| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 10 | — | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 75 | 26.1% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 16 | -3.2% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 35 | — | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 74 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 27 | -26.8% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 93 | 9 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
MP Materials operates an integrated U.S. rare earth elements platform that begins with ore extraction and processing at Mountain Pass, followed by the separation of NdPr and heavy rare earth elements, and extends to the production of metals and magnets at Independence and the development of the 10X facility. The company generates revenue from sales of rare earth oxides and metals, magnet products, and magnetic feedstock, and its business is supported by contracts with GM, Apple, and Department of War, in addition to a long-term agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense company.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, total revenue and price protection agreement income reached $126.1 million, more than double the level a year earlier, driven by a 127% increase in NdPr sales volume to more than 1,000 metric tons for the second consecutive quarter. The company produced 840 metric tons of NdPr, up 41% year over year, despite a planned maintenance shutdown that extended through April 2026. The Materials segment contributed approximately $113.2 million in revenue and price protection agreement income, representing nearly 90% of the total, and generated $32.5 million in adjusted EBITDA, while the adjusted EBITDA margin for magnetic feedstock production exceeded 40%.
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached $28.5 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, an improvement of $41 million year over year, equivalent to a margin of approximately 22.6% of revenue and price protection agreement income. Adjusted loss per share improved by $0.12 to $0.01, but the latest available EDGAR filings show a net loss of $8.0 million in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 and a net loss of $71.2 million for the reported twelve-month period of 2026.
The average analyst price target is $80.7, within a wide range of $69 to $100, and the stock carries a consensus Buy rating. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $100.251, while the highest target nearly matches it. No meaningful price-to-earnings ratio is available because losses persist, so the valuation depends on successfully increasing NdPr production, launching Independence magnets, and converting capital expenditures into profits, weighed against the risks of rising costs and ramp-up volatility. The wide 52-week range of $37.81 to $100.251 also reflects high sensitivity to execution and growth expectations.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue and price protection agreement income reached $126.1 million in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, more than double the level recorded a year earlier. The improvement was driven primarily by a 127% increase in NdPr sales to more than 1,000 metric tons, alongside 41% production growth to 840 metric tons. As a result, consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased by $41 million to $28.5 million, and adjusted loss per share improved to $0.01.
The company expects regular commercial shipments to begin in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026, starting at limited volumes and then increasing over subsequent quarters. During quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, MP Materials delivered magnets to GM for in-vehicle qualification testing and said the results were encouraging. The process includes validating production capacity, batch traceability, quality-system integration, and testing the impact of replacing the component on vehicle systems, so the pace of the ramp may be nonlinear.
MP Materials signed a long-term agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense company, and expects its total value to exceed $100 million over several years. Management said the contract economics are fixed, limiting direct exposure to spot-price volatility. It also sees an opportunity to increase volumes at high incremental returns because most of the required capital investment will be spent at the outset.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Cash and short-term investments reached $1.45 billion on June 30, 2026. The company spent $230.3 million on capital expenditures in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, and year-to-date expenditures reached $308 million, with more than 60% of quarterly spending allocated to the Magnetics segment. It expects capital expenditures of between $500 million and $600 million in fiscal year 2026 and says available liquidity funds its long-term capital plan.
Management expects Materials sales volumes to remain approximately stable in quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026, with a slight decline in price protection agreement income, while magnetic feedstock revenue will gradually decline before the magnet sales ramp is completed. Net loss reached $85.9 million in fiscal year 2025, and the loss for the reported twelve-month period of 2026 was approximately $71.2 million, showing that accounting profitability has not yet stabilized. Other risks include outages in some Mountain Pass circuits, the complexity of commissioning the heavy rare earth line, difficulty attracting specialized workers, and the concentration of Independence and 10X capacity among a limited number of contracted customers.
The average analyst price target is $80.7, with a low target of $69 and a high target of $100, and the stock carries a consensus Buy rating. The average is below the 52-week range high of $100.251, while the highest target nearly equals that high, revealing clear variation in analyst estimates. The 52-week range is between $37.81 and $100.251, and no usable price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the losses, so the valuation depends heavily on executing the NdPr production ramp, launching magnets, and controlling expenditures and costs.
