent, while EBITDARM coverage improved to 1.62 for senior housing and 2.66 for skilled nursing facilities during the twelve months ended March 31, 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • NHI completed $237.2 million of investments since the beginning of fiscal 2026 at an average yield of 7.7%, including more than $212 million in SHOP, and has signed letters of intent totaling approximately $127.3 million at an estimated initial yield of 6.8% and 6.5% after capital maintenance expenditures.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The sale of the NHC portfolio on July 1, 2026, for $560 million is a key liquidity driver; the company used approximately $221 million to purchase replacement properties and retained approximately $334 million for tax-deferred reinvestment under Section 1031, with an expected gain of approximately $541.6 million in fiscal Q3 2026.
  • SHOP performance improved sequentially in fiscal Q2 2026; net operating income from the twenty-six properties held since the beginning of the year increased approximately 7.6% from the previous quarter, while net operating income from the comparable legacy Holiday properties increased 18.9% sequentially despite remaining down 6.3% year over year.
  • Management aims to increase SHOP exposure from approximately 24% to a range of 40%–50% through a three-year plan and aspires to raise the pace of annual acquisitions from a range of $200–400 million to $500–700 million. This is supported by additional transactions under evaluation totaling approximately $420 million, excluding several large portfolios.
  • The company raised its quarterly dividend by $0.02 to $0.94 per share for shareholders of record on September 30, 2026, payable on November 6, 2026. FAD in fiscal Q2 2026 also reached approximately $61.6 million, an increase of 5.8% year over year.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +The NHC transaction provided substantial financial flexibility, as available liquidity on June 30, 2026, was approximately $792.4 million before the sale was completed, and the company expects to repay a $100 million private note due in January 2027 by the end of fiscal 2026, with no other maturities until 2028.
    • +The portfolio combines the stability of triple-net leases with SHOP growth; contractual rent was collected in full, while total SHOP net operating income increased 188.5% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026.
    • +Recent acquisitions support the growth trajectory, as management expects the new SHOP properties to generate high-single-digit to low-double-digit net operating income growth, while fiscal 2026 investments were completed at an average yield of 7.7%.
    • +Rent coverage strengthened across the main asset classes, with EBITDARM coverage for senior housing increasing from 1.52 to 1.62 and for skilled nursing facilities from 2.26 to 2.66 during the comparative periods ended March 31, 2026.
    • +Insider transactions during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 15, 2026, indicate two purchases and no sales, with net buying activity of 167,027.165 according to the provided data, a supportive signal that does not replace an assessment of operating performance.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The legacy SHOP portfolio faces ongoing operational weakness; net operating income from the fifteen comparable Holiday properties declined 6.3% year over year to $3.6 million in fiscal Q2 2026, and maintaining annual growth guidance of 1% to 3% requires approximately 8%–9% growth in the second half of fiscal 2026.
    • −SHOP's improvement depends partly on an occupancy recovery and the execution of property-specific plans; one building has units out of service that are reducing occupancy by at least one percentage point, with the related project expected to be completed by the end of fiscal 2026, and management also noted increased move-outs and deaths over several months.
    • −The headline accounting figures received substantial support from asset sales; fiscal Q2 2026 net income included a $22 million real estate gain, while NAREIT FFO per share was flat and adjusted FFO per share declined 2.5% year over year to $1.19.
    • −General and administrative expenses increased 44% year over year to $8.8 million in fiscal Q2 2026 as the company expanded personnel and infrastructure supporting SHOP, while interest expense increased 5.4% due to higher average interest rates and an increased balance on the revolving credit facility.
    • −Competition for senior housing acquisitions intensified; the pricing spread between large and small transactions narrowed from at least 100 basis points to 25–50 basis points during the six months preceding the call, and yields on higher-quality assets declined to approximately 6%–6.5% and potentially lower, which may pressure returns on newly deployed capital.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Neutral, with an average price target of $81.75 within a relatively narrow range of $80 to $86; the average is approximately 10.5% below the 52-week range high of $91.38 and approximately 20.3% above its low of $67.94. The absence of a published P/E ratio in the provided data, together with the latest net income's dependence on gains from property sales, makes adjusted FFO, FAD growth, and the reinvestment of NHC proceeds more appropriate indicators for assessing valuation than accounting earnings per share alone.

    HoldAnalyst target: $81.75(+16.3%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving NHI's growth in fiscal 2026?

    Growth is centered on expanding the SHOP platform and acquiring private-pay senior housing. NHI's investments since the beginning of fiscal 2026 reached approximately $237.2 million at an average yield of 7.7%, including more than $212 million in SHOP. It also has signed letters of intent totaling approximately $127.3 million and additional transactions under evaluation totaling approximately $420 million, excluding several large portfolios.

    How did NHI perform in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue was $121.3 million, net income was $55.7 million, and earnings per share were $1.15. Earnings per share increased 45.6% year over year, but the increase benefited substantially from a $22 million gain on property sales. NAREIT FFO per share was flat at $1.19, while adjusted FFO per share declined 2.5% and FAD increased 5.8% to $61.6 million.

    Why is the NHC portfolio sale important to NHI investors?

    NHI completed the sale on July 1, 2026, for $560 million in cash and expects to recognize a gain of approximately $541.6 million in fiscal Q3 2026. The company used approximately $221 million of the proceeds to complete purchases of replacement properties and retained approximately $334 million for tax-deferred reinvestment under Section 1031. Successfully redeploying the remaining amount into accretive assets is important for achieving the target of 5% or greater FAD growth and avoiding the need for a special distribution.

    Is the SHOP portfolio's performance improving or declining?

    The picture was mixed in fiscal Q2 2026; total SHOP net operating income increased 188.5% year over year to $11 million due to the transition or acquisition of 27 properties. Net operating income from the comparable legacy Holiday properties increased 18.9% from fiscal Q1 2026 but remained down 6.3% year over year at $3.6 million. Achieving annual growth guidance of 1%–3% requires approximately 8%–9% growth in the second half of fiscal 2026.

    What is NHI's debt and liquidity position after the NHC transaction?

    The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 4.1 times on June 30, 2026, within the target range of 3.5 to 4.5 times. Available liquidity on that date was approximately $792.4 million, consisting of $262 million of unused capacity under the revolving facility and $500 million available through the ATM program and cash. The company repaid a $125 million term loan during fiscal Q2 2026 and expects to repay a $100 million note by the end of fiscal 2026, with no other maturities until 2028.

    What are the main risks to NHI stock based on the fiscal Q2 2026 results?

    The main operating risks are the 6.3% year-over-year decline in net operating income from the comparable legacy SHOP properties and the need for a strong occupancy improvement during the second half of fiscal 2026. The company also faces a 44% increase in general and administrative expenses and a 5.4% increase in interest expense, along with a 2.5% decline in adjusted FFO per share. In addition, intensified competition has reduced yields on higher-quality assets to approximately 6%–6.5%, making it more difficult to reinvest $334 million of the NHC proceeds at appropriately accretive returns.

    Reinvesting approximately $334 million of the NHC proceeds remains an execution and tax risk because management is seeking to deploy it under Section 1031 and avoid a special distribution, while taxable income and capital gains for fiscal 2026 could not be determined at the time of the call.