| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 43 | 36.3x | 17.3x | Around median | |
Growth | 17 | -4.3% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 83 | 9.8% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 38 | 4.3x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 86 | 5.93% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 68 | -10.7% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 67 | 9 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
85% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Vail Resorts operates a network of owned and operated ski resorts within an ecosystem that connects season passes and lift tickets with equipment rentals, ski schools, dining, and lodging. Its model relies on securing visitors' commitments upfront through Epic products, then increasing their spending within the resort, while using marketing and data to connect resorts with their customers. Fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-07-31, demonstrates the importance of this model: skier visits fell by 30% compared with the previous fiscal year, while lift revenue declined by just 3.5%, supported by 4% growth in pass revenue over the same comparison period.
In quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-07-31, resort revenue was approximately flat compared with the same quarter of the previous fiscal year; poor snowfall in Australia weighed on visits, while growth in Australian pass revenue and Grand Teton Lodge Company revenue offset part of the impact. For fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-07-31, revenue totaled $2.8 billion and net income was $147.5 million, compared with revenue of $3.0 billion and net income of $280.0 million in fiscal year 2025. Rental, instruction, and dining services are an important focus of the recovery plan, as management expects their revenue to grow while U.S. visits in fiscal year 2027 remain below fiscal year 2025 levels.
Cash generation remains a strength alongside declining earnings: according to EL7 data, operating cash flow for the last 12 months through 2026-07-31 was approximately $479.6 million, equivalent to 325% of net income of $147.5 million for the same period. Free cash flow as calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) for the last 12 months through 2026-07-31 was approximately $248.0 million. However, a sustainable recovery depends on bringing visitors back and converting them into buyers of additional services, while controlling expenses.
Last 12 months to 2026-07-31
When: 2026-12-09
Progression of pass sales value relative to the 6% decline
Review of the $158 million lower bound of fiscal year 2027 net income guidance
The discounted cash flow model provides a low-confidence indicative value of $246, within a range of $174 to $365, by discounting future cash flows at 8.7% while following analysts' earnings estimates. The median analyst target, which reflects growth expectations, is $139 within a range of $117 to $191 across 3 analysts, also a low-confidence indicative estimate. The industry-multiple value is $76, within a range of $59 to $91, based on next year's earnings and a median multiple of 13.5 across 21 companies, while the no-growth value is $18 when holding current after-tax operating profit constant in perpetuity at an 8.7% discount rate. The forecast-based methods agree on values above the value under stalled growth, but differ considerably in magnitude: the cash flow model measures expected cash generation, analyst targets price in anticipated growth, the industry multiple values the company in line with its peers, and the no-growth model tests what remains when growth stops. Analyst targets generally tend toward optimism and cash flow models toward conservatism, but the cash flow value here exceeds the median target, highlighting the result's sensitivity to the expected earnings path and the low confidence in both estimates.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Season passes tie part of revenue to the customer's commitment before visiting, rather than relying entirely on a ticket purchase for each visit. In fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-07-31, skier visits fell by 30% compared with the previous fiscal year, but lift revenue declined by just 3.5%, with pass revenue growing by 4% over the same comparison period. This gap demonstrates revenue protection during weak usage, but it does not eliminate the impact of lower visits on opportunities to sell food, equipment, and lessons.
Through 2026-09-18, pass units fell by 12% and sales value including taxes by 6% compared with the same period of 2025. Management believes some less frequent destination visitors are delaying their decisions after difficult skiing conditions and may return through lift tickets rather than passes. The company is using Epic Friend Ticket at a 50% discount and tickets booked 30 days in advance at a 30% discount to target them, as explained on 2026-09-28. Their shift to tickets remains a key assumption in fiscal year 2027 guidance, rather than demonstrated evidence of recovering demand.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
When: Fiscal year 2027
Achievement of the targeted $25 million in additional efficiencies
My Epic Gear aims to make equipment rental more flexible and reduce the hassle of transporting equipment and completing rental procedures, within the Epic Experience strategy. On the 2026-09-28 call, management identified fiscal year 2028 as the target for the first integrated version of the program, with personalized integration within the app. Management views equipment as a significant longer-term financial opportunity, while linking it with lessons, dining, and resorts allows for greater loyalty and associated spending. This timeline differs from the addition of in-app purchasing in My Epic and support for Apple Pay and Google Pay for passes in September 2026, digital steps that have already begun.
According to EL7 data, operating cash flow for the last 12 months through 2026-07-31 was approximately $479.6 million, compared with net income of $147.5 million for the same period. Free cash flow as calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) for the last 12 months through 2026-07-31 was approximately $248.0 million. On the 2026-09-28 call, management expected free cash flow to remain positive after funding the capital program and dividends, even at the low end of fiscal year 2027 guidance. However, net leverage of 3.9 times as of 2026-07-31 makes achieving an operating recovery important to reaching the expected level of approximately 3.5 times by the end of fiscal year 2027.
The earnings announcement expected on 2026-12-09 offers an opportunity to test the progression of pass sales and the assumption of bringing customers back through lift tickets. The available benchmark is a 6% decline in pass sales value including taxes through 2026-09-18 compared with the same period of 2025. Maintaining net income guidance of between $158 million and $233 million for fiscal year 2027 also matters, as it assumes a significant recovery in visits despite their not fully returning to fiscal year 2025 levels in the United States. Improving sales alongside unchanged guidance would provide stronger support for the operating case than improving sales accompanied by reduced earnings expectations.