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Stocks
Merck & Co., Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall75
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 4/9SafeBetter than 75% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
28
114.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
41
4.6%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
81
5.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
62
3.3x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
37
2.33%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
94
55.1%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
72
12▲3Top tier
MRK

MRK Merck & Co., Inc.

Merck & Co., Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
143.94
▼ ⁦-0.54%⁩ (-0.78)
Market Cap$357.4B
Beta0.21
52w Low52w High
77.58155.19
Last Week
⁦-5.08%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.95%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+27.87%⁩
Last Year
⁦+70.92%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$144
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$161
⁦+12%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$105–$180⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$88
⁦-39%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$88–$161⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$158.12
⁦+9.9%⁩
Current Price $143.94·Median $161.00
Low
$105.00
High
$180.00
Current price
$143.94
Average target
$158.12
Street summary

MRK price target rises over 30 days while valuations remain stable

Bullish tilt

The average price target for MRK rose to 158.12, an increase of 12.02% over 30 days from 141.15, despite declining 0.83% over the last day and rising 1.18% over the last seven days. The average and median, at 158.12 and 161 respectively, remain above the current price of 143.935, reflecting a more positive outlook overall, but the target range between 105 and 180 indicates clear divergence among analysts.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+12.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.89
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
71%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 1↓
Mixed
Target dispersion
52%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
5
15
8
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.61 → 3.89
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    HSBC
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    Guggenheim
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    114.23x
    3.94x44.30x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    16.55x
    4.64x37.16x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    27.70x
    3.77x30.13x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.5%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.6%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -80.6%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    73.0%
    12.8%90.7%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    5.6%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.29x
    0.60x5.10x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.3%
    0.0%3.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    264.1%
    7.4%76.0%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.90
    -38.7417.53
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Merck & Co., Inc. develops and markets medicines and vaccines, deriving the largest portion of its business presented in fiscal Q2 2026 from oncology, alongside vaccines and infectious diseases, cardiovascular, metabolic and respiratory diseases, and animal health. The KEYTRUDA franchise remains the core revenue driver; the KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX family generated sales of $8.4 billion, while newer products such as WINREVAIR, OHTUVAYRE, CAPVAXIVE, and WELIREG helped broaden the growth mix.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue reached $16.6 billion, up 5% or 4% excluding currency effects, while gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $12.2 billion, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of about 73.5%. The KEYTRUDA family accounted for approximately 51% of company revenue, and KEYTRUDA QLEX alone generated sales of $463 million, while animal health recorded growth of 5%, driven by 6% growth in livestock products and 5% growth in companion animal products.

EDGAR data recorded a net loss of $1.3 billion and negative earnings per share of $0.54 in fiscal Q2 2026, while non-GAAP results showed a loss of $0.13 per share. Profitability was affected by the $5.7 billion Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition charge, or $2.31 per share, and by an increase in operating expenses to $12.6 billion, while non-GAAP gross margin declined 1.1 percentage points to 81.1% due to higher inventory provisions.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Merck and Moderna announced positive phase 3 results on August 19, 2026, for personalized mRNA-based therapy with KEYTRUDA in melanoma, as the study met its primary endpoint of extending recurrence-free survival compared with KEYTRUDA alone; Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight on August 20, 2026, and set a price target of $179.
  • LIPFENDRA received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval in fiscal Q2 2026 as the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor and demonstrated reductions of up to 60% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol when added to a statin. Product orders have begun, but management expects building insurance coverage to take time, while regulatory reviews continue in the European Union and China.
  • New products continue to expand the revenue base: WINREVAIR sales rose 75% to $588 million, WELIREG rose 67% to $271 million, and CAPVAXIVE rose 40% to $184 million, while OHTUVAYRE sales reached approximately $204 million in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • Clinical results supported the pipeline; sac-TMT delivered statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in overall survival and progression-free survival in the TroFuse-005 study, and tulisokibart met the primary endpoint in a phase 3 ulcerative colitis study. The ISLEND-1 and ISLEND-2 studies also demonstrated maintenance of viral suppression with once-weekly islatravir plus lenacapavir.
  • Merck raised and narrowed its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to between $66.3 billion and $67.3 billion, representing growth of between 2% and 4%, and set non-GAAP earnings-per-share guidance at between $2.66 and $2.76. The guidance includes an upfront charge of $2.31 per share for the acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals and approximately $0.12 per share for the development of MK-4208 and transaction financing.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Merck combines growth from its established oncology franchise with contributions from newer products; the KEYTRUDA family grew 4% to $8.4 billion, alongside growth in WINREVAIR, WELIREG, and CAPVAXIVE ranging from 40% to 75% in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • +Clinical developments support revenue diversification opportunities, particularly the phase 3 success of personalized mRNA-based therapy with KEYTRUDA, the positive results for sac-TMT in endometrial cancer, and tulisokibart in ulcerative colitis.
  • +LIPFENDRA represents a new expansion opportunity following its approval as the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor, with reductions of up to 60% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and ongoing regulatory reviews in the European Union and China.
  • +Management is targeting a commercial opportunity exceeding $70 billion from more than 20 new products and said that several key programs, including sac-TMT, I-DXd, and tulisokibart, delivered positive results earlier than expected.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $154.93 with a Buy consensus, while the target range extends from $105 to $180, a wide spread reflecting differing estimates of pipeline value and regulatory risks. The average target is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $156.92, while Morgan Stanley's $179 target exceeds it following the cancer vaccine results; by contrast, the low target of $105 highlights the impact of fiscal Q2 2026 losses, Medicare pressures, and revenue dependence on KEYTRUDA.

BuyAnalyst target: $154.93(+7.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why is KEYTRUDA important to MRK stock?

The KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX family generated sales of $8.4 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, up 4%, and accounted for approximately 51% of Merck's revenue. KEYTRUDA QLEX alone generated sales of $463 million, with adoption improving after a permanent reimbursement code was established in April 2026. Growth came from use in earlier-stage cancers, breast and cervical cancers, and the combination with Padcev in urothelial cancer. By contrast, management expects KEYTRUDA growth in the United States to moderate as several indications approach peak penetration.

What do the Merck and Moderna cancer vaccine results mean for MRK's future?

The companies announced on August 19, 2026, the phase 3 success of personalized mRNA-based therapy with KEYTRUDA in patients with high-risk melanoma. The combination met the primary endpoint of extending recurrence-free survival compared with KEYTRUDA treatment alone. The results prompted Morgan Stanley on August 20, 2026, to upgrade the stock to Overweight and set a price target of $179. The clinical results remain an important catalyst, but the information provided does not include regulatory approval or sales for this therapy.

Have Merck's new products begun reducing its dependence on KEYTRUDA?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Merck is highly dependent on the KEYTRUDA franchise, which, at approximately $8.4 billion, represented about 51% of fiscal Q2 2026 revenue; management also expects its U.S. sales growth to moderate as several key indications approach peak penetration and acknowledges an exclusivity-loss period during which it expects a decline before returning to growth.
  • −Profitability came under clear pressure in fiscal Q2 2026; EDGAR recorded a net loss of $1.3 billion and negative earnings per share of $0.54, and the results included the $5.7 billion Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition charge, while non-GAAP gross margin declined 1.1 percentage points due to inventory provisions.
  • −Although fiscal Q2 2026 revenue grew 5%, fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance is limited to a range of 2% to 4%. Management also expects OHTUVAYRE sales in fiscal Q3 2026 to be affected by the reversal of specialty pharmacy purchases recorded in the previous quarter, along with the nonrecurrence of an approximately $250 million benefit from the timing of wholesaler purchases of KEYTRUDA in fiscal Q3 2025.
  • −A federal court dismissed Merck's lawsuit against the Medicare drug price negotiation program on August 25, 2026, reducing the company's ability to block the program through legal action and exposing noncompliant manufacturers to high excise taxes.
  • −The development pipeline is not without setbacks; the tulisokibart study in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease did not meet its primary endpoint, while LIPFENDRA does not yet have cardiovascular outcomes data, with its ongoing study scheduled to read out in 2029.
  • −Net insider transactions during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 13, 2026, were approximately negative $20.8 million, with no purchases recorded versus 11 sales. This remains a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data establish otherwise.
  • They show growing contributions, but these remain much smaller than KEYTRUDA's $8.4 billion in sales in fiscal Q2 2026. WINREVAIR generated sales of $588 million, up 75%, WELIREG approximately $271 million, up 67%, and CAPVAXIVE approximately $184 million, up 40%. OHTUVAYRE sales reached approximately $204 million, while the company began launching IDVYNSO and LIPFENDRA received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval. Diversification is therefore progressing operationally, but revenue concentration in KEYTRUDA remains high.

    Why did Merck record a loss in fiscal Q2 2026?

    EDGAR data showed a net loss of $1.3 billion and negative earnings per share of $0.54 in fiscal Q2 2026. The results included a $5.7 billion charge related to the acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals, equivalent to an impact of $2.31 per share within non-GAAP results. The acquisition added MK-4208, a therapy in development for certain patients with chronic myeloid leukemia. Operating expenses also rose to $12.6 billion due to the transaction and investment in launches and the research pipeline.

    What are Merck's key targets and guidance for fiscal 2026?

    Merck expects fiscal 2026 revenue of between $66.3 billion and $67.3 billion, representing growth of between 2% and 4%, including a positive currency effect of approximately one percentage point. It expects non-GAAP earnings per share of between $2.66 and $2.76, with a midpoint of $2.71. The guidance assumes a gross margin of approximately 81% and operating expenses of between $42 billion and $42.7 billion. The figures include the upfront Terns charge of $2.31 per share and approximately $0.12 per share for the development of MK-4208 and transaction financing.

    What are the key regulatory and clinical risks facing MRK?

    On August 25, 2026, a federal court dismissed Merck's lawsuit against the Medicare drug price negotiation program, with high excise taxes applying to noncompliant manufacturers. Clinically, the tulisokibart study in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease did not meet its primary endpoint, despite the success of the phase 3 ulcerative colitis study. LIPFENDRA demonstrated reductions of up to 60% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol but does not yet have cardiovascular outcomes data. The company expects its cardiovascular outcomes study to read out in 2029.