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Home
Stocks
ArcelorMittal S.A.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall51
Balanced — near the middle of the marketTurnaroundF 6/9Better than 51% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
66
27.4x▼17.4xAround median
▸
Growth
27
3.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
19
3.6%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
60
1.3x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
45
1.16%▲0.18%Around median
▸
Momentum
79
99.3%▲1.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
73
5▲3Top tier
MT

MT ArcelorMittal S.A.

ArcelorMittal S.A. · NYSE
Market Open
65.19
▲ ⁦+0.71%⁩ (+0.46)
Market Cap$49.6B
Beta1.74
52w Low52w High
36.7079.68
Last Week
⁦-4.08%⁩
Last Month
⁦-17.21%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+3.13%⁩
Last Year
⁦+69.72%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$65⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Next year's earnings × ⁦15.4⁩, median of 10 companies
    ⁦$103⁩
    ⁦+58%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$85⁩–⁦$130⁩⁩
  • Analyst targets
    9 analysts
    ⁦$79⁩
    ⁦+21%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$62⁩–⁦$82⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+19%⁩

The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today

  • Value with no growth
    Today's after-tax operating profit, held flat forever, at a ⁦13.1%⁩ discount rate
    ⁦$12⁩
    ⁦−82%⁩

⁦82%⁩ of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.

2
methods value it above the price
0
methods near the price
0
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.28%⁩ as of ⁦2026-10-02⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$74.33
⁦+14.0%⁩
Current Price $65.19·Median $79.00
Low
$62.00
High
$82.00
Current price
$65.19
Average target
$74.33
Street summary

Target price average improves while ratings remain stable

Bullish tilt

ArcelorMittal’s consensus target price rose from 68.5 to 73 over the last 30 days, an increase of 4.5 or 6.57%, while the number of analysts remained at 9. There was no change over the last day or seven days, while the current price stands at 74.51, slightly above consensus and below the median of 75; this points to a previous improvement in the outlook without new upward momentum recently.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
63%
Mixed
Target dispersion
31%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
2
3
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.57 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Deutsche Bank
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    27.39x
    4.72x37.79x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    9.72x
    3.53x28.23x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.45x
    2.54x20.34x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -3.9%
    -22.4%9.6%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    3.6%
    -22.6%91.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -26.8%
    -253.8%188.2%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    8.5%
    7.0%57.7%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    3.6%
    -52.4%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.34x
    0.21x3.63x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.2%
    0.0%4.7%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    31.8%
    6.3%138.6%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-09-27Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is a globally integrated steel group whose operations are based on producing steel locally to serve domestic demand across Europe, North America, Brazil, and India, alongside mining in Liberia and joint ventures. Its portfolio includes flat steel, value-added products, electrical steel, and sustainable construction products, while it is expanding electric arc furnace capacity in Calvert to reduce reliance on imported steel slabs and serve advanced applications, including exposed automotive steel grades.

In Q2 FY2026 (the period ended 2026-06-30), revenue increased 5.2% year over year to $16.8 billion from $15.9 billion, while net income reached $683.0 million and diluted earnings per share were 0.9. Gross margin was 6.3% and operating margin was 6.3%, while operating cash flow reached $952.9 million. Operationally, the improvement came from across the steel segments, with strength in Europe, India, and joint ventures, alongside continued mining expansion in Liberia.

Over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30, the company recorded revenue of $62.8 billion, net income of $1.8 billion, and operating cash flow of $5.4 billion, but free cash flow was -$1.9 billion. In Q2 FY2026, it held $4.9 billion in cash and investments against total debt of $14.4 billion. The diluted share count declined 0.9% to 764.0 million shares from 771.0 million shares in the comparable quarter.

Key numbers

Q2 FY2026

Revenue
$16.8B
+5.2%vs a year earlier
Gross margin
6.3%
−93.7ppvs a year earlier
Operating margin
6.3%
−5.8ppvs a year earlier
Net income
$683.0M
−61.9%vs a year earlier
Diluted EPS
0.90
−61.4%vs a year earlier
Net cash
-$9.5B

Last 12 months to 2026-06-30

Revenue
$62.8B
Net income
$1.8B
2.9%of revenue
Free cash flow
-$1.9B
-3.1%of revenue

What's Driving the Stock

  • Revenue in Q2 FY2026 (the period ended 2026-06-30) increased 5.2% year over year to $16.8 billion, while net income improved to $683.0 million from $575.0 million in Q1 FY2026.
  • Operating cash flow shifted from -$9.0 million in Q1 FY2026 to $952.9 million in Q2, representing a significant improvement in the business's cash-generating capacity during the first half.
  • Management expects Q3 FY2026 shipments to be stable or higher than Q2, supported by a strong order book, the full operation of European blast furnaces, and the restart of capacity in Spain, Poland, and France.
  • Strategic projects are targeted to add $1.8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization beginning in FY2026; $300 million was achieved in the first half, with an additional $400 million expected in the second half.
  • The company is maintaining its target of shipping 18 million tonnes from Liberia in FY2026, which requires approximately 10 million tonnes in the second half following rainy-season delays, with part of the delay expected to be recovered in Q3.
  • The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization run rate of the sustainable solutions business exceeded $500 million, and the company is targeting $750 million over the medium term through renewable energy, sustainable construction products, and expansion in India, the United States, and Brazil.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case8 pts

  • +Operating cash flow reached $5.4 billion, equal to 299% of net income of $1.8 billion over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30, demonstrating strong cash support for accounting earnings.
  • +Revenue in Q2 FY2026 (the period ended 2026-06-30) grew 5.2% year over year to $16.8 billion, and net income increased to $683.0 million compared with $575.0 million in the previous quarter.
  • +The restart of capacity in Spain, Poland, and France and the operation of all European furnaces indicate management's confidence in the order book, with guidance for Q3 FY2026 shipments to be stable or higher despite the usual seasonal pattern.
  • +The company expects strategic growth projects to add $1.8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization beginning in FY2026, of which $300 million was achieved in the first half, with $400 million expected in the second half.
  • +The Liberia expansion targets shipments of 18 million tonnes in FY2026, and the company confirms that the required port, railway, and infrastructure are in place to support shipments of approximately 10 million tonnes in the second half.

What would change this view

When: 2026-11-05

  • Q3 FY2026 revenue at the $16.8 billion threshold

    ▲ Positive
    Exceeding $16.8 billion would strengthen the buying case by confirming continued demand growth and shipment strength following the restart of European capacity.
    ▼ Negative
    Falling below $16.8 billion would strengthen the selling case and weaken the thesis of continued operating momentum and successful recapture of market share from imports.
  • Q3 FY2026 operating margin at the 6.3% threshold

    ▲ Positive
    Exceeding 6.3% would strengthen the buying case by showing that fixed-cost absorption and pricing offset higher carbon costs.
    ▼ Negative
    Falling below 6.3% would strengthen the selling case and indicate that increased production did not translate into stronger operating profitability.
  • Q3 FY2026 operating cash flow at the $952.9 million threshold

    ▲ Positive

Valuation

The industry-multiple value is $105 within a range of $84 to $161, pricing ArcelorMittal like its peers based on next year's earnings and a median multiple of 16.2 for 11 companies. The median analyst target is $75 within a range of $62 to $82 for nine analysts, while the consensus average is $73; this method incorporates growth expectations and is inherently inclined toward optimism. The no-growth value is $12 at a discount rate of 13.0%, measuring what remains if current after-tax operating profit stays constant forever, while cash flow models are inherently inclined toward conservatism. The industry-multiple value and analyst targets converge relatively around continued growth, but they diverge clearly from the no-growth value because the former prices the company like its peers while the latter excludes any future growth; Deutsche Bank also raised its target from $67 to $70 on 2026-07-07 and then to $75 on 2026-07-31.

BuyAnalyst target: $73(+12.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ArcelorMittal's results in Q2 FY2026?

In Q2 FY2026 (the period ended 2026-06-30), revenue increased 5.2% year over year to $16.8 billion and net income reached $683.0 million. Operating margin reached 6.3% and operating cash flow reached $952.9 million. The company noted improvement across all steel segments and strength in Europe, India, and joint ventures.

How important is the recovery of the European business for MT?

Management expects Q3 FY2026 shipments to be stable or higher than Q2, contrary to the usual seasonal decline. The company restarted capacity in Spain, Poland, and France, and all its European furnaces became operational beginning in Q3. The positive case depends on lower imports due to the TRQ measure and improved fixed-cost absorption, while carbon costs will increase as production rises.

What do ArcelorMittal's liquidity and debt position look like?

The company held $4.9 billion in cash and investments against total debt of $14.4 billion in Q2 FY2026. Over the last 12 months through

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • +The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization run rate in sustainable solutions exceeded $500 million, while the business is targeting $750 million over the medium term from renewable energy and sustainable construction products.
  • +India continues to record strong demand, with the shipment run rate reaching a record level of approximately 8 million tonnes, alongside a plan to double current capacity and a long-term ambition to reach 40 million tonnes annually.
  • +Deutsche Bank raised its target to $70 on 2026-07-07 and then to $75 on 2026-07-31, while target changes over 90 days recorded no cuts versus two increases.
  • ▼ Selling Case8 pts

    • −Gross margin declined to 6.3% in Q2 FY2026 (the period ended 2026-06-30) from 100.0% in Q2 FY2025, a decrease of 93.7 percentage points.
    • −Operating margin declined to 6.3% in Q2 FY2026 from 12.1% in the comparable quarter, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points despite year-over-year revenue growth.
    • −Total debt reached $14.4 billion versus $4.9 billion in cash and investments in Q2 FY2026, limiting the financial margin of safety when funding capital-intensive growth projects.
    • −Free cash flow was -$1.9 billion over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30 despite operating cash flow reaching $5.4 billion, reflecting the weight of capital expenditure and strategic investments.
    • −Security conditions halted the path toward restarting production at the Kryvyi Rih plant, and the company expects to record a non-cash impairment loss of approximately $1 billion after four strikes over five weeks left 5 dead and 17 injured through 2026-09-25.
    • −The company plans to end steelmaking in Duisburg starting in October 2027, subject to Supervisory Board approval, affecting approximately 550 jobs out of nearly 800 jobs and highlighting cost and demand pressures on some European assets.
    • −The growth pillar in the EL7 score was 33 out of 100 within the steel industry, ranking 27 out of 39; it measures the strength of revenue and earnings expansion and places the company behind most of its peers.
    • −The quality pillar in the EL7 score was 23 out of 100 within the industry, ranking 31 out of 39; it measures the durability of profitability and the efficiency of converting operations into sustainable returns and places the company near the weaker end of the group.
    Exceeding $952.9 million would strengthen the buying case by confirming continued improvement in cash generation and the business's ability to fund investments.
    ▼ Negative
    Falling below $952.9 million would strengthen the selling case and put the ability of earnings to support cash flow to the test.
    2026-06-30
    , operating cash flow reached $5.4 billion, equal to 299% of net income of $1.8 billion. However, free cash flow was -$1.9 billion over the same period, making the execution of capital expenditure and its conversion into additional earnings an important focus.
    What are the main growth projects that could change MT's earnings?

    The company expects an additional $1.8 billion contribution to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from its strategic projects beginning in FY2026. Of this contribution, $300 million was achieved in the first half, and management expects an additional $400 million in the second half. The drivers include the Liberia expansion toward a shipment target of 18 million tonnes, increased capacity in India, the start-up of the first EAF in Calvert, and consideration of a second furnace.

    What is the financial impact of the events in Ukraine and the Duisburg plan?

    On 2026-09-25, ArcelorMittal informed the Ukrainian government that it could not safely and sustainably restart the Kryvyi Rih plant after four strikes over five weeks left 5 dead and 17 injured. The company expects a non-cash impairment loss of approximately $1 billion, while preserving the infrastructure to keep a restart as an available option. In Duisburg, it plans to end steelmaking starting in October 2027, subject to Supervisory Board approval, affecting approximately 550 jobs out of nearly 800 jobs.