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Home
Stocks
Moog Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall82
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 4/5SafeBetter than 82% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
31
31.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
77
15.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
68
16.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
76
1.3x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
33
0.32%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
80
110.4%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
77
4▲3Top tier
MOG-A

MOG-A Moog Inc.

Moog Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
367.02
▲ ⁦+0.08%⁩ (+0.30)
Market Cap$11.6B
Beta0.98
52w Low52w High
190.90448.85
Last Week
⁦-0.84%⁩
Last Month
⁦-14.41%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.55%⁩
Last Year
⁦+84.77%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$367
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$131
⁦-64%⁩
See it clearly overvalued
Range ⁦$131–$131⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$154
⁦-58%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.7⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$131–$154⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$131.00
⁦-64.3%⁩
Current Price $367.02·Median $131.00
Low
$131.00
High
$131.00
Street summary

Price Gap Analysis and Analyst Forecasts for Moog Inc.

Bearish tilt

Moog Inc. (MOG-A) stock shows a state of total stagnation in analyst estimates, with the average price target stabilizing at 131 dollars without any change over the past 7 and 30-day periods. Notably, there is a sharp negative gap between the current market price (318.94 dollars) and the target price, indicating that current analyst valuations have not kept pace with recent price surges or reflect a very conservative view regarding the stock's fair value.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.20
Buy
Analyst coverage
5
Buy conviction
80%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
2
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.20
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2023-02-06
    TD Cowen
    Outperform· $131.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    31.16x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    32.67x
    4.57x36.58x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.29x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.0%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    15.6%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    80.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    28.3%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    16.5%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.31x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.3%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    9.9%
    6.6%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.33
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Moog Inc. operates in high-precision control and motion systems across four segments: Space and Defense, Military Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, and Industrial. In Q3 fiscal 2026, Space and Defense sales were $336 million, Military Aircraft $245 million, Commercial Aircraft $254 million, and Industrial $282 million; the company therefore derives revenue from missile and spacecraft programs, aircraft equipment, spare parts, and aftermarket services, as well as pumps, medical applications, energy applications, and semiconductors.

Moog recorded revenue of $1.1 billion in Q3 fiscal 2026, up 15% year over year, gross profit of $347.2 million, net income of $152.0 million, and earnings per share of $4.74 according to EDGAR data. Gross profit was equivalent to approximately 31.6% of revenue, while sales increased across all four segments, led by 18% growth in Industrial, 17% in both Space and Defense and Commercial Aircraft, and 9% in Military Aircraft.

Adjusted operating margin reached 16.4% in Q3 fiscal 2026, up 280 basis points, but a $30 million tariff recovery added 270 basis points and approximately $0.70 to adjusted earnings per share. After excluding this recovery and the impact of the sale of a non-core product line in the comparative period, underlying operating margin improved by 80 basis points, while adjusted earnings per share were $3.72 and free cash flow was $133 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Q3 fiscal 2026 sales increased by 15%, and the 12-month executable backlog rose 23% year over year, reflecting broad demand across defense, commercial aviation, and Industrial.
  • The data center cooling pump business grew from approximately $25 million in fiscal 2025 to just under $100 million expected in fiscal 2026, and alone contributed half of the Industrial segment's 18% growth during the quarter. Moog operates three RM44 pump production lines in Murphy and Bangalore with capacity of approximately 1,300 pumps per week.
  • The company expects missile program revenue to reach approximately $275 million in fiscal 2026, representing growth of more than 20%, while order increases related to seven-year agreements have not yet entered the backlog. Management indicated that major customers are preparing to raise PAC-3 production rates by approximately threefold and THAAD by approximately fourfold.
  • Moog raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance by $50 million, allocated as $30 million to Industrial, $10 million to Space and Defense, and $10 million to Military Aircraft. It also raised adjusted earnings per share guidance by $1.51 to $11.65, plus or minus $0.10, and increased expected free cash flow conversion to approximately 70%.
  • Commercial Aircraft sales grew 17% in Q3 fiscal 2026, supported by higher volumes and pricing on major production programs and strong aftermarket services, while Military Aircraft sales grew 9% as repairs, overhauls, and spare parts increased and activity on the MV-75 program continued.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Growth diversification across all four segments provides clear operating support; three segments grew at high double-digit rates, while the fourth recorded high-single-digit growth during Q3 fiscal 2026.
  • +The expansion of the RM44 pump from approximately $25 million in fiscal 2025 to just under $100 million in fiscal 2026 provides tangible evidence of Moog's ability to scale production, while the next-generation pump designed to cool multiple racks is undergoing qualification testing under the OCP V3 standard in preparation for production of both products during fiscal 2027.
  • +The missile opportunity is supported by expected revenue of approximately $275 million in fiscal 2026 and announced production increases at major customers that have not yet been reflected in Moog's backlog, leaving room for additional growth if discussions convert into actual orders.
  • +Free cash flow of $133 million in Q3 fiscal 2026 and the decline in the leverage ratio to 1.5 times strengthen the company's ability to fund organic expansion, production lines, and research and development.

▼ Selling Case5 pts

Valuation

The available analyst rating is “Buy,” with an average price target of $131 and identical high and low targets at the same level. This target is below the bottom of the 52-week range of $190.9 and far from its peak of $448.85, revealing a contradiction between the rating and the target and warranting caution when using the consensus as a valuation anchor. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so a reliable comparison between valuation and earnings cannot be made from this source.

BuyAnalyst target: $131(-64.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove MOG-A's Q3 fiscal 2026 results?

Revenue reached $1.1 billion, up 15% year over year, while net income was $152.0 million and EDGAR earnings per share were $4.74. Space and Defense and Commercial Aircraft sales each grew 17%, Industrial grew 18%, and Military Aircraft grew 9%. Results benefited from strength in missiles, space, aviation aftermarket services, and data center cooling pumps. A $30 million tariff recovery also added approximately 270 basis points to adjusted operating margin.

How large is Moog's opportunity in AI data center cooling?

Management expects cooling business revenue to rise from approximately $25 million in fiscal 2025 to just under $100 million in fiscal 2026. The RM44 pump is used inside racks to cool high-performance AI processors, and the company operates three production lines with capacity of approximately 1,300 pumps per week. Moog is also developing a multi-rack cooling product that is undergoing qualification testing under the OCP V3 standard, and it expects to produce both products during fiscal 2027. However, current demand is concentrated primarily with one hyperscale computing operator through two cooling distribution unit manufacturers.

How could missile programs affect Moog's growth?

Moog expects approximately $275 million in missile program revenue in fiscal 2026, representing growth of more than 20% year over year. Management stated that plans at major customers include increasing PAC-3 production by approximately threefold and THAAD by approximately fourfold under programs extending for seven years. These increases had not reached Moog's backlog as of the July 31, 2026 call, although discussions with major customers were continuing. The company plans to add production lines within available space in Salt Lake City, with the required capital spending concentrated mainly on testing equipment.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Growth in data center cooling pumps faces high concentration, as demand comes primarily from one major hyperscale computing company through two cooling distribution unit manufacturers, and this customer's demand exceeded available capacity during the twelve months ended Q3 fiscal 2026.
  • −Converting defense and industrial demand into revenue requires disciplined expansion of facilities, workforce, supply chain, and testing equipment; management described industrial capacity expansion as the primary concern in the current defense demand environment. The expected increases in missile programs have also not yet entered the backlog, so their timing and actual size remain uncertain.
  • −The quality of a significant portion of the Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings improvement depends on non-recurring items; the tariff recovery added $30 million and 270 basis points to adjusted operating margin and approximately $0.70 to adjusted earnings per share. The company raised adjusted operating margin guidance by 70 basis points to 14.1% because of this recovery, while leaving its underlying business margin outlook unchanged.
  • −The MV-75 program includes customer funding risk; although Moog experienced no slowdown in work during Q3 fiscal 2026, management noted a funding gap and caps on certain spending, with continued activity dependent on Textron's commitment to self-fund the gap when necessary.
  • −The analyst target of $131 appears clearly disconnected from the stock's 52-week range of $190.9 to $448.85, as the target is below the bottom of the range despite the consensus rating being “Buy.” The identical high, low, and average target of $131 also limits the usefulness of the estimate range and makes the available valuation signal inconsistent with the annual trading record.
  • What changed in Moog's fiscal 2026 guidance?

    The company raised revenue guidance by $50 million, including $30 million for Industrial, $10 million for Space and Defense, and $10 million for Military Aircraft. It raised adjusted operating margin guidance by 70 basis points to 14.1%, with this adjustment related to the tariff recovery while underlying margin expectations remained unchanged. Adjusted earnings per share guidance also increased by $1.51 to $11.65, plus or minus $0.10. Free cash flow conversion guidance rose to approximately 70% because capital expenditures were lower than previously estimated due to the timing of investments.

    Did Moog's margin improve operationally or because of non-recurring items?

    Adjusted operating margin reached 16.4% in Q3 fiscal 2026, up 280 basis points year over year. The tariff recovery alone contributed approximately 270 basis points, while the sale of a non-core product line in the comparative period created a 70-basis-point adverse comparison. After neutralizing both factors, underlying margin performance improved by approximately 80 basis points. The improvement therefore combines genuine operating progress with a large non-recurring contribution from the tariff recovery.

    How do Moog's liquidity and leverage look?

    Moog generated free cash flow of $133 million in Q3 fiscal 2026, exceeding its adjusted net earnings according to management. The company kept working capital relatively stable despite strong sales growth, while capital expenditures were low because of the timing of investments. The leverage ratio was 1.5 times at the end of the quarter, supported by improved earnings and cash generation. Capital allocation priorities center on organic growth, with the potential for strategic complementary acquisitions involving limited additions to the portfolio.