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Home
Stocks
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall85
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 6/9SafeBetter than 85% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
24
34.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
74
24.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
89
102.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
54
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
82
24.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
35
9▲3Bottom tier
MEDP

MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
587.52
▲ ⁦+0.75%⁩ (+4.36)
Market Cap$16.4B
Beta1.15
52w Low52w High
373.00677.90
Last Week
⁦-0.93%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.53%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+31.40%⁩
Last Year
⁦+24.09%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$588
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$610
⁦+4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$515–$692⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$337
⁦-43%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$337–$610⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$606.38
⁦+3.2%⁩
Current Price $587.52·Median $610.00
Low
$515.00
High
$692.00
Current price
$587.52
Average target
$606.38
Street summary

Medpace (MEDP) Price Target Revision Analysis

Medpace stock has seen a sharp upward revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus jumping 20.55% to reach $606.38 compared to $503 in mid-July. However, there is a notable divergence among analysts (with a $177 spread between the high and low), indicating uncertainty regarding fair valuation despite the raised price expectations.

As of 2026-08-16
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.15
Hold
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
15%
Target dispersion
30%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
1
1
10
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.14 → 3.15
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    34.22x
    3.94x44.30x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    33.33x
    4.64x37.16x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    26.09x
    3.77x30.13x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.3%
    -138.2%7.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    24.7%
    -56.9%93.8%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    26.6%
    -160.1%130.2%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    28.8%
    12.8%90.7%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    102.9%
    -155.3%16.0%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    7.78
    -38.7417.53
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Medpace Holdings provides clinical research services to biotechnology companies, with operations spanning Phase 1, 2, and 3 studies and the management of therapeutic programs in areas such as oncology, metabolic diseases, and cardiometabolic diseases. Its revenue is generated from executing these programs and the associated reimbursable direct costs; management indicated that these costs represented a high percentage of revenue, with an expected range of 41% to 42% during the second half of fiscal year 2026.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased 17.2% year over year to $707.3 million, and net income rose 34.5% to $121.4 million, implying a calculated net income margin of approximately 17.2%. Diluted earnings per share reached $4.25 versus $3.10 in the comparable period, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 17.6% to $153.4 million, with its margin remaining broadly stable at 21.7% versus 21.6%.

Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2026, reached approximately $1.41 billion, an increase of 21.7%, while net income was $245.2 million and diluted earnings per share were $8.53. In terms of business mix, large metabolic programs for some of the largest clients contributed strongly to revenue growth, but oncology represented more than half of bookings and award notifications in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, indicating that the mix is gradually shifting back toward oncology.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Net new business awards added to backlog reached a record $795.7 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 28.2% year over year, and the net book-to-bill ratio was 1.13 times.
  • Backlog stood at approximately $3 billion on June 30, 2026, an increase of 4.9%, and the company expects to convert approximately $1.96 billion of it into revenue during the twelve months following that date. Management also said that pre-backlog activity had become larger than the backlog itself and grew faster than the backlog during the year ended in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • Requests for proposals increased significantly year over year and meaningfully quarter over quarter in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, amid broader funding among biotechnology clients and improved opportunity quality. Management expects total bookings to increase in the second half of fiscal year 2026, while cancellations remain an unpredictable factor.
  • Oncology accounted for more than half of bookings and award notifications in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, while opportunities in metabolic and cardiometabolic diseases declined from the prior-year levels. Management expected oncology to regain several percentage points of the business mix over approximately one year, reshaping growth sources toward its historical programs.
  • The company raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range to between $2.805 billion and $2.885 billion, representing growth of between 10.9% and 14%, and set an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range of between $618 million and $642 million. It also expects net income of between $494 million and $514 million and diluted earnings per share of between $17.25 and $17.95.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 fiscal year 2026 results combine revenue growth of 17.2% with net income growth of 34.5%, while the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin remained stable at approximately 21.7%, reflecting operating growth accompanied by a benefit to net profit from a lower tax rate and higher interest income.
  • +Net new business awards of $795.7 million and backlog of approximately $3 billion provide tangible revenue visibility, particularly with $1.96 billion of backlog expected to be converted during the twelve months following June 30, 2026.
  • +Improved commercial demand does not depend on a single indicator; requests for proposals increased, opportunity quality improved, biotechnology client funding broadened, and cancellations declined to a range that management described as healthy in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • +The company generated $162 million in operating cash flow in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and ended the period with $502.7 million in cash, with $527 million remaining under the share repurchase authorization after repurchasing approximately 706 thousand shares for $294.7 million.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $606.38, with a neutral consensus and a wide range between $515 and $692, reflecting meaningful disagreement about the sustainability of bookings growth, the impact of cancellations, and the shift in mix from metabolic programs to oncology. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $677.9 and above its low of $373, while the highest target is slightly above the range high; the available data do not include a valid earnings multiple that could be used as an additional valuation anchor.

HoldAnalyst target: $606.38(+3.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove MEDP's results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Medpace's revenue reached approximately $707.3 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 17.2% year over year. Net income increased 34.5% to $121.4 million, while diluted earnings per share rose from $3.10 to $4.25. The company attributed net income growth outpacing growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to a lower effective tax rate and higher interest income.

Does Medpace's backlog provide good visibility into revenue growth?

Backlog stood at approximately $3 billion on June 30, 2026, an increase of 4.9% from the comparable period. The company expects to convert approximately $1.96 billion of it into revenue during the twelve months following that date, after the conversion rate reached 24.1% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. However, management expects the conversion rate to trend gradually downward toward its historical level, without specifying the precise timing or rate of that decline.

Why are new business awards important for MEDP stock?

Net new business awards added to backlog reached $795.7 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 28.2% year over year. This resulted in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.13 times, supported by lower cancellations and increased requests for proposals. Management also said on July 23, 2026, that total bookings were expected to increase during the second half of fiscal year 2026, but emphasized that cancellations remain unpredictable.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −A significant portion of Medpace's growth depends on a limited number of clients and large programs; the top five clients represented approximately 31% of twelve-month revenue, and the top ten clients represented approximately 40%. Management confirmed that large metabolic programs for some of the top five clients were an important driver of that growth, making the completion or scope reduction of a large program consequential for revenue.
  • −Cancellations remain a material and difficult-to-predict risk; management explained that they had been elevated in previous periods and that their decline accounted for more than half of the sequential improvement in net bookings in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Any sudden return to elevated levels could reduce bookings and pre-backlog activity despite the strength of total opportunities.
  • −The fiscal year 2026 revenue growth range of 10.9% to 14% suggests a slowdown compared with the 21.7% growth recorded during the six months ended June 30, 2026. Initial award notifications also declined sequentially from a very strong level in Q1 of fiscal year 2026, although management said they were not unusually low.
  • −Opportunities for new metabolic and cardiometabolic programs declined significantly compared with the prior year, while some existing large metabolic programs are winding down. Strength in oncology may offset this shift, but oncology programs may be subject to decision points and interim analyses that limit the amount of business that can be added to backlog before the study's continuation becomes clear.
  • −Management expected the backlog conversion rate to decline gradually from its Q2 fiscal year 2026 level of 24.1% toward lower historical levels, without providing a specific timeline. Reimbursable direct costs also came in slightly above expectations and may exceed 42% of revenue in fiscal year 2026, adding sensitivity to the revenue mix and margins.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus reflects divided views, with the price target ranging from $515 to $692 versus an average of $606.38. The insider signal classified as a strong sell reinforces this caution following net sales of $77.7 million across 17 sales and no purchases during the three months ended August 26, 2026, but these sales remain a weak standalone signal and may have been prearranged.
How is Medpace's program mix changing between metabolic diseases and oncology?

Large metabolic programs for some of the top five clients were an important driver of revenue growth, but new opportunities in metabolic and cardiometabolic diseases declined compared with the prior year. In contrast, oncology represented more than half of bookings and award notifications in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Management expects oncology's share to move toward historical averages over approximately one year, potentially adding several percentage points to the business mix.

What are MEDP's main concentration and cancellation risks?

The top five clients represented approximately 31% of twelve-month revenue, and the percentage increased to approximately 40% for the top ten clients. A significant portion of this concentration is tied to large metabolic programs, increasing the impact of any reduction or termination of an individual program. Management also explained that lower cancellations accounted for more than half of the improvement in net bookings compared with Q1 of fiscal year 2026, and that it cannot predict whether cancellations will spike again.

What is Medpace's guidance for fiscal year 2026?

Medpace expects revenue of between $2.805 billion and $2.885 billion in fiscal year 2026, representing growth of between 10.9% and 14% from fiscal year 2025 revenue of $2.53 billion. It expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $618 million and $642 million and net income of between $494 million and $514 million. The diluted earnings per share range is between $17.25 and $17.95, based on exchange rates recorded on June 30, 2026, and without assuming additional share repurchases.