| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 74 | 16.0x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 45 | 10.3% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 65 | 21.5% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 66 | 2.1x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 60 | 0.46% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 81 | 53.5% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 68 | 7 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Murphy USA operates a network of retail stores that sell fuel and in-store merchandise, and its model combines fuel volumes, retail margins per gallon, and the contribution of merchandise categories such as nicotine products, beverages, candy, lottery, and beer. The platform also includes QuickChek, where the company is improving food, beverages, coffee, and baked goods, while its supply assets support its ability to purchase fuel directly from refineries and transport and store it at its locations or through approximately 100 third-party terminals.
In fiscal year 2023, Murphy USA recorded revenue of $21.5 billion, net income of $556.8 million, and earnings per share of $25.49, compared with revenue of $23.4 billion, net income of $672.9 million, and earnings per share of $28.10 in fiscal year 2022. Accordingly, revenue declined by approximately 8%, net income by approximately 17%, and earnings per share by approximately 9% between the two years, but fiscal year 2023 results remained clearly above fiscal year 2021 levels of $17.4 billion in revenue and $396.9 million in net income.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, same-store fuel volume increased 0.5%, merchandise contribution dollars grew, and merchandise margin delivered positive growth despite consumer pressure. The fuel business benefited from tight supply; the controllable supply component return exceeded $0.07 per gallon versus approximately $0.025 in the comparable period, while QuickChek food and beverage sales and margins began to turn to positive growth, with unit performance remaining below management's target level.
The average analyst target is $605.67, within a wide range of $450 to $710, and the stock carries a neutral consensus; the average is below the 52-week range high of $636.05, while the highest target exceeds that high. The breadth of the targets compared with the 52-week range of $349.83 to $636.05 reflects significant differences in estimates of the sustainability of fuel margins and volume growth, so the neutral consensus does not provide a one-directional valuation case.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Murphy USA relies on fuel sales and in-store merchandise contribution, including nicotine, beverages, candy, lottery, and beer. Its purchasing, transportation, and storage assets support fuel economics; in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, the controllable supply component return exceeded $0.07 per gallon versus approximately $0.025 in the comparable period. QuickChek also adds food, beverages, coffee, and baked goods to the mix, and its food and beverage sales and margins turned to positive growth during the same quarter.
Same-store fuel volume increased 0.5% during quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 despite sharp, opposing movements in RBOB prices. In May 2026, a 16% decline in RBOB drove volume growth of 1.6%, after which growth exceeded 2% in the second half of the month when the decline reached 18%. Profitability also benefited from tight supply and the company's ability to purchase fuel directly from refineries and transport and store it through its assets and third-party terminals.
Enrollments exceeded 600 thousand members in each month of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, up from a previous level of approximately 400 thousand per month. The proportion of new enrollees who were new customers or lapsed returning customers approached 46%, versus 40% in the previous quarter. The company uses an automated offer journey, including spending $5 in-store to receive a $0.05 fuel discount, to increase engagement and convert customers from the pump to the store.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The company expects to deliver approximately 45 new stores in fiscal year 2026, near the low end of its announced range and without assuming tuck-in acquisitions. Management explained that higher capital expenditure includes the potential pull-forward of some fiscal year 2027 construction, along with replacing pumps, HVAC systems, and safes and investing in the land bank. A new store needs approximately three years to reach its full earnings capacity, so the impact of openings appears gradually.
Management expects merchandise to come in near the low end of the fiscal year 2026 range due to pressure on customer budgets and the effects of storms in quarter 1 that closed up to half of the network at one point. Quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 faces a difficult comparison with the Zyn campaign, while cigarettes carry a lower margin than nicotine pouches and other tobacco products. In non-nicotine categories, lottery and beer remained under pressure, despite strength in energy drinks and growth in total merchandise contribution dollars in quarter 2.
MUSA carries a neutral consensus and an average target of $605.67, with a low target of $450 and a high target of $710. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $636.05, while the highest target exceeds it. The wide range indicates analyst disagreement regarding the sustainability of the $0.35-per-gallon fuel margin floor in the fiscal year 2026 second-half outlook and the ability of loyalty growth and new stores to offset volume and merchandise pressures.
