The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 10 | — | 20.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 14 | -30.0% | 6.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 12 | -42.4% | 6.6% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 45 | 1.6x | 0.7x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 75 | — | 2.02% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 75 | 72.8% | 4.1% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 58 | 18 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Moderna, Inc., listed on NASDAQ under the ticker MRNA, is one of the world's leading biotechnology companies pioneering the development of therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. The company generates its revenues primarily from the sale of COVID-19 vaccines such as Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mRESVIA, in addition to revenues from long-term strategic partnerships with governments such as the UK, Canada, and Australia to secure respiratory vaccine supplies.
During the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company recorded total revenues of $389.0 million (while the revenue mentioned in the earnings call was $400 million thanks to UK partnership deliveries), compared to $100 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. However, the company incurred a gross loss of -$566.0 million and a sharp net loss of $1.3 billion on a GAAP basis (with an EPS of -$3.4), directly impacted by its recognition of an $878 million litigation settlement charge within the cost of sales. In terms of geographic sales distribution, international markets accounted for approximately 80% of total revenues thanks to strategic partnership contracts, while the US market contributed the remaining 20%.
Analyst consensus currently rates Moderna stock as a Hold, with an average price target of $40.29, and analyst estimates ranging from a low of $33 to a high of $49. Given the stock's 52-week trading range of $22.28 to $67.74, the stock currently trades below the consensus analyst price target, reflecting prevailing market caution regarding the pace of vaccine sales recovery and pending litigation costs.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-06-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Moderna now has four officially approved products in its commercial portfolio following recent developments in 2026. This portfolio includes the COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE), the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine mRESVIA approved in the US, EU, and Canada, as well as the new combination influenza and COVID-19 vaccine mCOMBRIAX, which recently received European Commission approval for adults aged 50 and older. The company plans to submit annual strain updates for these vaccines to ensure continued efficacy and expand its share in the European respiratory market, which is valued at approximately $2 billion.
The litigation settlement resulted in an exceptional cost of sales of $878 million during the first quarter of 2026, deepening net losses to $1.3 billion on a GAAP basis. Under the agreement, Moderna will pay a lump sum of $950 million in the third quarter of 2026, with a potential additional payment of up to $1.3 billion if the company loses its appeal regarding the government contractor immunity defense under Section 1498. However, this settlement did not affect the first-quarter cash balance as the actual payment will be made later, leaving the company with a strong cash balance of $7.5 billion.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set August 5, 2026, as the target action date (PDUFA) for the seasonal influenza vaccine mRNA-1010. This vaccine represents a significant opportunity to become Moderna's fifth commercially approved product, enhancing the diversification of its portfolio away from sole reliance on COVID-19 vaccines. The company is currently engaged in routine discussions with the FDA vaccine review team to ensure all remaining requirements and questions are addressed ahead of this critical date to pave the way for commercial launch.
Moderna, in collaboration with its partner Merck, has launched a new Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate Intismeran as a monotherapy for patients with high-risk Stage I non-small cell lung cancer. This step is supported by excellent safety data and strong efficacy demonstrated by the therapy, alongside anticipation for the presentation of the 5-year long-term follow-up results for adjuvant melanoma treatment at the ASCO conference in June 2026. The company also continues to enroll patients in other trials, including renal cell carcinoma and muscle-invasive bladder cancer, which are approaching their interim analyses.
Moderna's management confirms its annual revenue growth guidance for 2026 of up to 10%, supported by international government partnerships and the expansion of mNEXSPIKE distribution, with revenue expected to be split evenly at 50% for the US market and 50% for international markets. On the expense side, the company expects total operating costs of $4.9 billion and adjusted cash costs of $4.2 billion (excluding the $0.9 billion litigation settlement charge). The company also estimates ending 2026 with a cash and investment balance between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion without needing to draw any amounts from its $0.9 billion undrawn credit facility.