| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 84 | 16.3x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 65 | 15.0% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 78 | 23.3% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 70 | 1.5x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 80 | 0.83% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 99 | 107.4% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 42 | 11 | 3 | Around median |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
18% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, listed on NYSE under the ticker MPC, operates in oil refining and fuel marketing through an integrated U.S. network across the Gulf Coast, Midcontinent, and West Coast. Its refining business generates profits by processing crude oil and selling gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, while optimizing its crude and product mix to benefit from margin differences between markets. Its midstream operations through MPLX add a source of cash flow from gas and natural gas liquids infrastructure, while its renewable diesel business includes Martinez and Dickinson assets, whose profitability is affected by feedstock prices and regulatory credit values.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, revenue reached $52.0 billion, up 53.8% year over year, with net income of $5.1 billion and diluted earnings per share of $17.73. Gross margin rose to 17.2% versus 11.2% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025, and operating margin rose to 14.1% versus 6.5%. Operating cash flow reached $10.3 billion, but part of the strong liquidity reflected a working capital contribution, rather than recurring operating performance alone.
Refining and marketing was the largest driver of results in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, generating approximately $6.7 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, compared with $8.5 billion for the group. Refineries operated at a utilization rate of 94%, reaching 100% on the Gulf Coast, and the refining margin capture rate reached 112%. In other businesses, adjusted earnings for the midstream segment increased by $137 million year over year, and those for the renewable diesel segment increased by approximately $277 million, with Martinez utilization reaching 95%.
Q2 FY2026
Last 12 months to 2026-06-30
When: 2026-11-03
Refinery utilization at the guidance threshold of 94%
Crude oil throughput at the guidance threshold of 2.8 million barrels per day
Operating margin compared with the 14.1% level recorded in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026
The indicative value based on the industry multiple, classified as low confidence, is $780 within a range of $617 to $1043. It values next year's earnings using a median multiple of 16.2 across 15 companies, while the discounted cash flow model yields $516 within a range of $411 to $685 and values expected cash flow at a discount rate of 8.9%, following analysts' earnings estimates. The median analyst price target is $448 within a range of $321 to $472 across 5 analysts, reflecting their growth expectations, while the no-growth value is $355 and assumes that current after-tax operating profit remains constant forever at a discount rate of 8.9%. The methods agree on values above the no-growth reference, but diverge clearly: valuing earnings in line with industry peers produces the highest value, followed by expected cash flow and then analyst targets, highlighting the effects of growth assumptions, the multiple, and earnings-to-cash conversion. Analyst targets are inherently optimistic and the cash flow model is inherently conservative, but the cash flow model's value here exceeds the median target, so a method's tendency does not imply a fixed ranking of results for this company.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-09; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Marathon Petroleum combines refining and marketing, midstream operations through MPLX, and renewable diesel at Martinez and Dickinson. In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, refining and marketing generated approximately $6.7 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, versus $8.5 billion for the group, demonstrating refining's substantial weight. However, adjusted midstream segment earnings increased by $137 million year over year, and on 2026-08-04, management expected MPLX's annual distributions to grow by 12.5% in fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027, providing support for cash flow through the refining cycle.
MPC benefited from a strong margin environment, but its results for quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, also included refinery utilization of 94% and margin capture of 112%. The Robinson project enables approximately 10,000 additional barrels per day of jet fuel, and the network can process more than 100 types of crude oil to optimize input costs and the product mix. However, on 2026-08-04, management explained that results also benefited from strategic reserve crude oil and the settlement of derivatives-related effects, so all sources of outperformance cannot be considered equally recurring.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Turnaround expenses compared with guidance of $290 million
Share repurchases reached $4.9 billion over the last 12 months through 2026-06-30, compared with free cash flow of $12.9 billion. Diluted shares declined to 290.0 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, down 5.5% year over year, but total debt reached $32.8 billion versus cash and investments of $7.8 billion. On 2026-08-04, management confirmed that repurchases remain a priority while considering the timing of liquidity and the obligation to return exchanged crude oil, so the ability to sustain them depends on actual cash flows and working capital requirements.
For quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, management expected throughput of 2.8 million barrels per day at a utilization rate of 94%, with turnaround expenses of approximately $290 million. The announcement expected on 2026-11-03 tests the company's ability to maintain operations while carrying out work on conversion units on the Gulf Coast and in the Midcontinent. The operating margin of 14.1% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, ended 2026-06-30, remains a benchmark for monitoring profitability, particularly after a news report dated 2026-10-09 expected the company's earnings to exceed the previous quarter's results.
The industry-multiple value is $780, an indicative, low-confidence figure that applies a median multiple of 16.2 to next year's earnings across a group of 15 companies. The discounted cash flow model yields $516 at a discount rate of 8.9%, while the median target across 5 analysts is $448; these methods assess expected cash flow and growth expectations from different perspectives. The no-growth value is $355 because it assumes that current after-tax operating profit remains constant forever, so the divergence reflects different assumptions and does not justify combining the values into a single figure.