| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 82 | 31.8x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 65 | 19.2% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 71 | 9.0% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 59 | 2.9x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 67 | 1.10% | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 89 | 45.3% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 82 | 6 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Methanex produces and markets methanol through a network of assets in Canada, the United States, Chile, Egypt, and New Zealand, with economic interests of 63.1% in Atlas, 50% in the Egypt facility, and 50% in Natgasoline, in addition to a 60% stake in Waterfront Shipping. Revenue and cash flow depend heavily on the volume of methanol sold and the average realized price, while the company serves a global market that management estimated at approximately 100 million tonnes annually, of which 60% is in China, 20% to 25% in the rest of Asia, and 15% to 20% in Atlantic regions.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company sold approximately 2.2 million tonnes of its production at an average realized price of $529 per tonne and generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $577 million and adjusted net income of $300 million. Adjusted earnings included a $12 million provision for restructuring Trinidad and Tobago operations, while the company separately recorded a non-cash after-tax impairment loss of $115 million related to the indefinite idling of the Titan plant.
The company’s production on an equity-interest basis reached 2.2 million tonnes in Q2 fiscal 2026, with approximately 1.6 million tonnes, or about 73%, coming from North America. The Geismar site recorded quarterly production of 1.127 million tonnes, while Beaumont produced approximately 180 thousand tonnes and Methanex’s share of Natgasoline was approximately 204 thousand tonnes; Chile also contributed approximately 327 thousand tonnes and New Zealand approximately 46 thousand tonnes, while the Egypt plant operated at full capacity. On an annual basis, fiscal 2025 revenue declined to $3.6 billion from $3.7 billion in fiscal 2024, and gross profit increased to $1.3 billion from $1 billion, but net income fell to $144.8 million from $250.2 million and earnings per share to $0.93 from $2.39.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus rates MEOH shares a “Buy,” with an average price target of $69.4 and a wide range between $60 and $80; the average is approximately 4% above the upper end of the 52-week range of $66.75, while the highest target is approximately 20% above it. The wide spread of targets and the 52-week range of $32–$66.75 reflect the valuation’s sensitivity to methanol price volatility and disruptions in Hormuz, while the positive consensus balances strong cash flows and North American assets on one hand against the decline in fiscal 2025 net income and guidance for lower Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on the other.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Performance depends primarily on the volume of methanol sold, the average realized price, and gas and transportation costs. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company sold approximately 2.2 million tonnes at an average of $529 per tonne and generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $577 million and adjusted net income of $300 million. Results benefited from the supply shortage associated with the Strait of Hormuz and strong production in North America, but included a $12 million restructuring provision and higher logistics costs.
Management estimated on July 29, 2026 that between 15 and 20 million tonnes of annual methanol supply needs to transit the strait to reach end markets. Approximately one-third of this volume reached the market during Q2 fiscal 2026 from previous inventories, while the related production remained offline according to the company’s estimate. The shortage supported prices, but reduced normal demand by approximately 5% to 10% and increased fuel and shipping costs, so it can benefit earnings through pricing while simultaneously pressuring them through demand and costs.
Management maintained its forecast on July 29, 2026 at approximately 9 million tonnes of production on an equity-interest basis in fiscal 2026. It said that stronger performance in Egypt and New Zealand is helping offset the impact of idling Titan, with differences in the economic value per tonne among sites. The target is also supported by record North American production of 1.6 million tonnes in Q2 fiscal 2026, but management cautioned that timing, maintenance, gas availability, and unplanned outages could change quarterly production.
Geismar achieved record quarterly production of 1.127 million tonnes in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management is targeting four million tonnes annually at approximately 97% reliability. Beaumont produced approximately 180 thousand tonnes despite an unplanned 30-day outage in June 2026 to repair the cooling tower, then restarted in early July 2026. The company’s share of Natgasoline was also approximately 204 thousand tonnes, making North America approximately 73% of Methanex’s total production on an equity-interest basis during the quarter.
The company repaid the final $290 million of the tranche A loan in Q2 fiscal 2026, after fully repaying the $550 million facility, and ended the period with more than $380 million in cash. Management initially targets a ratio of approximately three times adjusted debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, followed by a longer-term range of between 2 and 2.5 times at mid-cycle prices. It will direct the majority of free cash flow toward increasing cash and reducing debt, while evaluating the allocation of a modest amount to share repurchases as it makes progress toward the leverage target.
Methanex announced on June 29, 2026 that Titan in Trinidad and Tobago would be idled indefinitely after it was unable to agree on a commercially viable natural gas contract. As a result, the company recorded a non-cash after-tax impairment loss of $115 million, along with a restructuring provision of $12 million in Q2 fiscal 2026. Management explained that the plant’s economics were not profitable on a netback basis across the supply chain and that the terms of the potential gas contract would have been less favorable than the previous contract.
