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Stocks
McCormick & Company, Incorporated
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall55
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 5/8DistressBetter than 55% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
74
8.3x▲17.2xTop tier
▸
Growth
60
13.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
75
7.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
54
3.3x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
78
4.08%▲0.19%Top tier
▸
Momentum
27
-19.0%▼0.5%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
1
1▼3Bottom tier
MKC-V

MKC-V McCormick & Company, Incorporated

McCormick & Company, Incorporated · NYSE
Market Closed
46.22
▲ ⁦+1.09%⁩ (+0.50)
Market Cap$12.4B
Beta0.63
52w Low52w High
44.3072.14
Last Week
⁦-5.71%⁩
Last Month
⁦-13.85%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.80%⁩
Last Year
⁦-31.73%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$46⁩
  • Analyst targetsLow confidence
    10 analysts
    ⁦$83⁩
    ⁦+80%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$82⁩–⁦$94⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+21%⁩
  • Discounted cash flow modelLow confidence
    ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate · ⁦4%⁩ growth a year
    ⁦$44⁩
    ⁦−5%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$33⁩–⁦$62⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦−45%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Next year's earnings × ⁦11.0⁩, median of 41 companies
    ⁦$35⁩
    ⁦−23%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$23⁩–⁦$55⁩⁩

The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today

  • Value with no growth
    Today's after-tax operating profit, held flat forever, at a ⁦8.9%⁩ discount rate
    ⁦$16⁩
    ⁦−65%⁩

⁦65%⁩ of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.

1
methods value it above the price
1
methods near the price
1
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.29%⁩ as of ⁦2026-09-30⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$86.33
⁦+86.8%⁩
Current Price $46.22·Median $83.00
Low
$82.00
High
$94.00
Current price
$46.22
Average target
$86.33
Street summary

McCormick (MKC-V) Stock Forecast Analysis: Stability in Targets with Increased Coverage

McCormick stock shows remarkable stability in the average price target at 86.33 dollars, with no changes recorded in the consensus over the past 30 days. The most notable observation is the increase in the number of analysts contributing to the forecasts from 5 to 10 analysts recently, reflecting an increase in research coverage without compromising the average price target, which indicates a strong consensus on the stock's fair value despite the current price gap.

As of 2026-05-19
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Analyst coverage
3
Target dispersion
26%
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2022-12-06
    Deutsche Bank
    Hold· $83.00
  • = Reiterate2022-11-15
    BNP Paribas
    Outperform· $94.00
  • = Reiterate2022-09-12
    Barclays
    Equal-Weight· $82.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.34x
    4.54x36.35x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.28x
    3.67x29.38x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.33x
    2.85x22.82x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    7.3%
    -36.7%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    13.2%
    -16.0%28.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    91.7%
    -138.3%131.6%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    39.1%
    8.8%67.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    7.2%
    -26.0%20.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.33x
    0.62x4.99x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    4.1%
    0.0%7.2%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    34.1%
    20.9%200.4%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.79
    -3.705.82
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-10-02Based on 2026-06-25 data

Company Overview

McCormick operates through two complementary businesses: the Consumer segment, which sells spices, seasoning mixes, sauces, and products under brands such as McCormick, French's, Frank's, Cholula, Ducros, and Kamis, and the Flavor Solutions segment, which develops flavors and solutions for food manufacturers, private-label brands, fast-growing innovators, and foodservice customers. Growth relies on pricing, distribution, and innovation in flavor products, alongside the development of customized solutions for health and wellness trends, energy- or protein-rich beverages, and snacks. In fiscal Q2 2026 ended 2026-05-31, Consumer segment sales increased 20% in constant currency, while Flavor Solutions sales increased 6% in constant currency.

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was approximately $1.9 billion, up 16.7% year over year from $1.7 billion in fiscal Q2 2025 ended 2025-05-31. Net income was $150.1 million and diluted earnings per share were 0.56, while operating cash flow reached $379.8 million. Gross margin expanded to 40.2% from 37.5%, but operating margin declined to 14.3% from 14.8%, reflecting gross profit benefits from McCormick de Mexico, a tariff refund, pricing, and productivity, offset by higher technology, brand marketing, and logistics expenses. For the last 12 months through 2026-05-31, the company generated revenue of $7.4 billion, net income of $1.6 billion, and free cash flow of $999.5 million.

Key numbers

Q2 FY2026

Revenue
$1.9B
+16.7%vs a year earlier
Gross margin
40.2%
+2.7ppvs a year earlier
Operating margin
14.3%
−0.5ppvs a year earlier
Net income
$150.1M
−14.2%vs a year earlier
Diluted EPS
0.56
−13.8%vs a year earlier
Net cash
-$3.3B

Last 12 months to 2026-05-31

Revenue
$7.4B
Net income
$1.6B
21.9%of revenue
Free cash flow
$999.5M
13.5%of revenue

What's Driving the Stock

  • Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue for the period ended 2026-05-31 increased 16.7% year over year to $1.9 billion, with the McCormick Mexico transaction contributing to total growth alongside continued organic sales growth.
  • Gross margin expanded to 40.2% in fiscal Q2 2026, up 2.7 percentage points year over year, but 1.4 percentage points of this improvement came from a refund of tariffs absorbed by the company in prior periods, while the underlying improvement cited by management was 1.3 percentage points.
  • Flavor Solutions grew organically by 3% in fiscal Q2 2026 and increased 4% in the Americas, with equal contributions of 2% each from volume and price; this was supported by reformulation projects for major consumer goods manufacturers and demand for flavors used in energy, hydration, and protein beverages and snacks.
  • Organic Consumer sales in the Americas remained flat, as a 3% pricing contribution offset a volume decline; McCormick faces price sensitivity and competition from private-label and emerging brands in some spice categories, so volume recovery depends on price-pack architecture, promotions, distribution, and targeted marketing.
  • The company gained share in mustard and hot sauces, including three consecutive quarters of volume and value share gains for hot sauces in the United States, supported by new Cholula products, while also expanding Ducros seasoning mixes in France and Kamis products in Poland.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Gross margin expanded to 40.2% in fiscal Q2 2026 ended 2026-05-31, compared with 37.5% in fiscal Q2 2025 ended 2025-05-31, an increase of 2.7 percentage points, and even after excluding the tariff refund impact, management reported underlying expansion of 1.3 percentage points.
  • +Flavor Solutions delivered organic growth of 3% in fiscal Q2 2026, driven equally by volume and price, with 4% growth in the Americas and an acceleration in reformulation project launches for consumer goods customers, private-label brands, and fast-growing innovators.
  • +The brands demonstrated specific momentum through share gains in mustard and hot sauces in the United States, six consecutive quarters of value share gains for mustard in Poland, and share gains for recipe mixes in the United Kingdom over three consecutive quarters.
  • +Management expects Consumer segment volumes to improve sequentially in fiscal Q3 2026 and return to growth in fiscal Q4 2026, supported by expanded distribution, improved price-pack architecture, increased marketing investment, and innovation launches.
  • +

What would change this view

When: 2026-10-06

  • Fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted operating income growth at the 10% year-over-year threshold

    ▲ Positive
    Growth of 10% or more would place the result at the upper end of management's range and confirm that margin expansion can absorb increased marketing and ERP technology spending.
    ▼ Negative
    Growth below 8% would fall below the high-single-digit range and reinforce the risks of expense and inflation pressure on profitability.

When: Fiscal Q4 2026

  • Consumer segment volume growth at the 0% threshold

    ▲ Positive
    Volume growth above 0% would confirm that price, pack, distribution, and marketing adjustments are succeeding in reversing weakness in the Americas.
    ▼ Negative
    Volume growth at 0% or below would call into question the ability of commercial actions to restore demand amid price sensitivity and competition.

When: Fiscal 2026

Valuation

The indicative value from analyst targets, which is low confidence, is a median of $83 within a range of $82 to $94; it prices in expected growth and is inherently inclined toward optimism. The consensus average is $86.33 with a Neutral recommendation. The discounted cash flow model estimates a value of $59 within a range of $45 to $82 and at a discount rate of 8.9%; it measures the cash generated by the company and is inherently inclined toward conservatism. The industry-multiple value is $37 within a range of $26 to $58, based on next year's earnings and a median multiple of 11.0 for 41 companies, and therefore values McCormick similarly to its peers. The no-growth value is $23 and represents current after-tax operating profit if it remains constant forever at a discount rate of 8.9%. The methods agree on a descending order starting with analyst targets, followed by discounted cash flow, the industry multiple, and then no growth, but the wide differences among them reflect what each method measures and how much it depends on continued growth and operational improvement.

HoldAnalyst target: $86.33(+86.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What did MKC's fiscal Q2 2026 results show?

Revenue was $1.9 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 ended 2026-05-31, up 16.7% year over year from $1.7 billion. Net income was $150.1 million and diluted earnings per share were 0.56, while operating cash flow reached $379.8 million. Gross margin expanded to 40.2%, while operating margin declined to 14.3% from 14.8% a year earlier.

Why did McCormick's gross margin improve?

Gross margin increased by 2.7 percentage points year over year to 40.2% in fiscal Q2 2026 ended 2026-05-31. Management attributed the improvement to McCormick de Mexico, a tariff refund, selective pricing, and the continuous improvement program, offset by higher commodity costs. The tariff refund alone contributed 1.4 percentage points, while the underlying expansion cited by management was 1.3 percentage points.

Where is growth appearing, and where is weakness appearing, across McCormick's two segments?

Flavor Solutions grew organically by 3% in fiscal Q2 2026 ended

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Management expects the Unilever Foods transaction to add mid-to-high single-digit growth to adjusted earnings per share during the first 12 months after closing, with the contribution rising to the mid-to-high teens range in the third year, and an expected operating margin of 21% at closing before synergies.
The Unilever Foods transaction provides a stated path to increasing adjusted earnings per share by a mid-to-high single-digit range during the first 12 months after closing and by a mid-to-high teens range in the third year, with a targeted operating margin of 21% at closing before synergies.

▼ Selling Case8 pts

  • −Total debt was $3.6 billion versus cash and investments of $331.2 million in fiscal Q2 2026 ended 2026-05-31, making deleveraging execution important before and after the Unilever Foods transaction.
  • −Operating cash flow was $1.2 billion, equivalent to only 76% of net income of $1.6 billion during the last 12 months through 2026-05-31, so accounting earnings did not fully convert into operating cash.
  • −The sentiment pillar of the EL7 score registered 0 out of 100 within the packaged foods industry for the period ended 2026-05-31, a measure reflecting severe weakness in the direction of market expectations within the industry.
  • −Consumer segment volumes in the Americas declined during fiscal Q2 2026 despite a 3% pricing contribution, amid widening price gaps, greater consumer sensitivity, and competition from private-label and emerging brands in some spice and seasoning-mix categories.
  • −Of the quarterly gross margin expansion, 1.4 percentage points came from a non-recurring tariff refund, while cost inflation is trending toward 6% and logistics costs are being affected by the Middle East conflict and tight shipping capacity, making it more difficult to fully repeat the margin improvement.
  • −Quick-service restaurant customer volumes came under pressure in EMEA and Asia Pacific due to weaker traffic, including in the United Kingdom and Australia, limiting the breadth of Flavor Solutions momentum outside the Americas.
  • −Integrating Unilever Foods requires coordinating more than 200 people across 20 functional teams and ten markets representing approximately 75% of combined sales, with transition service agreements that may extend for up to two years after closing, adding tangible execution and operational risks.
  • −Management expects higher technology expenses related to the ERP system, brand marketing, and incentive compensation in fiscal Q3 2026, alongside the tax rate returning toward 24% after approximately 16% in the comparable period, pressuring earnings-per-share growth even with operating income growth.

Annual gross margin expansion at the 1.0 percentage point threshold

▲ Positive
Margin expansion of 1.0 percentage points or more would meet the lower end of management's 1.0 to 1.2 percentage point range and confirm the continuing impact of pricing and productivity.
▼ Negative
Margin expansion below 1.0 percentage points would place the result below management's range and raise questions about offsetting cost inflation after the tariff refund impact subsides.
2026-05-31
and delivered 4% organic growth in the Americas, with a 2% contribution from volume and 2% from price. The segment benefited from product reformulation and innovation in beverages, protein, and snacks, in addition to improvement in branded foodservice. By contrast, organic Consumer sales in the Americas remained flat because a 3% pricing contribution offset a volume decline amid price gaps and stronger competition.
What is the potential impact of the Unilever Foods transaction on McCormick?

Management expects an operating margin of 21% for the combined company at closing before any synergies, followed by a range of 23% to 25% after adding synergies. The transaction targets a mid-to-high single-digit contribution to adjusted earnings per share during the first 12 months after closing and a mid-to-high teens contribution in the third year. Planning involves more than 200 people and 20 functional teams, and transition service agreements may continue for up to two years after closing. The company also expects $1.5 billion to $2 billion to be available for debt repayment during the first two years after closing, after investments, synergy costs, and dividends.

What are the most important items to monitor in MKC's expected announcement on 2026-10-06?

The expected announcement on 2026-10-06 will test whether adjusted operating income growth in fiscal Q3 2026 entered the high-single-digit to low-double-digit guidance range. Consumer segment volume improvement in the Americas should also be monitored after its decline in fiscal Q2 2026, along with the continuation of Flavor Solutions organic growth, which was 3%. The report will also show whether margin expansion is continuing after the tariff refund contributed 1.4 percentage points in the prior quarter.