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Home
Stocks
Moody's Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall65
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 9/9Better than 65% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
25
30.1x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
70
11.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
99
——Top tier
▸
Safety
26
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
50
0.83%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
53
-5.8%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
64
15▲3Around median
MCO

MCO Moody's Corporation

Moody's Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
475.14
▲ ⁦+1.66%⁩ (+7.78)
Market Cap$82.3B
Beta1.33
52w Low52w High
402.28546.88
Last Week
⁦-3.03%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.28%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+5.43%⁩
Last Year
⁦-6.46%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$475
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$533
⁦+12%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$500–$597⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$169
⁦-64%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.3⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$169–$533⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$540.60
⁦+13.8%⁩
Current Price $475.14·Median $532.50
Low
$500.00
High
$597.00
Current price
$475.14
Average target
$540.60
Street summary

Moody's (MCO) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

Moody's stock has seen a slight improvement in analyst optimism over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising from 541.31 to 545.15, an increase of 0.71%. It is noted that the current stock price (483.98) is trading below the lowest price target set by analysts (500), reflecting a collective confidence in room for price growth, especially with the stability of positive ratings (Buy and Overweight) from major institutions such as Citigroup and Barclays during July 2026.

As of 2026-08-05
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
71%
High
Target dispersion
20%
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
4
13
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.65 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
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    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-23
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    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-23
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    30.09x
    3.16x25.26x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    26.84x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    21.46x
    3.07x24.55x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.6%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    11.7%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    34.0%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    75.0%
    23.5%98.3%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    25.6%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.59x
    0.25x7.31x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    25.0%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Moody's Corporation operates through two interconnected pillars: Moody's Investors Service, which generates revenue from credit ratings for debt and transactions and from credit monitoring, and Moody's Analytics, which sells data, research, models, and risk management, compliance, and insurance solutions. In Q2 FY2026, Moody's Investors Service rated more than $2 trillion of debt for the second consecutive quarter, while Moody's Analytics' annualized recurring revenue reached approximately $3.7 billion, and retention for the twelve months ended in that quarter reached 95%.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $2.2 billion, gross profit was $1.7 billion, net income was $878 million, and GAAP diluted earnings per share was $5.03. These figures equate to a gross profit margin of approximately 77% and a net income margin of approximately 40%, while management reported that revenue grew 15%, adjusted operating income grew 25%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 31% to $4.68.

Performance was driven by both businesses, but Moody's Investors Service delivered the stronger operating leverage: ratings revenue rose 25%, transaction revenue increased 34%, and the adjusted operating margin reached 68.3%, up 410 basis points. Moody's Analytics' reported revenue grew 4%, or 8% organically and at constant currency, and recurring revenue accounted for 99% of its revenue, with an adjusted operating margin of 33.6%, up 150 basis points.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Moody's raised its FY2026 debt issuance growth forecast from low-single-digit growth to mid-single-digit growth, after rated issuance rose 33% in Q2 FY2026 to more than $2 trillion; it also raised the lower end of its adjusted diluted earnings per share forecast to a range of $16.50 to $17.
  • Artificial intelligence and data center financing represent a tangible source of ratings demand; the company rated approximately $4 billion of financing for the 350-megawatt Beacon Point DC campus, and nearly 20% of issuance exceeding $5 billion in Q2 FY2026 was related to artificial intelligence and its infrastructure.
  • Opportunities in private credit expanded, as related transactions increased by more than 40% compared with Q2 FY2025, and the company recorded more than 110 first-time mandates from new customers during Q2 FY2026; total new mandates also rose by approximately 45%.
  • Moody's Analytics maintains subscription-driven momentum, with annualized recurring revenue growing by approximately 9% to nearly $3.7 billion, including growth of 13% in KYC, 10% in banking, and 9% in insurance. The company achieved annualized recurring revenue growth of approximately 60% with one of the three largest U.S. auto and property insurers, and more than doubled it with a large Asian insurance and financial services group.
  • Integrating Moody's data into artificial intelligence platforms expands its distribution channels; on August 25, 2026, its ratings and research were integrated into Google Cloud's Gemini Enterprise for financial services. The company had also recorded more than 100 MCP connections and intelligent APIs in use or in pilot, along with more than 20 global engagements related to the Microsoft 365 Copilot Cowork skill.
  • Cash generation supports shareholder returns, as free cash flow reached $688 million in Q2 FY2026, up 47%, and the company executed approximately $2.2 billion of repurchases since the beginning of FY2026. Management raised the expected repurchase ceiling to $3 billion, while forecasting free cash flow of between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion for FY2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Moody's model combines Moody's Investors Service's sensitivity to debt market activity with Moody's Analytics' recurring revenue; recurring revenue accounted for 99% of analytics revenue, and retention reached 95%, alongside 34% growth in ratings transaction revenue in Q2 FY2026.
  • +Q2 FY2026 margins demonstrate strong operating leverage: the company-wide adjusted operating margin rose 440 basis points to 55.3%, reaching 68.3% at Moody's Investors Service and 33.6% at Moody's Analytics. The restructuring program also targets annual savings of between $300 million and $350 million when completed by the end of FY2027.
  • +The company owns data assets that are difficult to separate from its products, including more than 630 million entities and ownership links used in KYC procedures, and management says its AI-powered screening solutions reduce false-positive alerts by approximately 50%. Integrating this data into Gemini Enterprise, Amazon Quick, and Microsoft 365 Copilot Cowork strengthens its ability to reach customer workflows directly.
  • +Sources of ratings demand are expanding across data center financing, private credit, digital assets, emerging markets, and catastrophe risk bonds; in Q2 FY2026, Moody's returned to the insurance-linked securities market through a €100 million flood risk bond, and also extended its tokenization engine to Solana through Alphaledger.

Valuation

The analysts' average price target is $540.6, within a wide range of $500 to $597, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average is approximately 1% below the 52-week range high of $546.88, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target remains above the range low of $402.28; the provided data does not include a reliable price-to-earnings ratio that would permit an earnings-based comparison.

BuyAnalyst target: $540.6(+13.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How did Moody's perform in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue was $2.2 billion, gross profit was $1.7 billion, and net income was $878 million in Q2 FY2026. GAAP earnings per share was $5.03, while adjusted diluted earnings per share was $4.68, up 31%. Management stated that revenue grew 15% and adjusted operating income grew 25%, with the adjusted operating margin increasing 440 basis points to 55.3%.

What is driving Moody's Investors Service growth in FY2026?

Rated issuance exceeded $2 trillion for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 FY2026, up 33% year over year. Drivers included artificial intelligence, data center financing, private credit, and infrastructure, and nearly 20% of issuance exceeding $5 billion was related to artificial intelligence and its infrastructure. Accordingly, Moody's raised its FY2026 issuance growth forecast to mid-single-digit growth, while maintaining its business revenue growth forecast at high-single-digit growth because of the lower-yielding transaction mix.

Is Moody's benefiting from artificial intelligence, or is it facing a threat from it?

The company benefits from artificial intelligence in two ways: rating the debt needed to finance infrastructure and distributing its data within customer platforms. On August 25, 2026, Moody's ratings and research were integrated into Google Cloud's Gemini Enterprise for financial services, and it also had more than 100 MCP connections and intelligent APIs in use or in pilot in Q2 FY2026. Conversely, the call discussed the possibility of competition changing as model costs decline, and the company's response relies on data covering more than 630 million entities and on explainable, auditable outputs.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Moody's Investors Service depends on open capital markets; management warned that geopolitical risks could create risk-off periods, and that disruptions to global energy flows could raise inflation expectations and prompt companies to postpone mergers and acquisitions. The second half of FY2025 also represents a strong comparison base, after some expected issuance activity shifted into Q2 FY2026.
  • −Higher issuance volumes do not fully translate into comparable revenue growth because a larger share of the increase comes from data centers, financial institutions, and repeat issuers with lower average yields. Therefore, management maintained its Moody's Investors Service revenue growth forecast at high-single-digit growth despite raising its FY2026 issuance growth forecast.
  • −Management's outlook points to a clear slowdown after the strength of Q2 FY2026; it expects low-single-digit Moody's Investors Service revenue growth in Q3 FY2026, followed by roughly flat year-over-year revenue in Q4 FY2026. It also cautioned against extrapolating the acceleration in Moody's Analytics' annualized recurring revenue and maintained its growth forecast at high-single-digit growth.
  • −Product transitions and execution carry operational risks, as Moody's Analytics transaction revenue fell 72% to approximately $10 million due to portfolio reshaping, and by Q2 FY2026, fewer than half of insurance customers had fully migrated to the Intelligent Risk Platform. Management acknowledges that the migration path for the remaining customers may not be linear, while on-premises solutions are gradually retired over several years.
  • −Cheaper artificial intelligence models could lower competitors' barriers to entry and increase the risk of substitution for some research and analytical tools, a possibility explicitly raised during the Q2 FY2026 call. Moody's is countering this by relying on its proprietary data and auditable intelligence, but the proliferation of alternative platforms remains a competitive risk to pricing and product adoption rates.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 3, 2026, recorded eight sales and no purchases, for net sales of $2.2 million. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence to the contrary.
How stable is Moody's Analytics' revenue?

Moody's Analytics' annualized recurring revenue reached approximately $3.7 billion in Q2 FY2026, growing by approximately 9%, with retention of 95% for the twelve months ended in that quarter. Recurring revenue accounted for 99% of the business's revenue, while transaction revenue fell 72% to approximately $10 million due to portfolio reshaping. Annualized recurring revenue grew 13% in KYC, 10% in banking, and 9% in insurance, and management expects high-single-digit growth for FY2026.

What are the main risks that could pressure MCO's results in the second half of FY2026?

Geopolitical risks or disruptions to energy flows could lead to risk-off periods and delayed mergers or financing, pressuring ratings volumes. Some issuance activity also shifted into Q2 FY2026, and management expects low-single-digit Moody's Investors Service revenue growth in Q3, followed by roughly flat year-over-year revenue in Q4. In addition, a larger share of growth is coming from repeat issuers, data centers, and financial institutions, which are transactions with lower average yields than some insurance, CLO, and CMBS transactions.

How is Moody's allocating capital in FY2026?

Free cash flow reached $688 million in Q2 FY2026, up 47% year over year. The company executed approximately $2.2 billion of share repurchases since the beginning of FY2026 and raised the annual program ceiling to $3 billion. Management expects free cash flow of between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion for FY2026, and intends to return more than 130% of free cash flow to shareholders, supported by proceeds from portfolio actions.