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Stocks
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall96
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 5/9SafeBetter than 96% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
43
22.9x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
93
34.4%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
93
15.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
93
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
38
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
73
19.4%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
63
14▲3Around median
NBIX

NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
156.22
▼ ⁦-0.22%⁩ (-0.35)
Market Cap$15.7B
Beta0.39
52w Low52w High
122.14186.12
Last Week
⁦-0.34%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.25%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+0.31%⁩
Last Year
⁦+15.35%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$156
Analyst target · 13 analysts
$208
⁦+33%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$165–$230⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$203
⁦+30%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$203–$208⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 13 analysts setting price target
$203.82
⁦+30.5%⁩
Current Price $156.22·Median $208.00
Low
$165.00
High
$230.00
Current price
$156.22
Average target
$203.82
Street summary

Near-complete stability with a wide divergence in targets

The average price target rose to 203.82 from 203.05 30 days ago, an increase of only 0.38%, while the number of analysts increased to 13 with no change. The average also rose 0.35% over 7 days and remained virtually unchanged over one day (+0.03%), indicating a very slight improvement in the outlook rather than a strong shift. The current price stands at 156.22, compared with a target range of 165 to 230 and a midpoint average of 208, reflecting a notable divergence among estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
27
Buy conviction
85%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
42%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time27 analysts rating
4
19
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Wedbush
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    22.87x
    3.94x44.30x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    16.36x
    4.64x37.16x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.06x
    3.77x30.13x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.5%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    34.4%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    100.3%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    98.0%
    12.8%90.7%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    15.3%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.09x
    0.60x5.10x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    7.20
    -38.7417.53
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial biopharmaceutical company focused on neurological and psychiatric disorders and rare endocrine diseases. The company generated its Q2 FY2026 revenue from three key drugs: INGREZZA for movement disorders, CRENESSITY for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and VYKAT XR for Prader-Willi syndrome. The portfolio expanded through the acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics for approximately $2.9 billion in cash, and VYKAT XR sales have been included in Neurocrine's results since the transaction closed on May 18, 2026.

Q2 FY2026 revenue was approximately $959.0 million, up about 39% year over year, while net income was $144.4 million, representing a calculated net margin of approximately 15.1%, and GAAP earnings per share were $1.39. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.85 versus expectations of $2.26. The difference between GAAP and adjusted earnings was affected by approximately $130 million in acquisition costs recorded during the quarter, in addition to approximately $20 million in intangible asset amortization and the accounting fair-value step-up of inventory.

INGREZZA remained the largest driver, generating revenue of $716 million, or approximately 74.7% of total Q2 FY2026 revenue, with year-over-year growth of 15%. CRENESSITY generated sales of $184 million, while VYKAT XR pro forma sales reached $94 million, of which Neurocrine recognized $54 million since the acquisition closing date. Including VYKAT XR for the full quarter, total pro forma revenue was $998 million, illustrating the portfolio's expansion while it remains heavily dependent on INGREZZA.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Neurocrine raised its FY2026 INGREZZA sales guidance from a range of $2.7–$2.8 billion to $2.825–$2.875 billion, with the midpoint representing year-over-year growth of approximately 13%, after Q2 FY2026 sales reached $716 million and grew 15%.
  • CRENESSITY generated sales of $184 million in Q2 FY2026, up 20% sequentially according to an analyst's question on the call, and its use reached approximately 15% of estimated diagnosed patients, while the number of prescribers became nearly three times its level a year ago.
  • VYKAT XR pro forma sales reached $94 million in Q2 FY2026, with Neurocrine recognizing $54 million since May 18, 2026; management expects to move past the wave of discontinuations associated with the launch bolus during Q3 and achieve sequential quarterly growth in Q4 FY2026 and beyond.
  • The research portfolio awaits specific clinical milestones in the second half of 2027, including topline Phase 3 results for osavampator in major depressive disorder and the first Phase 3 readout for dereclidine in schizophrenia, while the second Phase 3 study readout for dereclidine is scheduled for 2028.
  • VYKAT XR safety became a direct factor in the stock's movement following August 12, 2026 reports linking the treatment to seven deaths and 100 serious adverse events; the available data did not establish a direct causal relationship, but they increased market sensitivity to any subsequent medical or regulatory information.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Commercial performance showed clear strength in Q2 FY2026, as revenue grew approximately 39% to $959 million, adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations by $0.59, and the company raised INGREZZA sales guidance after recording record levels of new patients and total prescriptions.
  • +Growth in CRENESSITY and the addition of VYKAT XR gradually reduce dependence on a single product; the two drugs generated pro forma sales of $184 million and $94 million, respectively, in Q2 FY2026, compared with $716 million for INGREZZA.
  • +Neurocrine ended Q2 FY2026 with approximately $500 million in cash and no debt after financing the approximately $2.9 billion cash acquisition of Soleno, while the non-GAAP operating income margin exceeded 30%, according to management.
  • +The Phase 3 readouts scheduled for the second half of 2027 for osavampator and dereclidine provide two potential growth paths beyond the current commercial products, while the intellectual property coverage cited by management for VYKAT XR extends into the mid-2040s.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates NBIX stock a “Buy,” with an average price target of $203.11 and a wide range between $165 and $230. The average target is approximately 9% above the 52-week range high of $186.12, while the low target falls within the 52-week range of $122.14–$186.12, reflecting meaningful divergence in assessments of product opportunities and clinical risks. The positive case is based on growth in INGREZZA and CRENESSITY and portfolio expansion, while VYKAT XR safety concerns, revenue concentration, and the wide target range justify a high degree of valuation uncertainty.

BuyAnalyst target: $203.11(+30.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove NBIX's Q2 FY2026 results?

Q2 FY2026 revenue was approximately $959 million, representing year-over-year growth of about 39%. INGREZZA generated sales of $716 million, up 15%, while CRENESSITY added $184 million. Neurocrine also recognized $54 million from VYKAT XR since the Soleno acquisition closed on May 18, 2026, while its full-quarter pro forma sales were $94 million. Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.85 versus expectations of $2.26, while GAAP earnings per share were $1.39.

How important is INGREZZA to Neurocrine's business?

INGREZZA generated sales of $716 million in Q2 FY2026, representing approximately 74.7% of the company's total revenue. The drug recorded record levels of new patients and total prescriptions, and its sales grew 15% compared with the same period. The company raised its FY2026 sales guidance to $2.825–$2.875 billion, representing growth of approximately 13% at the midpoint. Contracting covers approximately 70% of Medicare beneficiaries during FY2026, but the pricing impact of the Inflation Reduction Act will become an important factor in 2029.

Does CRENESSITY have additional room for growth?

CRENESSITY generated sales of $184 million in Q2 FY2026 and reached only approximately 15% of estimated diagnosed patients. The number of prescribers became nearly three times its level a year ago, with use spreading among adults and children and across centers of excellence and community endocrinologists. At ENDO 26, the company presented two-year follow-up data and cited more than 35 thousand patient-weeks of treatment exposure. It also reported that more than 90% of patients pay ten dollars or less per month, supporting accessibility compared with the typical pricing barriers for specialty drugs.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Revenue concentration represents a fundamental risk, as INGREZZA generated approximately $716 million, or 74.7% of total Q2 FY2026 revenue, making financial performance sensitive to any change in demand, insurance coverage, or pricing for this drug.
  • −August 12, 2026 reports raised safety concerns about VYKAT XR following reports of seven deaths and 100 serious adverse events associated with its use; although the data do not establish causation, continued uncertainty could pressure physician and patient confidence and the commercial and regulatory trajectory of the asset acquired by the company for approximately $2.9 billion.
  • −VYKAT XR pro forma sales of $94 million showed no sequential growth in Q2 FY2026, and management expects a long-term discontinuation rate of between 25% and 30% after the launch bolus is absorbed, making the product's acceleration dependent on overcoming discontinuations and increasing new patients.
  • −Competition remains present in the VMAT2 inhibitor market through AUSTEDO XR, while other companies are developing treatments for congenital adrenal hyperplasia; the future value of the osavampator and dereclidine programs also depends on demonstrating superiority or differentiation in markets with existing treatments and competitors.
  • −INGREZZA profitability and earnings-per-share volatility may come under pressure when the pricing provisions of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act take effect in 2029; management had not specified on the July 30, 2026 call the maximum fair price that would apply to the drug.
  • −The Soleno acquisition increased the expense base and resulted in approximately $150 million in transaction-related costs, of which $130 million was recorded in Q2 FY2026, in addition to approximately $20 million in non-cash purchase accounting effects, contributing to the wider gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings per share.
  • −Insiders recorded net sales of $48.8 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 28, 2026, through 14 sales and no purchases; this is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged and do not prove deterioration in the operating fundamentals.
  • What are the risks associated with VYKAT XR?

    Reports dated August 12, 2026 cited seven deaths and 100 serious adverse events associated with VYKAT XR, which is used for Prader-Willi syndrome. The available data do not establish that the drug directly caused these cases, but they create medical, regulatory, and commercial risks that warrant monitoring. Commercially, pro forma sales reached $94 million in Q2 FY2026 and were approximately flat sequentially. Management expects the long-term discontinuation rate to stabilize at 25%–30% and sequential quarterly growth to begin in Q4 FY2026.

    What are the main clinical catalysts for NBIX stock?

    Neurocrine is targeting the release of topline Phase 3 results for osavampator in major depressive disorder during the second half of 2027. It is also targeting the first Phase 3 readout for dereclidine in schizophrenia during the second half of 2027, followed by a second Phase 3 study readout in 2028. Dereclidine differs from some competing approaches because it is a selective M4 agonist that does not require the addition of an antimuscarinic, according to management's description, and Phase 2 showed a clean gastrointestinal profile, no weight gain, and no food effect with once-daily dosing without titration. The value of these programs remains contingent on the success of subsequent studies, and Phase 2 data are insufficient to guarantee Phase 3 results.

    How strong is Neurocrine's financial position after the Soleno acquisition?

    Neurocrine paid approximately $2.9 billion in cash to acquire Soleno and ended Q2 FY2026 with approximately $500 million in cash and no debt. The transaction added VYKAT XR, which generated $94 million in pro forma sales during the quarter, and management described the transaction as immediately accretive to non-GAAP earnings. In contrast, the company expects approximately $150 million in acquisition costs, of which $130 million was recorded in Q2 FY2026. The results also included approximately $20 million in intangible asset amortization and the accounting fair-value step-up of inventory.