| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 88 | 18.9x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 52 | 34.4% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 76 | 7.8% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 66 | 2.1x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 39 | 16.16% | 0.06% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 32 | -12.8% | -1.6% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 92 | 6 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
48% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Mach Natural Resources LP is a partnership that produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its model is based on acquiring producing, cash-flow-generating assets at a price no higher than PDP PV-10, without paying for undeveloped reserves or infrastructure. It owns approximately 3 million acres held by production, and its portfolio includes Oswego Limestone assets in Oklahoma, Mancos Shale assets in San Juan Basin, and the Central Basin platform. It aims to keep production approximately stable while reinvesting less than 50% of operating cash flow and distributing the remainder under a variable distribution policy.
In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, production totaled 149 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, consisting of 69% natural gas, 15% oil, and 16% natural gas liquids. Oil and gas sales totaled $360 million, with oil contributing 54%, gas 30%, and natural gas liquids 16%, while total revenue, including hedging and transportation and processing activities, reached $406 million. Average realized prices were $95.40 per barrel of oil, $1.93 per thousand cubic feet of gas, and $28.99 per barrel of natural gas liquids.
In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Mach recorded adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $182 million, equivalent to approximately 44.8% of total revenue, and operating cash flow of $154 million. Development capital expenditures totaled $97 million, or 63% of operating cash flow during the quarter, but remained at approximately 50% of operating cash flow since the beginning of fiscal year 2026. The company generated $60 million of cash available for distribution and declared a distribution of $0.36 per unit, while EDGAR data for Q1 of fiscal year 2026 showed revenue of $285.9 million, a net loss of $35 million, and a loss per share of $0.21.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $18.67 within a range of $17 to $20. The average is above the 52-week range high of $15.02, while the range low is $10.46. No established price-to-earnings ratio is available, and the valuation gap between the 52-week range and analyst targets appears linked to balancing the high distributions and the potential of Oswego and Mancos on one hand against the loss recorded in Q1 of fiscal year 2026, expected leverage of 1.4 times, and gas price volatility on the other.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Mach generates revenue from the production and sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, in addition to hedging and transportation and processing activities. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, oil and gas sales totaled $360 million, with oil contributing 54%, gas 30%, and natural gas liquids 16%. Total revenue after adding hedging and transportation and processing activities reached $406 million, with daily production of 149 thousand barrels of oil equivalent.
Mach built its model around reinvesting less than 50% of operating cash flow and returning the remaining cash to unitholders. The company has distributed $6.67 per unit since 2024, and the average declared cash yield was 15% from 2024 through Q1 of fiscal year 2026. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, it generated $60 million of cash available for distribution and declared $0.36 per unit, but this amount may change with commodity prices, capital expenditures, and the debt-reduction plan.
Mach owns approximately 575 thousand acres in San Juan Basin and is the second-largest gas producer and second-largest acreage holder in Mancos, according to management. The company aims to reduce the cost of a well with a three-mile lateral from historically approximately $20 million to about $13 million by reducing drilling days, changing suppliers, and improving completions. It estimates that five net wells annually could hold production steady at 350 million cubic feet per day, while ten net wells could increase it to more than 500 million cubic feet per day, but the timing of spending during fiscal year 2027 will depend on gas prices.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management expects the debt-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ratio to reach 1.4 times at the end of fiscal year 2026, compared with a target of one time. It aims to return to this level before the end of fiscal year 2027, with $41 million in cash and $270 million available under the credit facility at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Options include a $100 million at-the-market unit sale program, using part of the distributions to repay debt, or completing a unit-funded acquisition if it is accretive to cash available for distribution.
Mach has drilled more than 250 wells in Oswego Limestone in Kingfisher County since 2021 and returned a drilling rig to the area after oil prices improved. Management estimates a project return of approximately 87% at an assumed oil price of $75 per barrel, with a drilling and completion cost of $3.3 million per well and targeted production of approximately 160 thousand barrels of oil. The company plans to keep one rig in Oswego during Q4 of fiscal year 2026, and the program may extend into fiscal year 2027 depending on prices and cash flow.
The main risks are the sensitivity of gas-weighted production, San Juan pricing basis pressure, and expected leverage rising to 1.4 times at the end of fiscal year 2026. The distribution is also variable and may be reduced to fund debt repayment, while the company moved from net income of $73.1 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 to a loss of $35 million in Q1 of fiscal year 2026. In addition, intensifying competition for producing assets may reduce acquisition opportunities available at a price that adheres to the PDP PV-10-or-less limit.