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Stocks
Altria Group, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall82
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9SafeBetter than 82% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
66
14.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
15
-0.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
90
37.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
60
2.1x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
49
6.15%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
62
-0.3%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
91
8▲3Top tier
MO

MO Altria Group, Inc.

Altria Group, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
68.98
▲ ⁦+0.27%⁩ (+0.18)
Market Cap$115.2B
Beta0.49
52w Low52w High
54.7077.06
Last Week
⁦-0.84%⁩
Last Month
⁦+6.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.68%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.21%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$69
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$74
⁦+7%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$58–$79⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$75
⁦+9%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$74–$75⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$71.33
⁦+3.4%⁩
Current Price $68.97·Median $74.00
Low
$58.00
High
$79.00
Current price
$68.97
Average target
$71.33
Street summary

Altria Group (MO) Price Target Analysis

The analysis of Altria's stock price targets shows a state of caution, as the stock is currently trading at 74.81, a level that exceeds the analysts' average price target of 72.33 and the median price of 74. Despite a slight increase in the consensus of 0.7% over the past thirty days, the stability of the figures in the last week indicates a halt in optimism momentum, especially with a price gap between the minimum (64) and the maximum (79).

As of 2026-07-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.07
Hold
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
29%
Target dispersion
30%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
4
8
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.07 → 3.07
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    BTIG
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-07
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-15
    Barclays
    Underweight· $64.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.55x
    4.61x36.85x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    11.92x
    3.86x30.86x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.41x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.9%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.6%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -8.5%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    63.0%
    9.2%67.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    37.2%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.13x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    6.1%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    89.3%
    15.9%176.6%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.10
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Altria Group operates through a U.S. portfolio of nicotine products for adults, combining traditional cigarettes managed by Philip Morris USA, oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches developed by Helix, along with a financial investment in ABI. Profit generation depends heavily on Marlboro's strength in the premium segment and on pricing and product-mix management between Marlboro and Basic, while on! and on! PLUS represent the focus of expansion in smoke-free products.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Altria reported revenue of $6.1 billion, gross profit of $3.8 billion, net income of $2.3 billion, and GAAP earnings per share of $1.37; this resulted in a calculated gross margin of approximately 62.3%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 2.8% to $1.48, while reaching approximately $2.80 in the first half of fiscal 2026, representing growth of 4.9%.

The smokeable products segment remained the main financial driver, as its adjusted operating income increased 2.4% to $3.0 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026, with its margin expanding to 64.8%. By contrast, adjusted operating income for the oral tobacco products segment declined 8%, despite its margin remaining at 66.7%, due to a difficult comparison with the prior year and promotional investments in the launch of on! PLUS. Altria's equity-method earnings from ABI also totaled $158 million, up 21.5% from the comparable period.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Altria raised the lower end of its fiscal 2026 guidance and now expects adjusted diluted earnings per share of between $5.61 and $5.72, equivalent to growth of 3.5% to 5.5% compared with a base of $5.42 in fiscal 2025.
  • on! PLUS reached approximately 120 thousand stores, covering nearly 90% of the nicotine products market volume according to management, and the launch helped on!'s retail share reach 8.6% in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 0.8 percentage points sequentially and 0.3 percentage points year over year.
  • on! shipments totaled approximately 49.9 million cans in Q2 fiscal 2026, down 4.2% due to trade inventory movements, but increased 5.1% during the first half. Helix resumed shipments of on! PLUS in the 12-milligram strength in three flavors in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas, with a nationwide expansion planned for Q3 fiscal 2026 and the addition of Blueberry Mint and Mango Pineapple in Q4 fiscal 2026.
  • The smokeable products segment achieved net pricing of 4.5% in Q2 fiscal 2026, supported by strong Marlboro pricing, while Marlboro's retail price increased approximately 7% year over year. Basic's growth helped increase Philip Morris USA's total share by 0.3 percentage points year over year, while Marlboro's share within the premium segment remained at 59.6%.
  • Marlboro Cowboy Cut repositioned part of the Marlboro portfolio toward more value-sensitive smokers, while Philip Morris USA expanded targeted promotional support for Basic to approximately 35 thousand stores. The company uses revenue growth management analytics to reduce consumer switching to competing discount brands while preserving the profitability of the premium segment.
  • On August 25, 2026, Philip Morris International announced a contract manufacturing agreement under which it will produce traditional cigarettes for Altria's Philip Morris USA subsidiary, in a move aimed at leveraging production capacity and improving operational efficiency and supply chains.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The traditional business demonstrated a clear ability to convert pricing into profit, as adjusted operating income for smokeable products increased 2.4% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and the margin expanded to 64.8% despite a 4.5% decline in adjusted domestic cigarette volumes.
  • +on! PLUS provides a defined growth path for smoke-free products; on!'s retail share increased to 8.6%, and management reported encouraging repurchase rates for the NICOSILK soft pouch, with distribution expanding to 120 thousand stores and a plan to add new strengths and flavors during the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • +Altria returned approximately $3.9 billion to shareholders in the first half of fiscal 2026, including nearly $3.6 billion in dividends and $335 million to repurchase 5.3 million shares, with $665 million remaining under the repurchase program scheduled to expire at the end of fiscal 2026.
  • +The financial position supports capital allocation flexibility, as the debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.9 times on June 30, 2026, in line with management's target of approximately two times, while earnings from the ABI investment increased 21.5% to $158 million in Q2 fiscal 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $71.33, with a “Buy” consensus and a wide range of $58 to $79; the average is approximately 7.4% below the 52-week range high of $77.06, while the highest target exceeds that high. No price-to-earnings multiple is available in the provided data, so the valuation assessment is based on the 52-week range of $54.70–$77.06 and on the ability of adjusted earnings-per-share growth and shareholder returns to offset cigarette declines and legal and regulatory risks.

BuyAnalyst target: $71.33(+3.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Altria's results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

The company reported revenue of $6.1 billion, net income of $2.3 billion, and GAAP earnings per share of $1.37. Gross profit totaled $3.8 billion, equivalent to a calculated margin of approximately 62.3%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 2.8% to $1.48, primarily supported by a 2.4% increase in adjusted operating income for smokeable products to $3.0 billion.

Is on! PLUS offsetting the decline in Altria's traditional cigarettes?

on! PLUS showed positive share indicators, as on!'s retail share reached 8.6% in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 0.8 percentage points sequentially. The product also expanded to approximately 120 thousand stores, and on! shipments increased 5.1% during the first half. However, it has not yet fully offset the decline because on! shipments fell 4.2% in the same quarter and adjusted operating income for the oral tobacco products segment declined 8%.

What is Altria's plan for expanding on! PLUS during fiscal 2026?

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Helix resumed shipments of on! PLUS in the 12-milligram strength and three flavors in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. Management scheduled a nationwide expansion of this strength for Q3 fiscal 2026. It also plans to launch Blueberry Mint and Mango Pineapple in 6-, 9-, and 12-milligram strengths beginning in Q4 fiscal 2026, leveraging NICOSILK soft-pouch technology.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The structural decline in cigarettes remains the most important financial risk; reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 3.2% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the decline adjusted for trade inventory movements was 4.5%, while the company estimated that U.S. industry volume declined by approximately 5%.
  • −Economic conditions are pressuring the product mix, as the discount segment's share increased 2.6 percentage points and Marlboro's total share declined 1.5 percentage points year over year, with persistent inflation and higher fuel prices pushing lower-income consumers toward cheaper alternatives; Basic's growth also diluted the effect of Marlboro pricing on the revenue mix.
  • −The oral tobacco products segment faced operational weakness in Q2 fiscal 2026; its reported shipments declined 8.5%, its adjusted operating income fell 8%, and quarterly on! shipments declined 4.2% despite the nationwide expansion of on! PLUS, even though management attributed part of this to inventory and promotional comparisons.
  • −Competition in nicotine pouches is intensifying as competitors introduce new products and flavors, while on!'s retail share was only 8.6% and Altria's oral tobacco products segment share was approximately 29%. Maintaining momentum requires additional spending in the second half of fiscal 2026 to support the launch of the 12-milligram strength and new flavors, which may pressure segment profitability in the near term.
  • −Smoke-free products remain exposed to regulatory and execution risks; FDA guidance does not replace obtaining formal authorizations, and the return of NJOY ACE depends on the review of a supplemental PMTA after the product was modified because of a four-patent dispute before the International Trade Commission. Illicit flavored products also remain widespread despite federal seizures exceeding $250 million, and the company has not announced a date for returning NJOY ACE to the market.
  • −A report published on August 9, 2026, pointed to new legal scrutiny weighing on Altria's investment appeal, adding legal exposure to the existing operational challenges. This comes as analyst valuations span a range of $58 to $79, reflecting material differences in estimates of the impact of growth in smoke-free alternatives versus the decline in traditional cigarettes.
How is Altria managing declining cigarette volumes and consumer pressure?

Adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined 4.5% in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with an estimated industry decline of 5%. Marlboro maintained 59.6% of the premium segment, but its total share declined 1.5 percentage points as the discount segment expanded by 2.6 percentage points. Philip Morris USA responded by supporting Basic in approximately 35 thousand stores and launching Marlboro Cowboy Cut for more value-sensitive consumers, while achieving net pricing of 4.5% for the smokeable products segment.

What is Altria's earnings-per-share outlook for fiscal 2026?

The company expects adjusted diluted earnings per share of between $5.61 and $5.72 in fiscal 2026. This represents growth of between 3.5% and 5.5% compared with earnings of $5.42 in fiscal 2025. Management raised the lower end of the range after adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 4.9% to $2.80 in the first half, but it noted continued pressure from inflation and fuel prices and the need to fund on! PLUS expansion.

What are the main regulatory risks associated with Altria's smoke-free business?

Management believes the updated FDA priorities provide greater clarity, but they do not eliminate the need to obtain formal product authorizations. The company submitted a supplemental PMTA for a modified version of NJOY ACE after disputes involving four patents kept the product off the market, and it did not specify a date for its return. In Q2 fiscal 2026, illicit flavored vaping products remained widespread despite federal seizures exceeding $250 million and additional enforcement actions at the state and commercial-platform levels.