| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 48 | — | 17.3x | Around median | |
Growth | 14 | -0.9% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 23 | 2.1% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 53 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 12 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 75 | -2.1% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 83 | 11 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
40% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Molina Healthcare manages government-funded healthcare plans, with revenue primarily derived from premiums from Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace products. In Q2 FY2026, premium revenue totaled $10.2 billion, while EDGAR filings showed total revenue of $10.9 billion and gross profit of $1.4 billion. The company is targeting approximately 5 million members and nearly $42 billion in premium revenue by the end of FY2026.
In Q2 FY2026, net income under EDGAR was approximately $60 million and diluted earnings per share were $1.19, while the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.51. The consolidated medical cost ratio was 92.2%, the adjusted pre-tax margin was 1%, and the adjusted general and administrative expense ratio was 6.5%. By segment, Medicaid recorded a medical cost ratio of 92.7%, compared with 90.7% for Medicare and 88.9% for Marketplace.
Segment results reflect a clear divergence in earnings quality: Medicare Duals products exceeded expectations, while Marketplace bears the impact of prior-year settlements and a higher-acuity member mix, and Medicaid margins remain pressured by the gap between the 4% rate increase and the 5% medical cost trend. EDGAR data for FY2025 show revenue of $45.4 billion and net income of $472 million, but the latest reading for the twelve months ended in 2026 recorded a net loss of $7 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $0.14, highlighting weak accounting profitability despite the reported operational improvement in the quarter.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $205.45, but the target range is extremely wide at $129 to $286. The average target is approximately 16% below the 52-week high of $244.89, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target is near the range low of $121.06, reflecting sharp disagreement over the strength of the recovery. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, which is consistent with the latest twelve-month loss of $7 million, despite the increase in adjusted earnings per share guidance for FY2026 to at least $5.25.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Premium revenue totaled $10.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share were $1.51, while EDGAR filings recorded total revenue of $10.9 billion and net income of $60 million. The primary support came from Medicaid, which achieved a medical cost ratio of 92.7%, and from Medicare Duals, which benefited from lower costs across several medical categories. In contrast, Marketplace pressured results due to prior-year risk-adjustment and program-integrity settlements and a higher-acuity member mix.
The company raised its Marketplace medical cost ratio guidance from 85.5% to 90% and reduced the segment's contribution by $1.50 per share to an expected loss of $0.75. This outlook includes losses of approximately $1 per share from prior-year items and a profit of approximately $0.25 from FY2026 business. Management explained on July 23, 2026, that the members who remained after rate increases included a higher proportion of users of high-cost treatments, without full compensation through the risk-adjustment mechanism.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Molina expects $6 billion in Medicare revenue in FY2026, of which $5 billion will come from Duals products. The segment recorded a medical cost ratio of 90.7% in Q2 FY2026, and management lowered its estimate for the Duals cost trend from 6% to 4%. The company expects these products to contribute approximately $1.25 per share and a pre-tax margin of 1.4% in FY2026, compared with a loss of $1 per share from MAPD.
Management's outlook starts with adjusted earnings per share guidance of at least $5.25 in FY2026, and it says the FY2027 building blocks exceed $10 per share before any improvement in Medicaid. The company expects to add approximately $4.50 per share from the elimination of nonrecurring Florida CMS costs and MAPD losses and from improved operating leverage, plus $0.75 if Marketplace returns to break-even. However, this outlook depends on executing new contracts, improved Medicaid funding, and successfully reducing Marketplace exposure without creating new pressure on the member mix.
Management expects the Florida CMS contract to reach a full annual revenue run rate of $6 billion, but expects it to reduce FY2026 earnings per share by $1.50. The impact is divided into $0.50 of administrative expenses in Q3 before revenue begins, $0.50 from the reserve margin upon recording the new business in Q4, and $0.50 from a conservative assumption for the initial medical loss ratio. Management expects the program to break even in the first full fiscal year of the contract and reach the target margin in the second year.
For FY2026, the company assumes rate growth of 4% versus a medical cost trend of 5% and estimates that the managed Medicaid market is underfunded by approximately 300 basis points. It also expects membership to decline by 2% to 3% annually over three years due to work requirements and eligibility redeterminations, equivalent to a cumulative decline of between 8% and 9%. The $25 earnings-per-share target for FY2029 depends partly on a 90-basis-point improvement in the Medicaid medical cost ratio over three years, making the timing of state rate updates a critical factor.