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Stocks
Mercury General Corporation
MCY

MCY Mercury General Corporation

Mercury General Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
102.34
▼ ⁦-0.30%⁩ (-0.31)
Market Cap$5.7B
Beta0.93
52w Low52w High
74.29112.49
Last Week
⁦+1.25%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.63%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.02%⁩
Last Year
⁦+31.44%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall91
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Better than 91% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
93
6.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
79
10.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
98
——Top tier
▸
Safety
33
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
18
1.24%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
84
39.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
24
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$102
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$90
⁦-12%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$90–$90⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$353
⁦+244%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$90–$353⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$90.00
⁦-12.1%⁩
Current Price $102.34·Median $90.00
Low
$90.00
High
$90.00
Street summary

Mercury General (MCY) Stock Forecast Analysis

Bearish tilt

MCY stock shows a notable price gap, currently trading at 101.03 dollars, which exceeds the consensus target price (90 dollars) by approximately 11%. Data indicates a complete stagnation in analyst reviews across periods (day, week, month), with only one analyst currently covering the stock, leading to zero Dispersion in forecasts but with weak depth in analytical coverage.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
1
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time1 analysts rating
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2025-09-22
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
  • = Reiterate2025-08-04
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy· $90.00
  • ⬆ Upgrade2022-11-04
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    6.05x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.71x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    10.0%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    140.0%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    1.2%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    7.5%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2025-02-12 data

Company Overview

Mercury General Corporation is an insurance company that generates revenue primarily from insurance policy premiums and investment income. Personal auto and homeowners insurance accounted for 88% of total companywide earned premiums in fiscal year 2024, making underwriting results in these two businesses the most important operating driver, while investment portfolio income provides another source of earnings.

In quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026, Mercury General reported revenue of $1.5 billion, net income of $190.4 million, and earnings per share of $3.44. EDGAR data shows gross profit of $1.5 billion, equal to revenue under the classification presented in the data, without a more recent breakdown of each segment's contribution to revenue.

For fiscal year 2025, revenue was $6.0 billion, net income was $541.1 million, and earnings per share were $9.77. Meanwhile, trailing twelve-month data classified under 2026 shows revenue of $6.1 billion, net income of $839.8 million, and earnings per share of approximately $15.16, reflecting a higher earnings level than fiscal year 2025 in the latest available figures.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The latest reported results for quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026 showed continued profitability, with net income of $190.4 million and earnings per share of $3.44 on revenue of $1.5 billion.
  • Trailing twelve-month data classified under 2026 recorded net income of $839.8 million, compared with $541.1 million in fiscal year 2025, while revenue increased from $6.0 billion to $6.1 billion.
  • Net premiums written reached $1.3 billion in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2024, an increase of 16%, and reached $5.4 billion during fiscal year 2024, an increase of 20.5%. Management attributed this primarily to a higher average premium per policy following rate increases.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Underwriting improved in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2024, with a combined ratio of 91.4%, or 88.3% excluding catastrophe losses, and the company recorded after-tax operating income of $98 million, the highest in its history according to management.
  • After-tax investment income increased to $61.5 million in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2024, up 15% year over year, supported by a 16% increase in average invested assets. On February 12, 2025, management expected investment income in fiscal year 2025 to be close to its level in fiscal year 2024.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Strong underlying underwriting supports profitability, as the underlying combined ratio was 92.1% for personal auto insurance and 76.1% for homeowners insurance during fiscal year 2024, with both below the 100% level that typically separates an underwriting profit from an underwriting loss.
    • +The latest EDGAR data shows strong earnings-generating capacity; net income for the trailing twelve months classified under 2026 was approximately $839.8 million, with earnings per share of about $15.16, compared with net income of $541.1 million and earnings per share of $9.77 in fiscal year 2025.
    • +Reinsurance provides important catastrophe protection, as the company's program provided limits of $1.29 billion per occurrence after the retention was exceeded, in addition to up to $20 million of excess-of-loss coverage per property, according to details provided on February 12, 2025.
    • +On February 12, 2025, management estimated the range of subrogation recoveries related to the Eaton fire at between 40% and 70%, based on a record of recoveries ranging from 55% to 70% in previous fires linked to utility equipment, while affirming that it would vigorously pursue its subrogation rights.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Mercury General's business is highly concentrated in personal auto and homeowners insurance, which together accounted for 88% of earned premiums in fiscal year 2024, making earnings highly sensitive to pricing in these two lines and inflation in their claims costs.
    • −The January 2025 fires revealed significant exposure to California catastrophes; the company estimated gross losses at between $1.6 billion and $2.0 billion, with net pre-tax catastrophe losses of between $155 million and $325 million and additional reinstatement premiums of between $80 million and $101 million spread across quarters 1 and 2 of fiscal year 2025.
    • −The fire-loss estimate remained subject to uncertainty on February 12, 2025, as management acknowledged that gross losses could exceed $2 billion, while partial claims have a longer reporting period, and the company had not determined whether to treat the Palisades and Eaton fires as one occurrence or two occurrences for reinsurance purposes.
    • −Management expected reinsurance costs to increase moderately at the July 1, 2025 renewal because of the fires, after previously expecting exposure-adjusted reinsurance costs to remain stable or decline; this shift could pressure homeowners insurance profitability.
    • −On February 12, 2025, management indicated that the 91.4% combined ratio in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2024 was likely to move over time toward a target of approximately 96%, implying a narrower underwriting profit margin compared with that strong quarter. In auto insurance, bodily injury claims severity was rising at a mid-teens rate, compared with low- to mid-single-digit increases for property damage and collision.
    • −The market valuation is a cautionary signal because the analyst consensus is Neutral and the sole target of $90 is approximately 20% below the 52-week range high of $113.06. The wide range from $74.29 to $113.06 reflects the stock's valuation sensitivity to volatility in catastrophe results and reinsurance.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus for MCY is Neutral, with a uniform target of $90; there is no dispersion between the highest and lowest targets because both equal $90. This target is approximately 20% below the 52-week range high of $113.06 and approximately 21% above its low of $74.29, reflecting a balance between improving underlying earnings and risks from fires and reinsurance costs.

    HoldAnalyst target: $90(-12.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Mercury General generate its earnings?

    Mercury General generates its revenue primarily from insurance premiums, with an additional contribution from income on its investment portfolio. Personal auto and homeowners insurance accounted for 88% of total earned premiums in fiscal year 2024. Net premiums written reached $5.4 billion in fiscal year 2024, an increase of 20.5%, while after-tax investment income was $61.5 million in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2024.

    What are the key quarter 1 fiscal year 2026 figures for MCY stock?

    The company reported revenue of $1.5 billion in quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026. Net income was $190.4 million, while earnings per share reached $3.44. EDGAR data shows gross profit of $1.5 billion under the classification provided, without a more recent breakdown of the revenue mix by segment.

    How large is Mercury General's exposure to the California fires?

    On February 12, 2025, management estimated gross losses from the January 2025 fires at between $1.6 billion and $2.0 billion, before the company's share of California FAIR Plan losses. It estimated net pre-tax losses at between $155 million and $325 million, in addition to reinstatement premiums of between $80 million and $101 million. The company had received approximately 2,700 claims and identified about 650 total losses under homeowners policies and about 150 total losses distributed across landlord, renters, condominium, and commercial property policies.

    How does reinsurance limit losses from the Palisades and Eaton fires?

    The reinsurance program provided limits of $1.29 billion per occurrence after the retention was exceeded, along with up to $20 million of excess-of-loss coverage per property. As of the morning of the February 12, 2025 call, Mercury General had billed reinsurers for $1 billion and received $531 million. However, the classification of Palisades and Eaton as one occurrence or two occurrences remained unresolved as of that date, although management said it had received no objection from reinsurers regarding the clarity of the contract language.

    Did Mercury General's underwriting improve before the January 2025 fire losses?

    The combined ratio was 91.4% in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2024 and declined to 88.3% excluding catastrophe losses. For fiscal year 2024, the combined ratio was 96%, or 90.5% excluding catastrophes. The personal auto business also recorded an underlying combined ratio of 92.1% and the homeowners business 76.1% during fiscal year 2024, but management expected the overall ratio to move over time toward a target of approximately 96%.

    What does the analysts' $90 target mean for MCY stock?

    The provided analyst consensus is Neutral, with an average price target of $90. The highest and lowest targets both equal $90, so the consensus does not present a diverse range of estimates. The target is approximately 20% below the 52-week range high of $113.06 and approximately 21% above the low of $74.29, placing it between the endpoints of the historical range rather than near its high.