| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 54 | — | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 22 | 8.8% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 18 | -3.2% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 38 | 6.3x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 63 | 3.53% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 38 | -29.3% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 61 | 10 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
The Mosaic Company produces phosphate and potash fertilizers and sells them across major agricultural markets, with Fertilizantes operations in Brazil and the faster-growing Mosaic Biosciences business. Earnings depend on phosphate production volumes and selling prices relative to sulfur and ammonia costs, the more stable contribution from potash, and distribution and higher-margin products in Brazil. In fiscal 2026 Q2, the company produced and sold 1.4 million tonnes of phosphate, while Fertilizantes generated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $60 million, and potash remained a stable contributor to earnings and cash flows.
In fiscal 2026 Q1, revenue was $3.0 billion and gross profit was $235.6 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 7.9%, while the company recorded a net loss of $257.6 million and a loss per share of $0.81. These results compare with revenue of $3.0 billion, gross profit of $342.6 million, and a net loss of $550.9 million in fiscal 2025 Q4; revenue was therefore stable, but gross profit declined by approximately 31%. On a trailing 12-month fiscal 2026 basis, revenue was $12.4 billion and gross profit was $1.6 billion, while net income was only $13.6 million.
In fiscal 2026 Q2, Mosaic reported a net loss of $273 million, with continued operating pressure from higher sulfur costs, reduced phosphate production, and weak fixed-cost absorption. The gross, operating, and net margins cited in the period results analysis were 11.0%, negative 1.4%, and negative 5.2%, respectively. The performance divergence among the businesses is clear: phosphate bears most of the burden from the raw materials crisis, potash benefits from more balanced supply and demand, while Fertilizantes and Mosaic Biosciences add more diversified income sources in Brazil.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $26.44, within a wide range of $22 to $31, with a neutral consensus; the average target remains approximately 29% below the upper end of the 52-week range of $36.99. No meaningful price-to-earnings multiple is available, as trailing 12-month net income in fiscal 2026 was only approximately $13.6 million and earnings per share were approximately $0.043, while the enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple is 14.4 times and the free cash flow yield is negative 4.1%. These indicators reflect a revaluation associated with phosphate losses and the sulfur crisis, while valuation support depends on successful cost reductions, working-capital release, and a production recovery.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Mosaic recorded a net loss of $273 million in fiscal 2026 Q2 amid higher sulfur costs and reduced phosphate production. Lower volumes weakened fixed-cost absorption and increased idle expenses in Phosphates and Fertilizantes. The company also suspended fertilizer production in Louisiana and operated Bartow at approximately 40%, while keeping phosphate production in Brazil largely limited to higher-margin products. These factors confirm that the loss was not merely an accounting effect, despite a non-cash write-off of a former purified phosphoric acid and battery cathode materials project.
Sulfur is an essential raw material for phosphate production, and disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions in Kazakhstan resulted in spot prices that management described as unsustainable. Mosaic secured fiscal 2026 Q3 supply at $705 per long ton and expects a realized cost of $700 to $710 per ton. In contrast, the company guides to a DAP price of $820 to $840 per ton, keeping the stripping margin above historical averages despite declining from the previous quarter. If sulfur availability improves, management said a return to target production rates could take weeks, not months.
Potash remained a stable contributor to earnings and cash flows during fiscal 2026 Q2, and the summer fill program was fully subscribed. Management expects unit costs to decline in the second half of fiscal 2026 with additional volumes from the HydroFloat project at Esterhazy. Mosaic Biosciences is on track to double its revenue again during fiscal 2026 and expects approximately $30 million in sales in Brazil in Q3 at a contribution margin of approximately 40%. However, these contributions remain limited relative to the size of the phosphate business and therefore do not eliminate the impact of continued production cuts.
Management expects to release between $300 million and $500 million of working capital, with approximately one-third of the amount in fiscal 2026 Q3 and two-thirds in Q4. The company reduced its annual capital expenditure forecast from $1.5 billion at the beginning of the year to $1.2 billion. It also expects free cash flow to improve sequentially in Q3 and Q4 as costs decline and Brazilian sales are collected. However, management acknowledged that cash flow from operations could be approximately $500 million below the combined total of capital expenditures and distributions during fiscal 2026.
The company estimates that phosphate application in North America declined by more than 30% from the normal level, while it may decline by approximately 30% in Brazil on a nutrient basis. It estimated additional nutrient removal equivalent to 1.4 million tonnes of DAP in the United States and 1.3 million tonnes in Brazil, increasing the need to restore soil fertility. Management observed improved crop prices and a return of purchasing patterns in Brazil to levels closer to normal during the weeks preceding the August 5, 2026 call. However, the realization of deferred demand remains tied to farmer affordability and product availability.
The analyst consensus on MOS is neutral, with an average price target of $26.44. The target range is $22 to $31, while the upper end of the 52-week range is $36.99, placing the average target approximately 29% below the annual high. The price-to-earnings multiple does not provide a useful signal because trailing 12-month net income was only $13.6 million and earnings per share were approximately $0.043. The enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple of 14.4 times and the free cash flow yield of negative 4.1% also indicate that the low price-to-sales multiple alone is insufficient to establish that the valuation is inexpensive.
