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Home
Stocks
Morgan Stanley
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall65
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 5/9Better than 65% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
41
16.3x▲17.6xAround median
▸
Growth
57
13.0%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
89
——Top tier
▸
Safety
11
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
50
1.98%▼2.15%Around median
▸
Momentum
84
39.6%▲2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
63
16▲3Around median
MS

MS Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley · NYSE
Market Open
205.05
▲ ⁦+1.22%⁩ (+2.47)
Market Cap$319.4B
Beta1.21
52w Low52w High
151.84232.25
Last Week
⁦-4.35%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.75%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.85%⁩
Last Year
⁦+31.60%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$203
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$242
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$215–$260⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$239.50
⁦+16.8%⁩
Current Price $205.05·Median $241.50
Low
$215.00
High
$260.00
Current price
$205.05
Average target
$239.50
Street summary

Consensus Stability Amid a Broader Analyst Base

The consensus price target remained unchanged at 239.5 over 1, 7, and 30 days, while the number of analysts also stayed at 7 compared with the August 19 snapshot. However, the count increased by two analysts compared with the September 11 and 17 snapshots, broadening the monitoring base without changing the consensus level. The range is between 215 and 260, while the median is 241.5, reflecting a clear divergence among estimates compared with the current price of 202.52.

As of 2026-09-18
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.40
Hold
Analyst coverage
25
Buy conviction
44%
Mixed
Target dispersion
22%
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
2
9
12
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.32 → 3.40
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    HSBC
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-07-20
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.33x
    3.11x24.86x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    16.41x
    2.72x21.78x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.03x
    3.03x24.25x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -5.8%
    -17.7%19.3%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    13.0%
    -36.8%103.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    40.0%
    -99.6%194.1%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    59.2%
    23.3%98.3%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    4.3%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    7.60x
    0.25x7.21x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.0%
    0.6%9.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    33.6%
    9.8%98.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-15 data

Company Overview

Morgan Stanley operates through three interconnected revenue engines: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. Institutional Securities earns income from investment banking advisory, underwriting, equities and fixed-income trading, and financing, while Wealth Management relies on asset-based and advisory fees, transactions, and net interest income through financial advisors, E*TRADE channels, and employee stock plans. Investment Management charges fees on assets under management and benefits from solutions such as Parametric, alternative investments, and fixed-income strategies.

In Q2 FY2026, EDGAR data showed revenue of $34.5 billion, net income of $5.6 billion, and earnings per share of $3.46, compared with revenue of $29.4 billion, net income of $3.5 billion, and earnings per share of $2.13 in Q2 FY2025. In the earnings presentation dated July 15, 2026, the company reported record revenue of $21.3 billion and CVA-adjusted earnings per share of $3.46, with a return on tangible equity of 26.6% and an efficiency ratio of 65% for the first half of FY2026.

At the business-mix level in Q2 FY2026, Institutional Securities recorded record revenue of $11 billion and pretax profit of $4.3 billion, driven by equities revenue of $6.3 billion, fixed-income revenue of $2.5 billion, and investment banking revenue of $2.4 billion. Wealth Management generated record revenue of $8.9 billion, pretax profit of $2.7 billion, and a pretax margin of 30.5%, while Investment Management revenue increased 6% year over year to $1.6 billion and its assets under management reached $2 trillion.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Wealth Management added record net new assets of $148 billion in Q2 FY2026, slightly more than half of which came from stock-plan inflows linked to IPOs of late-stage private companies; a report dated August 2, 2026, also cited $74 billion of inflows supported by the SpaceX IPO and other new issuances.
  • Investment banking revenue increased 58% year over year to $2.4 billion in Q2 FY2026, including $851 million from equity underwriting, $788 million from fixed-income underwriting, and $798 million from advisory, as business pipelines broadened geographically and across sectors.
  • The equities business recorded record revenue of $6.3 billion in Q2 FY2026 due to growth across products and regions, including higher prime brokerage client balances, strong activity in Asia, and increased market volumes in the Americas.
  • Wealth Management client assets reached $8 trillion, fee-based assets reached $3 trillion, and fee-based asset flows increased to $39 billion in Q2 FY2026; the number of client relationships also reached 20 million, expanding the base for converting workplace program and E*TRADE users into advisory services.
  • Morgan Stanley Research believes global capital spending on AI data centers could reach $850 billion in 2026, $1.3 trillion in 2027, and $1.5 trillion in 2028, supporting potential demand for capital raising, financing, and advisory services, while management emphasized that it had not specified Morgan Stanley's share of this spending.
  • The company strengthened its capacity to invest and return capital after accumulating $18 billion of CET1 capital over ten quarters and ending Q2 FY2026 with a standardized CET1 ratio of 14.8% and a capital surplus of at least 300 basis points; it also repurchased $1.5 billion of shares and raised the quarterly dividend 15% to $1.15 per share.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The integration of investment banking with Wealth Management gives Morgan Stanley a defined path for converting IPOs and corporate relationships into long-term assets; in Q2 FY2026, slightly more than half of the $148 billion in net new assets came from IPO-related stock-plan inflows.
  • +The company combines strong growth with high profitability, as earnings per share reached $3.46 and return on tangible equity reached 26.6% in Q2 FY2026, while Wealth Management achieved a pretax margin of 30.5%.
  • +Revenue diversification across equities, which generated $6.3 billion; fixed income, which generated $2.5 billion; investment banking, which generated $2.4 billion; and Wealth Management, which generated $8.9 billion in Q2 FY2026, provides more than one channel for benefiting from client and market activity.
  • +The 14.8% CET1 ratio and capital surplus exceeding 300 basis points provide flexibility to finance clients, invest in technology and products, and return capital without requiring the company to rely on a major acquisition to achieve growth.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $239.5 and a target range of $215 to $260. The average is only about 3.1% above the top of the 52-week range of $232.25, while the highest target is about 12% above that peak and the lowest target falls within the 52-week range of $145.66–$232.25. This range reflects optimism that Wealth Management flows will continue and capital markets will recover, but it leaves clear sensitivity to the possibility that trading and underwriting revenue will retreat from record Q2 FY2026 levels to lower levels.

BuyAnalyst target: $239.5(+16.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Morgan Stanley's results in Q2 FY2026?

Morgan Stanley reported record revenue of $21.3 billion and CVA-adjusted earnings per share of $3.46 in its July 15, 2026 call, while EDGAR data showed revenue of $34.5 billion and net income of $5.6 billion. Institutional Securities recorded $11 billion in revenue, including $6.3 billion from equities, $2.5 billion from fixed income, and $2.4 billion from investment banking. Wealth Management also generated $8.9 billion in revenue and a pretax margin of 30.5%, supported by higher assets and retail investor activity.

Why were Wealth Management flows high in Q2 FY2026?

Net new assets in Wealth Management reached a record $148 billion, slightly more than half of which came from stock-plan inflows linked to IPOs of late-stage private companies. Management explained that Morgan Stanley serves about 70% of the 100 largest unicorn companies by market capitalization within its workplace programs channel, linking IPOs to a client-acquisition path. On August 2, 2026, a report cited $74 billion of inflows supported by the SpaceX IPO and other new issuances, while the company is focused on converting these relationships into advisory services and fee-based assets.

How important is the Asia business to Morgan Stanley's results?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
The surge in net new assets depends partly on IPO timing; IPO-related stock-plan inflows represented slightly more than half of the $148 billion in net new assets in Q2 FY2026, and management acknowledged that these flows may rise or fall between quarters depending on offering timing and employee share-vesting schedules.
  • −Institutional Securities' record results came in an environment of active markets and elevated client engagement, so equities revenue of $6.3 billion and investment banking revenue of $2.4 billion could decline if global growth slows, volatility turns into broad risk aversion, or IPO and merger-and-acquisition markets weaken.
  • −The workplace Wealth Management channel faces competition from smaller registered investment advisors using more aggressive pricing, while Morgan Stanley's success depends on retaining corporate employees after IPOs and converting part of its 20 million relationships into advisory accounts and fee-based assets.
  • −Execution costs increased and strategic investments in infrastructure and AI-enabled technologies continued during the first half of FY2026; despite Wealth Management's 30.5% margin, management emphasized that it is not targeting the maximization of quarterly margins and did not raise its strategic targets during the year.
  • −Management identified geopolitics, supply-chain fragmentation, and energy and technology bottlenecks among the factors that could alter the AI spending cycle and client activity; spending estimates of $850 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027 also remain subject to changes in chip innovation, government intervention, and data-center construction locations.
  • −The average analyst target of $239.5 is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $232.25, so the target valuation assumes continued earnings and flow strength after a record-setting quarter; normalization in trading or underwriting activity could reduce the justification for reaching the upper-end targets.
  • All regions contributed to year-over-year Institutional Securities revenue growth in Q2 FY2026, and the global equities business recorded record revenue of $6.3 billion. Prime brokerage revenue increased with higher average client balances and strong activity in Asia, and management described its businesses in Japan, India, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong as important parts of its regional presence. Management also said its collaboration with MUFG, which owns 25% of Morgan Stanley according to the call, expanded to include research, equities content, and foreign exchange.

    How could Morgan Stanley benefit from the AI spending cycle?

    Morgan Stanley Research estimated in the July 15, 2026 call that data-center spending would reach about $850 billion in 2026, $1.3 trillion in 2027, and $1.5 trillion in 2028. The company can participate as an advisor, financier, underwriter, and capital allocator across debt and equity markets and private and public financing. However, management declined to specify the percentage of spending the company could intermediate and emphasized that the scale and timing of the cycle could change due to chip innovation, energy, supply chains, and government intervention.

    What are the main risks to monitor for MS stock?

    Slightly more than half of the $148 billion in net new assets in Q2 FY2026 was linked to post-IPO stock-plan inflows, making offering timing and vesting schedules influential in quarterly results. Record equities revenue of $6.3 billion and investment banking revenue of $2.4 billion also depend on continued client, market, and merger-and-acquisition activity. Additional risks include competition from smaller investment advisors in the workplace programs channel, higher execution and technology investment costs, and geopolitical and supply-chain risks mentioned by management in the July 15, 2026 call.

    What is Morgan Stanley's capital and distribution position?

    Morgan Stanley ended Q2 FY2026 with a standardized CET1 ratio of 14.8% after adding $18 billion to CET1 capital over ten quarters. Management estimated the capital surplus at no less than 300 basis points, allowing the company to finance client activity, invest in the business, and maintain a margin of safety through the cycle. During the same quarter, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of common shares and raised the quarterly dividend by 15% to $1.15 per share.