| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 16 | — | 17.4x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 9 | -27.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 14 | -37.3% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 47 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 28 | 0.00% | 0.18% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 100 | 487.7% | 1.3% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 77 | 17 | 3 | Top tier |
10-year US Treasury yield 5.31% as of 2026-10-05. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a biotechnology company that relies on a messenger RNA platform to develop vaccines and therapeutics. Its commercial revenue comes from its infectious disease portfolio, including Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE for COVID-19 and mRESVIA for respiratory syncytial virus, alongside supply contracts and strategic partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. The company is seeking to diversify its revenue sources through mFLUSIVA for influenza and mCOMBRIAX, a combination vaccine for influenza and COVID-19, while investing in Intismeran and treatments for cancer and rare diseases that have not yet become sources of commercial revenue.
In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $145 million, up 2% from the comparable period and above the company's guidance range, while gross profit was $52 million, with a gross margin of approximately 35.9%. The geographic mix consisted of 60% from the United States and 40% from international markets, while international markets accounted for 69% of first-half revenue due to long-term strategic partnerships. Cost of sales declined 22% to $93 million as a result of improved manufacturing efficiency and lower costs for unutilized production capacity.
The company remained far from profitability in Q2 FY2026, recording a net loss of $782 million and a loss per share of $1.97, despite a 5% improvement in the net loss from the comparable period. Research and development expenses were $651 million, down 7%, and selling, general, and administrative expenses were $216 million, down 6%. Moderna ended the quarter with $6.9 billion in cash and investments, compared with $7.5 billion at the end of Q1 FY2026, as a result of funding operations and investing in the development pipeline.
The analyst consensus on MRNA is Neutral, with an average price target of $114.82, but the wide disparity between the low target of $25 and the high target of $245 reveals broad disagreement over the potential value of the oncology pipeline and new vaccines. The average target is below the 52-week high of $176.66, and no meaningful price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the losses; therefore, valuation remains based on the likelihood that approvals and clinical data will translate into revenue and profitability, while accounting for the August 20, 2026 decline associated with market disappointment over the cancer vaccine data.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Commercial revenue comes from the vaccine portfolio, including Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE for COVID-19 and mRESVIA for respiratory syncytial virus, in addition to supply contracts and international strategic partnerships. In H1 FY2026, 69% of revenue came from international markets, driven by long-term partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. In Q2 FY2026, the geographic mix was 60% from the United States and 40% internationally. U.S. COVID-19 vaccination rates remain the largest variable in revenue guidance, so the diversification plan depends on mFLUSIVA, mCOMBRIAX, and products in the development pipeline.
On August 6, 2026, the FDA approved mFLUSIVA for adults aged 50 and older, making it the first mRNA-based influenza vaccine in the United States. Moderna aims to make it available to eligible groups during the 2026-2027 influenza season, opening a new commercial channel alongside COVID-19 vaccines and mRESVIA. FY2026 revenue guidance had assumed no revenue from mFLUSIVA, so its contribution was not included in the projected growth of up to 10%. The financial impact of the approval will depend on pricing, coverage, and actual uptake, figures that were not provided in the available information.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Moderna is developing the Intismeran program in partnership with Merck through nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies covering several tumor types. Enrollment in the Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma study was complete, and five-year follow-up from the Phase 2 study showed continued clinical benefit alongside the generation of T cells specific to neoantigens. The company did not disclose the statistical analysis plan or early success thresholds and explained that the product could retain commercial value even if the study required final analysis. On August 20, 2026, the market reaction demonstrated high sensitivity to the program when the stock fell 25% following data that did not fully meet investors' expectations.
Moderna ended Q2 FY2026 with $6.9 billion in cash and investments, down from $7.5 billion at the end of Q1 FY2026. It expects to end FY2026 with between $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion, without assuming an additional draw from an unused $0.9 billion credit facility. On August 28, 2026, it also priced $2.6 billion of convertible notes due in 2032 to fund purposes including oncology and debt repayment. In contrast, it recorded a net loss of $782 million in the quarter and paid $950 million in July 2026 related to a legal settlement.
Management expects FY2026 revenue growth of up to 10%, with an annual mix of approximately 50% from the United States and 50% from international markets. It lowered its cost of sales estimate to $1.7 billion and its research and development estimate to $2.9 billion, while keeping selling, general, and administrative expenses near $1 billion. Cash cost guidance is approximately $4 billion, while expected capital expenditures range between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion. This guidance assumes a potential decline in COVID-19 vaccination rates and does not include revenue from mFLUSIVA or mCOMBRIAX.
