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Stocks
Microsoft Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 6/9SafeCongress sellingBetter than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
25
27.8x▼18.2xBottom tier
▸
Growth
78
17.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
85
27.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
88
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
37
0.73%▼2.10%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
73
-1.6%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
42
30▲3Around median
MSFT

MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Open
493.72
▼ ⁦-1.20%⁩ (-5.98)
Market Cap$3.7T
Beta1.10
52w Low52w High
349.20553.72
Last Week
⁦-2.67%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.25%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+19.91%⁩
Last Year
⁦-0.26%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$493
Analyst target · 18 analysts
$535
⁦+9%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$490–$690⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$212
⁦-57%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.2⁩% discount · ⁦10⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$212–$535⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 18 analysts setting price target
$553.39
⁦+12.1%⁩
Current Price $493.72·Median $535.00
Low
$490.00
High
$690.00
Current price
$493.72
Average target
$553.39
Street summary

Limited Improvement Amid Divergent Analyst Outlook

The average target price rose to 553.39 from 547.74 over 7 days, and to 553.39 from 542.29 over 30 days, an increase of 1.03% and 2.05%, respectively, while the number of analysts remained at 18. The current range is 490–690, with a median of 535, reflecting clear dispersion among estimates, while the average exceeds the current price of 499.7.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.20
Buy
Analyst coverage
55
Buy conviction
95%
High
Rating activity · 30d
2↑ · 2↓
Mixed
Target dispersion
41%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time55 analysts rating
14
38
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.20 → 4.20
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Bank of America Securities
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-31
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    27.82x
    7.08x56.62x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    25.79x
    5.23x41.81x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.42x
    4.60x36.80x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    1.8%
    -56.3%10.3%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.8%
    -18.0%68.8%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    31.6%
    -157.8%193.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    67.9%
    13.2%79.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    27.0%
    -63.2%26.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.7%
    0.0%3.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    20.2%
    4.4%96.7%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    8.83
    -11.3113.68
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Microsoft Corporation sells software, cloud services, productivity, security, development, and personal computing tools. In fiscal Q4 2026, the Intelligent Cloud segment generated $39.3 billion in revenue, while Productivity and Business Processes generated approximately $37.8 billion, and More Personal Computing recorded approximately $12.9 billion. Monetization drivers include Azure, Microsoft 365, Copilot, GitHub, Dynamics 365, LinkedIn, Windows, Xbox, and advertising in Bing and Edge, with AI products increasingly shifting from seat-only pricing to a model combining seat-based and consumption-based pricing.

Microsoft's fiscal 2026 revenue reached approximately $331.8 billion, gross profit was $225.5 billion, net income was $133.7 billion, and earnings per share were $17.95. According to the earnings call, annual revenue grew 18%, Microsoft Cloud revenue exceeded $214 billion with growth of 27%, while Azure revenue exceeded $100 billion with growth of 41%. Annual operating income rose 21% to more than $155 billion, outpacing revenue growth.

In fiscal Q4 2026, revenue was $90.0 billion, gross profit was $60.5 billion, and net income was $35.8 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 67.2% and a net margin of approximately 39.8%. Intelligent Cloud represented approximately 43.7% of quarterly revenue, Productivity and Business Processes approximately 42.0%, and More Personal Computing approximately 14.3%. Quarterly revenue rose 18%, while the operating margin reached 45%, operating cash flow was $55.4 billion, and free cash flow was $19.6 billion after capital expenditures of $41 billion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Growth in Azure and other cloud services accelerated to 43% in fiscal Q4 2026, and management expects growth of approximately 45% in constant currency in fiscal Q1 2027, with demand continuing to exceed available capacity.
  • Commercial remaining performance obligations rose 84% to $678 billion in fiscal Q4 2026; approximately 30% is expected to be recognized over the following twelve months, while the portion to be recognized after that period increased 112%. Excluding OpenAI, this balance grew 25%, and the entire sequential increase came from customers outside advanced model companies.
  • Paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats exceeded 30 million, with net seat additions more than doubling compared with the previous quarter, and the number of customers with more than 50 thousand seats increased more than sevenfold year over year. Hundreds of customers also purchased millions of E7 seats within two months of its launch, and EY deployed the product to approximately 400 thousand employees.
  • GitHub Copilot users reached approximately 50 million in fiscal Q4 2026, and its revenue accelerated by more than 60% compared with the previous quarter following the introduction of usage-based pricing. In Foundry, the customer count reached 100 thousand and revenue more than doubled year over year, while Agent 365 recorded approximately 40 million agents during its first two months.
  • Microsoft expanded its infrastructure by adding 31 data centers across five continents during fiscal Q4 2026, bringing total additions for the fiscal year to 88 data centers, and added one gigawatt of capacity during the quarter. It also reduced the time required to bring new graphics processing units online by approximately 50% and quadrupled the productivity of Copilot workloads since the beginning of fiscal 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Microsoft combines annual revenue growth of 18% with operating income growth of 21% in fiscal 2026, alongside net income of $133.7 billion and an annual net margin of approximately 40.3%, reflecting a strong ability to convert cloud and AI expansion into profits.
  • +The $678 billion commercial obligations balance provides strong visibility into future revenue, and its growth does not depend entirely on advanced model companies; it grew 25% excluding OpenAI, and the sequential increase came from other customers.
  • +AI monetization is expanding across several interconnected layers: Azure, Foundry, Microsoft 365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot, and Agent 365. This is supported by tangible adoption indicators, including 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats, 50 million GitHub Copilot users, and 100 thousand Foundry customers.
  • +Internal improvements demonstrate the potential to offset infrastructure costs; Maia 200 delivers 30% better performance per dollar than the latest previous-generation hardware in the company's fleet, and MAI models achieve 40% better performance per watt on it. Microsoft also reduced graphics processing unit costs by 89% in Dynamics 365 and by up to 84% in PowerPoint for some applications of its models.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of $547.74 and a wide range of $400 to $690; the average is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $349.20–$553.72, while the highest target clearly exceeds that level. The price-to-earnings multiple of 25.1 times cited in the context of the July 30, 2026 results indicates that the valuation depends on continued Azure and Copilot growth and the conversion of high capital spending into cash flows, weighed against margin pressure, capacity risks, and declining Windows and Xbox businesses.

BuyAnalyst target: $547.74(+10.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results?

Quarterly revenue was $90.0 billion, up 18%, and net income was $35.8 billion. Intelligent Cloud led performance with revenue of $39.3 billion and growth of 32%, while Azure and other cloud services grew 43%. Productivity and Business Processes generated revenue of $37.8 billion, up 14%, while More Personal Computing revenue declined 4% to $12.9 billion.

Has Microsoft begun generating meaningful revenue from Copilot?

Microsoft 365 Copilot exceeded 30 million paid seats in fiscal Q4 2026, and net seat additions more than doubled compared with the previous quarter. The number of customers with more than 50 thousand seats increased more than sevenfold year over year, while EY deployed the E7 suite to approximately 400 thousand employees. In GitHub Copilot, the user count reached 50 million and revenue accelerated by more than 60% compared with the previous quarter after the implementation of usage-based pricing.

Why is Azure the most important driver for MSFT stock?

Azure revenue exceeded $100 billion in fiscal 2026 and grew 41% for the fiscal year. In fiscal Q4 2026, Azure and other cloud services grew 43%, and management expects growth of approximately 45% in constant currency in fiscal Q1 2027. The commercial obligations balance also reached $678 billion, but demand continuing to exceed available capacity makes the timing of bringing new infrastructure online a critical factor in how quickly demand is converted into revenue.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Meeting AI demand requires intensive capital spending; capital expenditures reached $41 billion in fiscal Q4 2026, and management expects more than $50 billion in fiscal Q1 2027 and additional annual growth. Although operating cash flow grew 30% to $55.4 billion, free cash flow was limited to $19.6 billion due to the increase in this spending.
  • −Margins face pressure from the sales mix shifting toward Azure, the expansion of AI infrastructure, and increased product usage; the company's gross margin declined to 67%, while the Microsoft Cloud margin fell to 65%. Management expects the operating margin to decline by less than one percentage point in fiscal 2027, alongside expected cost of revenue growth of 23% to 24% in fiscal Q1 2027.
  • −Azure's growth remains capacity-constrained because demand exceeds available supply, and management explained that quarterly growth rates may fluctuate based on the timing of capacity additions and the contract mix. Higher component prices have also increased infrastructure deployment costs, making the return on investment more sensitive to processor operating efficiency and the timing of data centers entering service.
  • −Some businesses are showing clear deceleration or contraction; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4% in fiscal Q4 2026, Xbox revenue declined 10%, and Windows OEM and Devices revenue decreased 7%. Management expects Windows OEM and Devices to decline in the low twenties range in fiscal Q1 2027 and in the high teens during fiscal 2027.
  • −Large contracts with OpenAI add volatility to bookings and the commercial obligations balance, according to management's warning about the comparison effect from contracts signed in the previous year. Although approximately 90% of Microsoft Cloud revenue in fiscal 2026 came from customers outside advanced model companies, including OpenAI obligations raised the balance's growth to 84%, compared with growth of 25% when excluding it.
  • −Net insider activity during the three months ended August 5, 2026, amounted to sales worth $17.3 million, with five sales and no purchases recorded. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data states otherwise.
What is the impact of AI spending on Microsoft's profits and cash flows?

Capital expenditures reached $41 billion in fiscal Q4 2026, with approximately two-thirds directed toward short-lived assets, particularly central processing units and graphics processing units. Operating cash flow reached $55.4 billion, up 30%, but free cash flow was $19.6 billion after the increase in capital spending. Management expects capital expenditures to exceed $50 billion in fiscal Q1 2027, while operating margins remain approximately stable year over year in that quarter.

What are the main weaknesses outside Azure in Microsoft's results?

More Personal Computing revenue declined 4% to $12.9 billion in fiscal Q4 2026, while the segment's operating income fell 14% and its margin declined to 21%. Xbox revenue decreased 10%, while Windows OEM and Devices revenue fell 7% due to weakness in the PC market and a more difficult comparison with the impact of the end of Windows 10 support. For fiscal Q1 2027, management expects Windows OEM and Devices to decline in the low twenties range and Xbox content and services to decline in the mid-single-digit range.

What is Microsoft's outlook for fiscal Q1 2027?

Management expects total revenue of between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion, representing growth of between 16% and 17%. It expects Intelligent Cloud revenue of between $40.95 billion and $41.25 billion and Azure growth of approximately 45% in constant currency, compared with revenue of between $36.7 billion and $37.0 billion for Productivity and Business Processes. In contrast, it expects cost of revenue of between $29.6 billion and $29.8 billion, operating expenses of between $16.8 billion and $16.9 billion, and capital expenditures exceeding $50 billion.