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Home
Stocks
MGM Resorts International
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall79
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 6/9DistressBetter than 79% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
61
24.0x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
32
3.2%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
77
3.6%▼4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
34
13.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
90
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
62
11.8%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
82
10▲3Top tier
MGM

MGM MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International · NYSE
Market Closed
39.89
▼ ⁦-2.06%⁩ (-0.84)
Market Cap$10.2B
Beta1.30
52w Low52w High
29.1951.59
Last Week
⁦-3.74%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.00%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-21.31%⁩
Last Year
⁦+0.76%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$40
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$48
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$35–$55⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$54
⁦+36%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦10.1⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$48–$54⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$48.03
⁦+20.4%⁩
Current Price $39.89·Median $48.30
Low
$35.00
High
$55.00
Current price
$39.89
Average target
$48.03
Street summary

A Slight Rise in Consensus Amid Wider Dispersion

The consensus price target remained steady at $48.03 over the day and week, while rising over the last 30 days by $0.70, or 1.48%, from $47.33. However, this improvement coincided with an increase in the number of analysts included from 6 to 11, so it does not necessarily reflect a uniform change in analysts’ estimates. The current range is between $35 and $55, with an average of $48.03 and a median of $48.30, compared with a current price of $39.89.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.36
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦22 (+5)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
41%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
50%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
1
8
11
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.36 → 3.36
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Susquehanna
    Positive
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    Morgan Stanley
    Underweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    24.03x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    22.59x
    3.79x30.29x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.21x
    2.75x22.03x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    14.9%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    3.2%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -8.8%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    44.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    3.6%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    13.03x
    0.65x5.48x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.81
    -2.656.14
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

MGM Resorts International operates a portfolio of gaming, hospitality, and entertainment resorts, including properties in Las Vegas, regional operations, and MGM China, alongside digital businesses through MGM Digital and a stake in BetMGM. Income is generated from casinos, rooms, conventions, food and beverage, and events, as well as digital gaming and betting; in Q2 FY2026, conventions and groups accounted for 20% of the room mix in Las Vegas, while more than two-thirds of BetMGM’s net revenue came from online gaming.

In Q2 FY2026, MGM reported revenue of $4.5 billion, net income of $292.4 million, and earnings per share of $1.11 according to EDGAR data, equivalent to a net income margin of approximately 6.5%. Revenue was roughly flat compared with $4.5 billion in Q1 FY2026, but net income rose from $125.1 million and earnings per share from $0.48; by contrast, revenue declined from $4.6 billion in Q4 FY2025.

Operating performance was driven by record second-quarter revenue at the group level, year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDAR at the Las Vegas Strip resorts, and record quarterly revenue for regional operations on a same-store basis. MGM Digital achieved revenue growth of 20%, but recorded an adjusted EBITDAR loss of $31 million, while MGM China maintained a market share of 16.4%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis through Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $17.8 billion, net income was $425.9 million, and earnings per share were approximately $1.65, with a reported net income margin of 2.4% compared with 3.1% in the previous period.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The People Incorporated offer has been the most direct driver of the stock since July 31, 2026; the board of directors formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate the offer, which includes a cash price of $48.30 per share and a total valuation of approximately $18 billion, while People Incorporated owned 26.1% of the shares.
  • Las Vegas activity improved in Q2 FY2026, supported by a group and convention room mix of 20%, the highest average daily convention room rate, and the highest catering and banquet revenue in the company’s history for a second quarter. Bookings for the all-inclusive stay package also exceeded 30 thousand nights, and approximately half of its users were first-time MGM visitors, supporting occupancy and bookings at Luxor and Excalibur.
  • Regional operations recorded their best-ever quarterly revenue on a same-store basis, with records at Borgata and Beau Rivage, and both slot wagering volume and slot win increasing by 43% on the same basis. Through the end of FY2026, the company continues to develop premium lounges at both properties and begin renovating Borgata rooms.
  • MGM Digital revenue grew by 20% in Q2 FY2026, and BetMGM’s online gaming business grew by 8%. During the first half of FY2026, gaming volume per active online gaming user increased by 7% and net gaming revenue per active user by 9%, while the two metrics increased by 18% and 17%, respectively, in sports betting.
  • MGM China’s market share reached 16.4% in Q2 FY2026, up a full percentage point from the previous quarter, and visits and adjusted gross gaming revenue at its two properties then exceeded Q1 FY2026 levels during July 2026. In Osaka, more than 60% of the foundation piles were completed, and management said the project remained on schedule and on budget for a fall 2030 opening.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +MGM combines improvement in Las Vegas with record regional revenue; revenue and adjusted operating earnings at the Strip resorts increased year over year in Q2 FY2026, and the recovery at MGM Grand added approximately $25 million to adjusted operating earnings at the resorts.
  • +The People Incorporated offer gives shareholders a tangible reference point for asset value at $48.30 per share and a valuation of approximately $18 billion, and an independent committee began a formal evaluation of the transaction without announcing a final decision as of the July 29, 2026 call.
  • +Commercial initiatives demonstrate an ability to attract new demand; the all-inclusive stay package exceeded 30 thousand nights, approximately 50% of its users were new customers, weekend rates were slightly higher, and management described the margin as positive.
  • +Share repurchases increase the remaining shareholder’s share of earnings; MGM repurchased approximately 4.3 million shares for $164 million during Q2 FY2026 and reduced the number of shares outstanding by approximately 50% over five years.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $48.03, with a “Buy” consensus and a wide range between $35 and $55; the average is only approximately 6.9% below the 52-week range high of $51.59, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 6.6%. The wide range reflects meaningful disagreement over the value of the People Incorporated offer and the sustainability of margins, particularly with a trailing-twelve-month net income margin of 2.4% and MGM Digital’s quarterly loss of $31 million.

BuyAnalyst target: $48.03(+20.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were MGM’s key results in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue was $4.5 billion, net income was $292.4 million, and earnings per share were $1.11 according to EDGAR data. This is equivalent to a quarterly net income margin of approximately 6.5%. The company reported record second-quarter revenue, supported by growth in Las Vegas, record revenue for regional operations on a same-store basis, and 20% growth at MGM Digital. On a trailing-twelve-month basis, revenue was $17.8 billion and net income was $425.9 million.

What are the details of People Incorporated’s offer to acquire MGM?

On July 31, 2026, MGM announced that its board of directors had formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate the People Incorporated offer. The offer includes a cash price of $48.30 per share and a total valuation of approximately $18 billion, and People Incorporated owned 26.1% of MGM’s shares. William Joseph Hornbuckle confirmed that the committee members had no affiliation with Barry Diller or the proposed transaction. As of the July 29, 2026 call, the company had not announced whether it accepted or rejected the offer or provided a timeline for resolving it.

Is MGM’s Las Vegas business improving?

Revenue and adjusted operating earnings at the Las Vegas Strip resorts increased year over year in Q2 FY2026, and the recovery at MGM Grand added approximately $25 million to adjusted operating earnings. Groups and conventions represented 20% of the room mix, and the company recorded the highest average daily convention room rate and the highest catering and banquet revenue in its history for a second quarter. The all-inclusive stay package at Luxor and Excalibur exceeded 30 thousand nights, and approximately half of its users were new MGM customers. However, the lower-priced segment remained under pressure, and management said that revenue growth faces challenges at the operating earnings level.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Overall profitability remains limited despite record revenue; the trailing-twelve-month net income margin was 2.4% compared with 3.1% in the previous period, and management said that Las Vegas revenue growth faces challenges at the operating earnings level, while Q2 FY2026 earnings fell below expectations due to margin pressures in China.
  • −MGM Digital needs further improvement before becoming a positive contributor to earnings; despite revenue growth of 20% in Q2 FY2026, the segment recorded an adjusted EBITDAR loss of $31 million, while funding continued for expansion in Brazil.
  • −The Osaka project imposes a large, long-term capital commitment; MGM had spent approximately $600 million as of July 29, 2026, and expected additional funding of between $125 million and $175 million in the second half of FY2026, followed by approximately $1 billion in each of FY2027 and FY2028 before the fall 2030 opening.
  • −Las Vegas demand faces specific areas of weakness; lower-priced properties, particularly Luxor and Excalibur, remained under pressure, and international travel was below previous levels, while more than 50% of arrival traffic typically comes by car, primarily from Southern California. Management also noted that the booking window is short and that Q4 FY2026 needs more work.
  • −Results are exposed to gaming volatility and competition; Las Vegas earnings in Q2 FY2026 benefited by tens of millions from higher gaming hold, an effect that management said could move in either direction, while it described Macau as a competitive market and Empire City faced new competition in the state.
  • −The outcome of the People Incorporated offer remains unresolved; the independent committee was still evaluating the transaction on July 29, 2026, and management provided no assurance that the offer would be accepted or completed, making any valuation based on completion of the acquisition vulnerable to downside if its terms change or it is not completed.
  • −Insider activity recorded one sale and net sales of approximately 256.6 thousand shares during the three months ended with the latest transaction on May 22, 2026, with no purchases recorded. This is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the available information contains no evidence to the contrary.
  • When could MGM Digital become profitable?

    MGM Digital achieved net revenue growth of 20% in Q2 FY2026, but recorded an adjusted EBITDAR loss of $31 million. Management expects the EBITDA loss for FY2026 to be lower than in the previous fiscal year. The company believes that the LeoVegas and BetMGM businesses in Europe could achieve significant operating leverage and profitability during FY2027. It aims to use a portion of those earnings to fund expansion in Brazil, without specifying the ultimate amount of self-funding.

    How large is MGM’s commitment to the Osaka project, and when will it open?

    MGM’s cumulative spending on Osaka was approximately $600 million as of the July 29, 2026 call. The company expected additional funding of between $125 million and $175 million in the second half of FY2026, followed by approximately $1 billion in each of FY2027 and FY2028. More than 60% of the foundation piles had been completed, with concrete work and structural steel fabrication continuing. Management confirmed that the project was on schedule and on budget for an opening in fall 2030.

    What are the main operating risks facing MGM stock?

    The trailing-twelve-month net income margin declined to 2.4% from 3.1%, and MGM Digital recorded a quarterly loss of $31 million despite 20% revenue growth. Osaka requires approximately $1 billion in funding in each of FY2027 and FY2028, increasing spending intensity before the fall 2030 opening. In Las Vegas, Luxor and Excalibur remain under pressure, international travel is also weak, and more than 50% of arrival traffic typically depends on cars, led by the Southern California market. Q2 FY2026 earnings also benefited by tens of millions from higher gaming hold, a volatile factor that cannot be assumed to recur.