| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 85 | 12.1x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 53 | 11.4% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 90 | 18.6% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 91 | 0.1x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 48 | 2.16% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 59 | 2.5% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 96 | 12 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is an independent exploration and production company with operations concentrated in South Texas, generating revenue and cash flow from the production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. In fiscal Q2 2026, production totaled 106 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 41.9 thousand barrels of oil per day; Giddings accounted for approximately 81% of total volumes, producing 85.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, while Karnes produced slightly more than 20 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and represented an important source of free cash flow.
In fiscal Q2 2026, Magnolia generated adjusted net income of $184 million, or $0.99 per diluted share, adjusted EBITDAX of $370 million, and free cash flow of $235 million. The adjusted pre-tax operating income margin was 51%, or $25.15 per barrel of oil equivalent, with adjusted cash operating costs, including general and administrative expenses, of $11.55 per barrel of oil equivalent. Spending on drilling, completions, and facilities totaled $125 million, equivalent to a low reinvestment rate of 34% of adjusted EBITDAX.
Total production in fiscal Q2 2026 increased 8% year over year, while oil production rose 5%, with both reaching quarterly company records. Higher production and stronger year-over-year oil and natural gas liquids prices supported results, as total revenue per barrel of oil equivalent increased by approximately 39%. The company returned $80 million to shareholders during the quarter, including $31 million in dividends and $49 million to repurchase slightly more than 1.7 million shares.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus rates MGY as a “Buy,” with an average target of $34 and a range between $29 and $38. The average and highest targets are above the 52-week range high of $32.76, but the width of the range reflects uncertainty regarding WildFire financing, share dilution, and the post-transaction debt reduction path following a $4.06 billion deal. The context does not include a usable price-to-earnings multiple, so the valuation assessment is based on analyst targets, the 52-week range of $21.065 to $32.76, and the company's ability to achieve the expected financial accretion from the transaction.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Magnolia's production in fiscal Q2 2026 totaled approximately 106 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 8% year over year, while oil production increased 5% to 41.9 thousand barrels per day. Giddings posted record production of 85.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 10%, and the outperformance of its wells prompted the increase in the annual production growth outlook. Total revenue per barrel of oil equivalent also increased by approximately 39% due to strong oil prices, while adjusted net income totaled $184 million and adjusted EBITDAX reached $370 million.
The transaction is valued at approximately $4.06 billion and adds nearly 110 thousand net acres in Giddings and approximately 53 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The acquired production includes approximately 37 thousand barrels of oil per day, increasing the expected combined oil mix to nearly 50%. Following the expected closing in late fiscal Q3 2026, the combined Giddings acreage will exceed 1.25 million net acres, with opportunities in Austin Chalk, Eagle Ford, and Woodbine.
Magnolia is using a roughly balanced mix of equity and debt to finance the transaction. It issued 53.3 million new shares for net proceeds of $1.23 billion, issued $500 million of 6.625% notes due in 2034, and will assume $600 million of WildFire notes due in 2029 at closing. The company expects its fully diluted share count to reach approximately 269 million shares after closing, creating clear dilution compared with the average of 184.6 million shares in fiscal Q2 2026.
Management has prioritized debt reduction as a use of excess free cash flow after dividends and share repurchases. The company targets net debt of less than one times EBITDA by the end of fiscal 2027 or earlier, supported by the expected increase in combined cash flows. However, the speed of achieving this target will remain tied to commodity prices and the successful integration of WildFire, particularly because Magnolia will add new debt and assume $600 million of notes at closing.
The quarterly dividend reached $0.18 per share after a 9% increase announced in conjunction with the WildFire agreement, bringing the annualized dividend rate to $0.72. Management targets long-term dividend growth of approximately 10% annually, while repurchasing at least 1% of outstanding shares each quarter. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company returned $80 million to shareholders, including $31 million in dividends and $49 million to repurchase slightly more than 1.7 million shares.
Approximately 81% of Magnolia's production comes from Giddings, making results concentrated in the performance of a single field. Fiscal Q3 2026 guidance also expects standalone production near 106 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, similar to the previous quarter, with an expected oil discount of $3 per barrel to the Magellan East Houston benchmark. The WildFire transaction adds integration, leverage, and share dilution risks, despite management's expectation that it will be immediately accretive to cash flow and earnings on a per-share basis.
