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MINISO Group Holding Limited
MNSO

MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited

MINISO Group Holding Limited · NYSE
Market Closed
9.07
▲ ⁦+0.11%⁩ (+0.01)
Market Cap$2.8B
Beta0.09
52w Low52w High
9.0125.92
Last Week
⁦-5.72%⁩
Last Month
⁦-27.73%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-30.07%⁩
Last Year
⁦-63.53%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 5/9Better than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
90
15.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
93
23.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
75
11.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
74
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
97
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
1
-51.7%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
61
7▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$9.07
Analyst target · 13 analysts
$11
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$11–$11⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 13 analysts setting price target
$10.80
⁦+19.1%⁩
Current Price $9.07·Median $10.80
Low
$10.80
High
$10.80
Street summary

A sharp cut in the target amid declining valuations

Bearish tilt

The current price target settled at 10.8 across the high, low, and average estimates, with 13 analysts participating, compared with an average of 21.13 on 2026-08-07; this represents a decline of 10.33, or 48.89%, over 30 days. Neither the average nor the number of analysts changed over the past 7 days, indicating short-term stability after the major revision, while the current price remains at 9.56, below the current target.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-48.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
84%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
3
13
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.13 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-31
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    Hold
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-31
    Citigroup
    BuyNeutral
  • = Reiterate2025-11-25
    Deutsche Bank
    —· $23.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.63x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.15x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.7%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    23.0%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    220.6%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    44.9%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    11.7%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.05x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-28 data

Company Overview

MINISO Group Holding Limited operates a global network retailing affordable consumer products, with a growing focus on intellectual property-related merchandise, designer toys, and lifestyle products. Its business is divided among MINISO China, MINISO Overseas, and TOP TOY, and it generates revenue through directly operated stores, franchises, and distributors; the franchise and distribution businesses have higher margins, while directly operated overseas stores require greater investment in rent, labor, and operations. The group had 8,674 stores at the end of the first half of fiscal year 2026, including 4,665 MINISO stores in China and 3,644 outside China, while TOP TOY had 365 stores globally, including 48 outside China.

In the interim results announced with quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 on August 28, 2026, group revenue rose 22.4% to 11.5 billion yuan, diluted earnings per share increased 8.2%, and operating cash flow rose 45.5% to 1.48 billion yuan. Gross margin was 44.3% in the first half, stable year over year, and the quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 margin increased by one percentage point to 45.3%, but a U.S. tariff refund added 0.6 percentage points to the first-half margin and 1.2 points to the quarterly margin. Adjusted operating profit declined 6% to 1.49 billion yuan, while it rose 5% to 1.63 billion yuan excluding currency effects, and currency-neutral adjusted net profit declined 1.7% to 1.22 billion yuan.

MINISO China led performance with revenue growth of 26.2% in the first half of fiscal year 2026, with comparable-store sales growth in the mid-single-digit range and a net addition of 97 stores. MINISO Overseas revenue reached approximately 4.06 billion yuan, North America recorded growth of 37% to nearly 1.8 billion yuan, while TOP TOY revenue grew 32.7%. On an annual basis, the provided EDGAR data showed fiscal year 2024 revenue rising to $17.0 billion from $11.5 billion in fiscal year 2023, with gross profit of $7.6 billion, net income of $2.6 billion, and earnings per share of 2.10 in fiscal year 2024.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Upgrading the Chinese store network represents a direct sales driver: the company added a net 97 stores in the first half of fiscal year 2026 and completed 189 renovations against an annual target of 255, while MINISO Land stores generated sales per square meter nearly twice those of regular stores and had a payback period of approximately one year, compared with 60 to 80 months for regular stores.
  • The development of owned intellectual property has become an independent driver; YOYO generated nearly 500 million yuan in revenue in the first half of fiscal year 2026 and entered 53 countries, while its sales exceeded 100 million yuan in each of June and July 2026. The group achieved its annual target of one billion yuan in owned intellectual property sales by the end of July 2026, ahead of schedule, with a profit margin above the group average and inventory turnover of between 30 and 40 days.
  • Membership supports transaction value and repeat purchases in China; the number of members rose 31% to 130 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026, and average transaction value increased 5%. The contribution from a member customer was twice that of a non-member, and the average transaction of an intellectual property member exceeded three times that of a non-member, while the retention rate of intellectual property members acquired in 2025 was 80% higher than that of others and their purchase frequency was twice as high.
  • North America recorded revenue growth of 37% to nearly 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of fiscal year 2026, despite quarter 2 growth slowing to 25% and comparable-store sales growth in the mid-single-digit range. Management is targeting revenue of approximately 4 billion yuan and a net margin of 10% in North America during fiscal year 2026, but it intends to slow store openings and focus on operating existing stores and improving the product mix.
  • Management reset its fiscal year 2026 expectations in light of overseas performance; it expects group revenue growth in the mid-teens range for the full year, following high-single-digit growth in the second half. This includes mid-teens growth for MINISO China in the second half, low-single-digit growth for the overseas business, and flat TOP TOY revenue in the second half before low-teens growth for the full year.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The China business demonstrates that the strategy of larger stores and intellectual property-related products is increasing network productivity, as revenue grew 26.2% in the first half of fiscal year 2026 compared with growth of only 1.3% in total Chinese retail sales, while revenue per store increased as the number of stores in China grew 8%.
    • +Owned intellectual property gives MINISO a higher-margin and faster-turnover source; YOYO generated nearly 500 million yuan in the first half of fiscal year 2026, while the cumulative merchandise value of Nommi at TOP TOY exceeded 300 million yuan, and owned intellectual property reached 10% of TOP TOY sales.
    • +Liquidity provides support for investment and capital returns; cash reserves reached 7.39 billion yuan at the end of June 2026, and operating cash flow rose 45.5% to 1.48 billion yuan. The company returned 1.31 billion yuan to shareholders in the first half of fiscal year 2026, including 520 million yuan through share repurchases, and established an annual policy to return at least 50% of currency-neutral adjusted net profit through repurchases and dividends.
    • +Insider purchases provide a modest positive signal; net purchases during the three months ending with the transaction recorded on June 1, 2026 amounted to approximately one million dollars through two purchases and no sales. Founder Ye Guofu also purchased shares worth approximately 54 million yuan during the first half of fiscal year 2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The quality of overseas earnings deteriorated despite sales growth; the overseas business's contribution to group profit declined from 35% to 40% in 2023 to 10% to 15% in the first half of fiscal year 2026, and directly operated markets outside North America and Europe remain in the investment stage and unprofitable. Overseas inventory turnover days rose to 273 days from 240 days, increasing the risks of markdowns and slower reordering.
    • −Earnings and margin expectations have become more conservative; management expects currency-neutral adjusted operating profit to decline by a high-single-digit percentage in fiscal year 2026, with its margin contracting by between 3 and 4 percentage points instead of the previous assumption of one to two points. In the first half, adjusted net profit margin declined 2.6 percentage points and the selling expense ratio increased 2.7 points, driven by higher rent, depreciation, intellectual property licensing fees, and labor costs.
    • −Growth is set to slow in the second half of fiscal year 2026; after group revenue grew 22.4% in the first half, management expects only high-single-digit growth in the second half. It also expects overseas distributor revenue to decline by a low-teens percentage, TOP TOY revenue to remain flat, and net closures of between 50 and 70 overseas stores, including a net reduction of between 100 and 110 distributor stores.
    • −North America revealed risks in product planning and the supply chain; quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 revenue growth slowed to 25%, and comparable-store sales weakened in June because of a gap in intellectual property releases and stockouts of some best-selling products. Comparable-store sales also failed to reach the previous guidance of a high-single-digit to low-teens range, and the company had to use expedited direct sourcing to fill inventory gaps.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $10.80, but the highest and lowest targets are identical at $10.80, meaning the provided data do not present a diverse range of estimates. This target is approximately 17% above the bottom of the 52-week range of $9.21, but approximately 58% below the peak of $25.92; this gap reflects a revaluation associated with margin contraction, a decline in the overseas contribution to profit, and the expected decline in adjusted operating profit in fiscal year 2026.

    BuyAnalyst target: $10.8(+19.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove MINISO's growth in the first half of fiscal year 2026?

    Group revenue rose 22.4% to 11.5 billion yuan, driven by MINISO China growth of 26.2% and the expansion of larger stores and intellectual property-related products. The company added 769 stores compared with the previous year, bringing the total to 8,674 stores, and completed 189 renovations in China. YOYO contributed approximately 500 million yuan in revenue, while diluted earnings per share rose 8.2% and operating cash flow increased 45.5%.

    Why did MINISO's margins decline despite revenue growth?

    Adjusted net profit margin declined 2.6 percentage points in the first half of fiscal year 2026, and the selling expense ratio increased 2.7 points. Rent and depreciation expenses for directly operated stores increased from 7.1% to 8.1% of revenue, intellectual property licensing fees rose from 2.6% to 3.1%, and selling labor costs increased from 6.8% to 7.2%. This coincided with a six-percentage-point decline in the share of the high-margin franchise and distribution businesses and a three-point increase in the share of less profitable directly operated overseas stores.

    Has owned intellectual property become a meaningful business for MINISO?

    The group achieved its annual target of one billion yuan in owned intellectual property sales by the end of July 2026, ahead of schedule. YOYO entered 53 countries and generated nearly 500 million yuan in the first half of fiscal year 2026, then exceeded 100 million yuan in sales in each of June and July. The cumulative merchandise value of Nommi at TOP TOY also exceeded 300 million yuan, and owned intellectual property accounted for 10% of TOP TOY sales.

    What is the main problem with MINISO's business outside China?

    Distributor revenue declined 10% in the first half of fiscal year 2026, while the overseas contribution to group profit fell to 10%–15% from 35%–40% in 2023. Overseas inventory turnover days rose to 273 days from 240 days, and some directly operated markets remain in the investment stage and unprofitable. The company therefore plans net closures of between 50 and 70 overseas stores in the second half, with a net reduction of between 100 and 110 distributor stores and the addition of only 40 to 50 directly operated stores.

    How did MINISO perform in North America during the first half of fiscal year 2026?

    Revenue grew 37% to nearly 1.8 billion yuan, and comparable-store sales achieved mid-single-digit growth. Quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 revenue growth slowed to 25% because of a gap in intellectual property releases and stockouts of some best-selling products, despite the two-year compound annual growth rate remaining near 50%. Management is targeting revenue of approximately 4 billion yuan and a net margin of 10% for fiscal year 2026, while slowing openings and focusing on the efficiency of existing stores.

    What is MINISO's capital return policy for shareholders in fiscal year 2026?

    The company returned 1.31 billion yuan to shareholders in the first half of fiscal year 2026 through dividends and share repurchases, with repurchases accounting for 520 million yuan of the total. Founder Ye Guofu added personal purchases of approximately 54 million yuan during the same period, while the provided net insider activity amounted to one million dollars through the latest transaction on June 1, 2026. The annual policy calls for returning at least 50% of currency-neutral adjusted net profit through repurchases and dividends.

    −
    The overseas business is exposed to political, logistical, and currency factors beyond the company's control; Colombia and other Latin American markets faced political volatility, higher shipping costs, and natural disasters, while markets in the Middle East and Asia were affected by geopolitical conflicts and currencies. In addition, part of the margin improvement in the first half of fiscal year 2026 depended on the U.S. tariff refund, which added 0.6 percentage points to gross margin.
  • −The 52-week range of $9.21 to $25.92 indicates the potential for significant valuation volatility, while the sole analyst target is $10.80, only about 17% above the bottom of the range and approximately 58% below its peak. Therefore, a return to elevated levels within the historical range will require evidence of improved overseas profitability and margin stability, not store and revenue growth alone.