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Stocks
Noble Corporation Plc
NE

NE Noble Corporation Plc

Noble Corporation Plc · NYSE
Market Closed
45.28
▼ ⁦-1.01%⁩ (-0.46)
Market Cap$7.2B
Beta0.92
52w Low52w High
26.7054.98
Last Week
⁦-5.82%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.06%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.93%⁩
Last Year
⁦+57.11%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall52
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 52% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
43
48.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
29
-11.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
51
4.6%4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
65
1.6x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
51
4.47%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
68
42.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
39
5▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$45
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$53
⁦+17%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$40–$59⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$18
⁦-61%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.4⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$18–$53⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$50.67
⁦+11.9%⁩
Current Price $45.28·Median $53.00
Low
$40.00
High
$59.00
Current price
$45.28
Average target
$50.67
Street summary

Noble’s targets remain stable with limited divergence

Consensus target price estimates have not changed over the past 30 days, remaining at $50.67, while the number of analysts stayed at 3. The range is between $40 and $59, with a median of $53, reflecting relatively notable divergence among estimates compared with the current price of $45.61, with no recent change in the consensus level.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.55
Buy
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
45%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
42%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
1
4
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.20 → 3.55
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-07
    Citigroup
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-04-29
    Barclays
    —· $50.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    48.17x
    3.56x28.47x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    29.53x
    3.36x26.89x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.58x
    2.12x16.98x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.9%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -11.1%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -50.5%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    26.7%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    4.6%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.64x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.5%
    0.4%10.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    216.1%
    11.9%109.0%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.29
    -1.814.34
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Noble Corporation Plc provides contract offshore drilling services through a fleet of ultra-deepwater rigs, semisubmersible rigs, and CJ-70 harsh-environment rigs. Its revenue model is based on operating rigs under contracts that specify the work duration and dayrate, with additional reimbursable revenue and ancillary services; the company stated that its $6.8 billion backlog as of July 27, 2026, excludes this additional revenue. Fleet activity is distributed across regions including Brazil, the U.S. Gulf, Guyana, the North Sea, Norway, and Asia Pacific, making results dependent on rig utilization rates, contract commencement timing, and dayrates.

In Q2 FY2026, the financial statements reported revenue of $719.7 million and a net loss of $36.7 million, equivalent to a loss of $0.23 per share, compared with revenue of $785.7 million, net income of $120.7 million, and earnings of $0.75 per share in Q1 FY2026. On a more specific operating basis, management reported contract drilling services revenue of $679 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $212 million at a 30% margin. Cash flow from operations was $144 million, while capital expenditures of $205 million resulted in negative free cash flow of $59 million.

FY2025 revenue was approximately $3.3 billion, net income was $216.7 million, and earnings per share were $1.35. The latest available trailing-twelve-month figures indicate revenue of $3.1 billion, net income of $149.6 million, and earnings per share of approximately $0.94, but the data does not provide gross profit or its margin. Q2 FY2026 results were negatively affected by $43 million due to an operational suspension involving the Noble Courage and Noble Faye Kozak rigs in Brazil, in addition to a $42 million impairment related to the sale of Ocean Apex for scrap.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The backlog stood at $6.8 billion as of July 27, 2026, including approximately $1 billion expected to convert into revenue during the remainder of FY2026 and approximately $2.3 billion during FY2027, giving the company contractual visibility beyond a single quarter's results.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The Noble Viking and Noble Claus Bachmann contracts added approximately $200 million to the backlog; the first covers six wells in Asia Pacific through most of FY2028, with options extending into FY2029, while the second covers three wells with BP in the UK North Sea for an estimated 150 to 210 days at a dayrate of $320 thousand, beginning in March 2027 before a three-year contract with Aker BP in Norway.
  • New contracting for the ultra-deepwater fleet reached 77 rig years during the first half of FY2026, the highest level in more than a decade, while open demand remained above 95 rig years. Contracted utilization of the marketed fleet reached 95%, with 104 rigs currently or prospectively contracted, while current utilization was 79% across 87 units operating under contract.
  • Strong forward demand raised recent contract dayrates to the mid-$400 thousand range, with future programs generally commanding higher rates than short-term gap-filling work. Demand strength is concentrated in Africa and Asia Pacific; open demand in Asia Pacific and India reached 42 rig years, representing 45% of global open demand even though the region accounts for only 10% of the current global rig count.
  • Management lowered its FY2026 revenue guidance range to $2.8–$2.9 billion from $2.8–$3.0 billion and reduced adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance to $850–$925 million from $940 million–$1.02 billion. The revision is primarily related to the impact of the two Brazil rigs, along with the transfer of work between Noble Innovator and Noble Intrepid and the potential shift of Noble Viking options into FY2027.
  • The company maintained distributions of $0.50 per share in Q2 FY2026, equivalent to $80 million returned to shareholders, and the board approved a similar distribution for payment in September 2026. In June 2026, it also issued $800 million of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due in 2034, from which it expects annual cash benefits of $35 million, mostly from interest and taxes.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The $6.8 billion backlog provides a relatively clear revenue base, including $2.3 billion scheduled to convert into revenue during FY2027, while the Noble Viking and Noble Claus Bachmann contracts added approximately $200 million of new work.
    • +Industry indicators support the potential for improving utilization and pricing, as contracted utilization of the marketed fleet reached 95%, more than 95 rig years of open demand remained, and rates for some recent contracts rose to the mid-$400 thousand per day range.
    • +Noble has direct exposure to growth regions; open demand in Asia Pacific and India reached 42 rig years, and management expects the region could expand to the low teens in rig count by late 2027, while it also sees the potential for the African market to rise to the high teens during the second half of 2027.
    • +The capital return program provides support to shareholders while awaiting contract commencements, with quarterly distributions of $0.50 per share in Q2 FY2026 and a similar distribution scheduled for September 2026, alongside refinancing that the company expects to generate an annual cash benefit of $35 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Q2 FY2026 showed revenue declining to $719.7 million from $785.7 million in Q1 FY2026, while the result shifted from net income of $120.7 million to a loss of $36.7 million. Free cash flow was also negative by $59 million after capital expenditures of $205 million, illustrating the sensitivity of earnings and cash to rig downtime and capital spending.
    • −Management lowered FY2026 revenue guidance to $2.8–$2.9 billion and reduced adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance to $850–$925 million. The pressure is not limited to a single event but includes the impact of the two Brazil rigs, the transfer of work from Noble Innovator to Noble Intrepid, and the potential shift of Noble Viking options into FY2027.
    • −Brazil represents tangible operational and regulatory exposure; the suspension resulting from the ANP audit reduced Q2 FY2026 results by $43 million, and guidance includes an additional revenue reduction of at least $15 million through January 2027. Although Noble Courage and Noble Faye Kozak returned to operations, management confirmed that the regulatory matter remains ongoing and that the range of outcomes could move on either side of the included estimate.
    • −The demand picture weakened in the Western Hemisphere, as ultra-deepwater demand in South America declined to 41 units from 44 over six months, driven primarily by reduced Petrobras activity, while the U.S. Gulf unit count fell to 19 from 21. The expected end of the Noble Stanley Lafosse contract in January 2027 instead of July 2027 adds risk to revenue timing and fleet utilization.
    • −Customers may delay drilling if they do not perceive sufficient rig scarcity, and management said this option remains available and that it does not expect sharp dayrate increases similar to previous cycles. Four of five long-term ONGC tenders were also withdrawn, while management expects the multi-rig exploration campaign in India to be delayed by approximately one year due to planning and financing.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus on NE stock is Neutral, with an average target of $50.67, a low of $40, and a high of $59; the average is only $4.31 below the 52-week range high of $54.98, while the range low is $26.695. No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, and analyst targets should be weighed against the reduced FY2026 guidance and the loss reported in Q2 FY2026, versus a backlog of $6.8 billion and the potential for improved utilization in the second half of FY2027.

    HoldAnalyst target: $50.67(+11.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did Noble report a loss in Q2 FY2026?

    Noble reported a net loss of $36.7 million, or $0.23 per share, on revenue of $719.7 million in Q2 FY2026. The operational suspension of the Noble Courage and Noble Faye Kozak rigs in Brazil had a negative impact of $43 million. The company also recorded a $42 million impairment related to the sale of Ocean Apex for scrap, while net sale proceeds at closing in early July 2026 were approximately $5 million. Despite generating $144 million of operating cash flow, capital expenditures of $205 million resulted in negative free cash flow of $59 million.

    Why is Noble's $6.8 billion backlog important?

    The backlog stood at $6.8 billion as of July 27, 2026, excluding reimbursable revenue and ancillary services revenue. The company expects approximately $1 billion of it to convert into revenue during the remainder of FY2026 and approximately $2.3 billion during FY2027. The Noble Viking and Noble Claus Bachmann contracts added approximately $200 million to the backlog. However, the backlog reflects an expected end date for the Noble Stanley Lafosse contract in January 2027 instead of July 2027, reducing the expected revenue duration of that program.

    Which new contracts could support Noble's growth?

    Noble Viking secured a six-well contract in Asia Pacific that is expected to cover most of FY2028, with options extending into FY2029. Noble Claus Bachmann also secured a three-well contract with BP in the UK North Sea for an estimated 150 to 210 days at a dayrate of $320 thousand, plus mobilization fees. This program is scheduled to begin in March 2027 before a three-year contract with Aker BP in Norway. The combined value added by these two contracts to the backlog is approximately $200 million.

    What is the impact of the issue involving Noble's two rigs in Brazil?

    An audit conducted by ANP caused Noble Courage and Noble Faye Kozak to be suspended during May and June 2026, reducing Q2 FY2026 results by $43 million. Both rigs were operating at the time of the earnings call on July 28, 2026, but the company remained engaged in an administrative process with the regulator. Updated guidance includes an additional revenue reduction of at least $15 million through January 2027, concentrated primarily in the second half of FY2026. Management explained that the guidance accommodates a range of potential outcomes around this estimate.

    Does the offshore drilling market support Noble's earnings in FY2027?

    Ultra-deepwater contracting reached 77 rig years during the first half of FY2026, the highest level in more than a decade, with more than 95 rig years of open demand remaining. Contracted utilization of the marketed fleet reached 95%, while current utilization was 79% across 87 contracted units. Management sees a path toward the marketed fleet approaching full contracting by late 2027, supported by strength in Africa and Asia Pacific. However, work opportunities are weighted toward the second half of 2027, while the U.S. Gulf and Brazil remained relatively weaker.

    How is Noble returning capital to shareholders, and what is the impact of the refinancing?

    Noble returned approximately $80 million to shareholders through a quarterly distribution of $0.50 per share in Q2 FY2026. The board approved an additional distribution of $0.50 per share for payment in September 2026. In June 2026, the company issued $800 million of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due in 2034 to refinance legacy Diamond notes and a portion of Noble's outstanding notes. Management expects the simplified capital structure to generate annual cash benefits of $35 million, mostly from lower interest expense and tax effects.

    −
    Analyst consensus is Neutral, with targets ranging from $40 to $59, a $19 spread that reflects substantial divergence in estimates of the earnings and contracting trajectory. Insiders also recorded two sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 15, 2026, for net sales of $2.3 million; however, these sales are a weak signal on their own and may have been prearranged unless the data indicates otherwise.